Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[sptrawler]

China might be the BIG fish in iron buying , but it is not the only one , India will want more , South Korea has a healthy demand , Japan will probably lose it's appetite ( unless the workforce becomes mostly robots ) , i suspect LNG will increase in popularity ( in Australia , because we hate nuclear worse than coal )

let's see how the current wave of tariffs play out , if Albo zips it we may come out a winner and pick up new customers ( like Vietnam )

Absolutely spot on divs and Trump hasn't hit China as hard as he said he would with tariffs, so he is obviously wanting to talk about a soft landing with them, which would make a hell of a lot more sense.

There is no point in trying to bash them into submission it wont work, they don't have unions, EPA, courts etc, so the obvious way is to work toward an equilibrium where both get good outcomes.

Same as with the West, Trump doesn't want the U.S to be Mum to the West and look after them for free, he wants them to subscribe to the U.S miltary subscription, where they buy U.S equipment on an ongoing subscription basis.

That's a sustainable model, that the U.S can increase its GDP and manage its debt.

We just have to make sure we don't get ourselves offside with any of the big boys as they sort themselves out.

As you say the biggest problem is, our politicians can't engage the brain before the mouth, they are way too keen to feed the media chooks as Cook found out the other day. Lol

 

[TimeISmoney]

China might be the BIG fish in iron buying , but it is not the only one , India will want more , South Korea has a healthy demand , Japan will probably lose it's appetite ( unless the workforce becomes mostly robots ) , i suspect LNG will increase in popularity ( in Australia , because we hate nuclear worse than coal )

let's see how the current wave of tariffs play out , if Albo zips it we may come out a winner and pick up new customers ( like Vietnam )

India has its own IO supply and apparently it's a better grade than ours.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Absolutely spot on divs and Trump hasn't hit China as hard as he said he would with tariffs, so he is obviously wanting to talk about a soft landing with them, which would make a hell of a lot more sense.

There is no point in trying to bash them into submission it wont work, they don't have unions, EPA, courts etc, so the obvious way is to work toward an equilibrium where both get good outcomes.

Same as with the West, Trump doesn't want the U.S to be Mum to the West and look after them for free, he wants them to subscribe to the U.S miltary subscription, where they buy U.S equipment on an ongoing subscription basis.

That's a sustainable model, that the U.S can increase its GDP and manage its debt.

We just have to make sure we don't get ourselves offside with any of the big boys as they sort themselves out.

As you say the biggest problem is, our politicians can't engage the brain before the mouth, they are way too keen to feed the media chooks as Cook found out the other day. Lol

We're doing deals with their enemy, collateral damage is an understatement here.

The US has always gained financial benefits from whoever it's given to, trading in the USD alone is a big advantage to them.

The US can't drop China's exports overnight because it causes huge inflation. They will most likely add more tariffs as they go along and source products elsewhere. Trump's long-term goal is to screw China.

 

[Smurf1976]

India has its own IO supply and apparently it's a better grade than ours.

India also has 13.1% of the world's known reserves of anthracite and bituminous coal (the good stuff) as well as 1.5% of the known sub-bituminous and lignite (good enough for power stations and boilers but not much else).

Other notable countries with more than 1% of reserves:

Anthracite and bituminous:
USA = 30%
China = 17.8%
Australia = 9.7%
Russia = 9.5%
Ukraine = 4.4%
Indonesia = 3.6%
Kazakhstan = 3.5%
Poland = 2.8%
South Africa = 1.3%

Sub-bituminous and lignite:
Russia = 28.4%
Australia = 23.9%
Germany = 11.3%
USA = 9.4%
Turkey = 3.4%
Indonesia = 3.4%
China = 2.5%
Serbia = 2.2%
New Zealand = 2.1%
Poland = 1.9%
Brazil = 1.6%

The obvious elephant in the room there is the prospect of the US becoming a major coal exporter.

 

[divs4ever]

India has its own IO supply and apparently it's a better grade than ours.

having invested in a company ( that seems to have failed ) that was improving ( concentrating ) Indian iron ore deposits that were 40% Fe ,

one would ask did i invest in a fraud , or there is still some low grade deposits in India being mined , but still profitable enough to go through concentration expenses

 

[Knobby22]

"Stocks turned positive after a report said President Donald Trump was considering a one-month delay of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico."

This is unsurprising. Due to the deep meshing of parts etc between the 3 economies, if left unchanged the average price of a car would rise $3,000 with some SUVs rising $12,000 - destroying the US car industry in the process. It's policy without a strategy, without expert opinion.

 

[basilio]

Ian Verrender offers a sobering analysis of where Trumps could take the worlds stockmarkets.
He also notes that Warren Buffet is cashed to 27% of his investment portfolio. That is a record for him
He doesn't believe in the current strength of market either.

Why Donald Trump's trade war could spark a global financial market meltdown​

By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender

• Topic:Stock Market

Tue 4 MarTuesday 4 March

Financial markets like Wall Street have been nervously reacting to even the most minor economic developments. (Reuters: Andrew Kelly)

Link copied

Even before Donald Trump shattered the idea of a western alliance over the weekend, an uneasy spectre had begun to roil through the global economy.

As with the onset of any major downturn, global stock and bond markets have begun jumping at shadows, nervously over-reacting to even minor blips in economic events while simultaneously attempting to digest what just a few months ago seemed unimaginable.
Troubles are brewing on at least three fronts.

The first is the sudden rewriting or even the abandonment of global strategic alliances that have been in place for 80 years.
The second is the imminent imposition of yet more US tariffs on American friends and foes alike, a strategy that appears likely to weaken an already fragile global economy still recovering from a global pandemic, the first inflation outbreak in half a century and wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Even without those titanic forces in play, overheated financial markets already had become susceptible to a correction.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02...co-china-trade-war-australia-impact/104890302
After a fortnight in the White House, Donald Trump has fired off the big cannon, with tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. And like it or not, Australia won't be spared from the impacts.

Global markets have become hugely concentrated, as computer generated investment programs have poured money into Wall Street and, more pointedly, into a mere handful of technology stocks.

Wall Street has risen almost 55 per cent in the past two years on the back of an expected future bonanza from artificial intelligence, pioneered by just seven mega-cap companies.

If anything threatens those earnings projections — such as the emergence of a new player like DeepSeek or even a dose of earnings reality — the prospect of a severe downturn becomes ever more likely.

Trump's trade tiff with China could lead to a financial market meltdown

Even before Donald Trump shattered the idea of a western alliance over the weekend, an uneasy spectre had begun to roil through the global economy, with troubles brewing on at least three fronts.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Knobby22]

Ian Verrender offers a sobering analysis of where Trumps could take the worlds stockmarkets.
He also notes that Warren Buffet is cashed to 27% of his investment portfolio. That is a record for him
He doesn't believe in the current strength of market either.

Why Donald Trump's trade war could spark a global financial market meltdown​

By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender

• Topic:Stock Market

Tue 4 MarTuesday 4 March
View attachment 194780
Financial markets like Wall Street have been nervously reacting to even the most minor economic developments. (Reuters: Andrew Kelly)

Link copied

Even before Donald Trump shattered the idea of a western alliance over the weekend, an uneasy spectre had begun to roil through the global economy.

As with the onset of any major downturn, global stock and bond markets have begun jumping at shadows, nervously over-reacting to even minor blips in economic events while simultaneously attempting to digest what just a few months ago seemed unimaginable.
Troubles are brewing on at least three fronts.

The first is the sudden rewriting or even the abandonment of global strategic alliances that have been in place for 80 years.
The second is the imminent imposition of yet more US tariffs on American friends and foes alike, a strategy that appears likely to weaken an already fragile global economy still recovering from a global pandemic, the first inflation outbreak in half a century and wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Even without those titanic forces in play, overheated financial markets already had become susceptible to a correction.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02...co-china-trade-war-australia-impact/104890302
After a fortnight in the White House, Donald Trump has fired off the big cannon, with tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. And like it or not, Australia won't be spared from the impacts.

Global markets have become hugely concentrated, as computer generated investment programs have poured money into Wall Street and, more pointedly, into a mere handful of technology stocks.

Wall Street has risen almost 55 per cent in the past two years on the back of an expected future bonanza from artificial intelligence, pioneered by just seven mega-cap companies.

If anything threatens those earnings projections — such as the emergence of a new player like DeepSeek or even a dose of earnings reality — the prospect of a severe downturn becomes ever more likely.

Trump's trade tiff with China could lead to a financial market meltdown

Even before Donald Trump shattered the idea of a western alliance over the weekend, an uneasy spectre had begun to roil through the global economy, with troubles brewing on at least three fronts.

www.abc.net.au

On the other side of argument is what big investors are calling the Trump Put (referring to a Put option) as it is believed Trump judges himself partly by the performance of the US stockmarkets and would not take too much pain before retreating on some of the tariffs.

That said, I am proudly with Buffet at the moment. It would suit me to see a fall.

 

[DannyB0000]

On the other side of argument is what big investors are calling the Trump Put (referring to a Put option) as it is believed Trump judges himself partly by the performance of the US stockmarkets and would not take too much pain before retreating on some of the tariffs.

That said, I am proudly with Buffet at the moment. It would suit me to see a fall.

Buffet is super wealthy for a reason, he still thinks US stocks are still to expensive and tariff war escalations can’t be good for company profits long term or the economy. Sometimes cash is king and Buffett knows this. About 47% of my super money is in cash at the moment.

 

[TimeISmoney]

"Stocks turned positive after a report said President Donald Trump was considering a one-month delay of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico."

This is unsurprising. Due to the deep meshing of parts etc between the 3 economies, if left unchanged the average price of a car would rise $3,000 with some SUVs rising $12,000 - destroying the US car industry in the process. It's policy without a strategy, without expert opinion.

Trump is getting advised by the richest people in the US, people like Scott Bessent, who was a Wall Street financier.

You watch them fleece every cent from the middle class.

 

[over9k]

Buffet is super wealthy for a reason, he still thinks US stocks are still to expensive and tariff war escalations can’t be good for company profits long term or the economy. Sometimes cash is king and Buffett knows this. About 47% of my super money is in cash at the moment.

Kind of. It depends. Remember it adds 10% or 20% or whatever to the cost of a foreign produced item. So a domestic producer of it with the same costs of production could just raise their prices by 19% and still get the market. They won't sell as many items obviously but the margin would be much higher.

They also raise government revenue which can be spent/used in many other useful ways. E.g building infrastructure, which lowers transportation costs, which cuts production costs, which increases profits.

But the current wildcard is what he's going to do with the increase in revenue. That's still the very much unknown. I don't think even he knows yet (he's still thinking about it). There's nothing markets hate more than uncertainty, hence markets plunging while they hold their breath in anticipation.

Were I in his position I'd be paying the national debt down but I'm not so, you know...

 

[Knobby22]

Kind of. It depends. Remember it adds 10% or 20% or whatever to the cost of a foreign produced item. So a domestic producer of it with the same costs of production could just raise their prices by 19% and still get the market. They won't sell as many items obviously but the margin would be much higher.

They also raise government revenue which can be spent/used in many other useful ways. E.g building infrastructure, which lowers transportation costs, which cuts production costs, which increases profits.

But the current wildcard is what he's going to do with the increase in revenue. That's still the very much unknown. I don't think even he knows yet (he's still thinking about it). There's nothing markets hate more than uncertainty, hence markets plunging while they hold their breath in anticipation.

Were I in his position I'd be paying the national debt down but I'm not so, you know...

They do sell American cars internationally, including to Australia.

 

[over9k]

Same as with the West, Trump doesn't want the U.S to be Mum to the West and look after them for free, he wants them to subscribe to the U.S miltary subscription, where they buy U.S equipment on an ongoing subscription basis.

This is another one. America is going right back to isolation mode. They should thus be able to engage in a massive decrease in their military budget which is then footed by another corresponding large increase in everyone else's.

The question is how much of the american military industrial complex's revenue is then going to be lost in a net sense, i.e how much europe is going to buy from the U.S vs produce in-house/domestically.

 

[DannyB0000]

My understanding is Trump is planning to use tariffs to fund his proposed tax cuts, tariffs will make this country rich. He told his supporters other countries will end up paying for these tariffs, not them. Most economists are saying this is misleading because tariffs are payed by the importer once the imports enter the country and then passed on to consumers, unless these economists are wrong but I’m more inclined to believe them then what comes out of Trump’s mouth. But over time we will all see how things pan out with higher prices or not