Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[divs4ever]

well only a Democrat thought the economy was strong and resilient ( and even half the Progressives were seeing the cracks .. that would be the ones wanting education debt forgiveness )

it will be interesting to see if REAL data now emerges to make Trump look bad ( and if Trump calls it a financial emergency to make even bigger changes )

you have crumbling railways ( and bridges ) , rusty warships , and creaking infrastructure , now sure a lot of public spending money was being siphoned off into non-productive projects , but stuff wasn't being repaired well either

Trump won because the 'rust belt' could see the US needed change ( not the Ivy League and their mega-buck donors )

so the question is ... can Trump do enough to turn this around in the next 10 years ( assuming Vance gets elected at the next election )

 

[Knobby22]

well only a Democrat thought the economy was strong and resilient ( and even half the Progressives were seeing the cracks .. that would be the ones wanting education debt forgiveness )

it will be interesting to see if REAL data now emerges to make Trump look bad ( and if Trump calls it a financial emergency to make even bigger changes )

you have crumbling railways ( and bridges ) , rusty warships , and creaking infrastructure , now sure a lot of public spending money was being siphoned off into non-productive projects , but stuff wasn't being repaired well either

Trump won because the 'rust belt' could see the US needed change ( not the Ivy League and their mega-buck donors )

so the question is ... can Trump do enough to turn this around in the next 10 years ( assuming Vance gets elected at the next election )

I reckon he will cut infrastructure spending related to maintenance because that is what he did last time because if budget issues. But maybe this time is different.

 

[divs4ever]

I reckon he will cut infrastructure spending related to maintenance because that is what he did last time because if budget issues. But maybe this time is different.

i think more maintenance , and more incentives for business to build more ( new ) infrastructure

but that will only happen IF rates continue to fall ( business can't bet on Trump winning in 2028 , so they will have to build quick )

MAYBE Trump will cut ( more ) red tape for construction

but more importantly he must build investor/business confidence ( to invest in projects , not leave cash sitting in the short term money markets )

i don't have immense faith in Trump ( too little too late ) but i had absolutely no faith in the last administration

i will still bias my international exposure towards Asia/India ( ex Japan ) that should still have some organic growth left

 

[IFocus]

Buffet has labeled tariffs as an act of war expect markets to think the same what the outcome is who knows but expect global recession baked in which could finally rinse out weak hands blow back to Oz significant. The risk I worry about is bad actors seizing the opportunity to take territory under the new rules.

 

[divs4ever]

Buffet has labeled tariffs as an act of war

yes , they are a subset of siege warfare , BUT that doesn't always result in physical conflict

HOWEVER some areas ( like the EU ) have applied tariffs to imports for decades

i don't say Trump is right to apply tariffs BUT the US is in a mess and it is a possible better remedy than previous policy

IF the US had not run down it's own manufacturing , MAYBE tariffs would not have been necessary

the mess is not even a Biden-caused mess this has taken decades to decay this badly

i am not so sure about a global recession , a widespread one , yes that looks to be baked in the cake , i think there will be small niches that will be able to seize opportunity grow ( now the global bullies are absorbed by their own internal issues , and too busy to meddle )
now it is possible ( but i sincerely doubt it ) that Australia could be one of those nations to seize the opportunity , we grow food , have adequate energy and minerals , it might not be luxury , but grow we can ( if we wanted to )