Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought I'd start a stock and economic thread on Trump' next Presidency and his effect on economies and stocks. He has already moved markets, indices and commodities and he has not yet even been inaugurated. I subscribe at a cheap rate to the New York Times, ( to do Wordle and share results with some fellow Wordlers ).

It is an absolute left wing rag full of the usual woke propaganda. I'll probably not renew.

Below is an email I received this evening from the NYT which seems reasonable in it's assessments.

President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policy is already roiling global markets. Brendan McDermid/Reuters​

The other Trump trade​

Investors and policymakers are getting a dose of Trumponomics déjà vu this morning.

Global stocks are falling, and the dollar is climbing. The volatility comes after President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on the United States’ biggest trading partners — Canada, China and Mexico — on Day 1 in office in an apparent effort to clamp down on the flow of cross-border drugs, like fentanyl, and migrants.

The latest:

Trump wants to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico “on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said on Truth Social. He also wants an “additional” 10 percent tariff on imports from China, which Trump blames for the fentanyl crisis, a charge that Beijing has repeatedly disputed. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso fell sharply against the dollar. Europe, Japan and South Korea weren’t even mentioned in Trump’s announcement, but stocks have fallen there, too. That suggests rising fears that a new trade war could scramble global supply chains and dent profits. Automakers are some of the hardest hit stocks, with Volkswagen, Stellantis and Nissan, which run manufacturing operations in Mexico, all down.

Today’s losses have reversed some of yesterday’s “Bessent bounce” rally. Investors were relieved after Trump picked Scott Bessent, the market-friendly hedge fund mogul, to run the Treasury Department.

But the reverberations show that it’s Trump calling the shots. The president-elect has made no secret of his desire to use tariffs to further his America-first agenda, and he has yet to announce his pick to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Another tariff supporter, Robert Lighthizer, is in the running.)

Trump’s latest threats may be just a negotiating tactic. That’s the belief of some Trump backers, including Bill Ackman, the billionaire financier. But they are a reminder of how Trump set off alarm bells across diplomatic channels and international markets during his first term often via social media posts. “Waking up to check the tweets for any policy announcements could become the norm,” Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note this morning.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada spoke to Trump about trade and border security after the president-elect’s announcement, The Times reported.

China pushed back. “No one will win a trade war,” a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.

Tying the tariffs to border security could make negotiations even trickier. But given the seemingly intractable nature of the U.S. border crisis, it sets a high bar for successful trade negotiations. On the flip side, calling the measures a national security imperative might bolster Trump’s legal authority to bypass Congress in enacting the measures. A reminder: once tariffs are introduced, they’re not easy to roll back.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Bye-Bye, What Americans Buy - Ep 995



as annoying as i find Peter Schiff's voice and ideas , i still listen to him

is he correct this coming era ?

i suspect Trump is 50% bluff , but what if he isn't

China will win because most of China's trading partners aren't terrified China will seize their assets ( and they have more hard-working people

i still think India ( and Indonesia ) offer the better path to growth

China will answer tariffs with selective export bans , look for an explosion in 'black-market trading '

 

[TimeISmoney]

To put things into greater perspective, Michael Burry has sold out of US stocks and bought into Chinese stocks and Buffet seems to be holding a lot of cash. I suspect things aren't going to be great in the months ahead.

 

[divs4ever]

To put things into greater perspective, Michael Burry has sold out of US stocks and bought into Chinese stocks and Buffet seems to be holding a lot of cash. I suspect things aren't going to be great in the months ahead.

i see troubled times ahead , but some positions are so damn sweet ( where i am up more than 10X on div. payers ) and the ones i would consider dumping .. i can't find a better place to invest the proceeds .

but i DO expect i will have some sleepless nights and some tough choices( and that is half the battle .. ready to do something , ( not paralyzed )

maybe i will get through this ( relatively ) OK , like i did in March 2020 or maybe not , but at least i have some plans , a little reserve cash

 

[Smurf1976]

One practical issue is Trump supports the construction of more LNG export facilities in the US.

Compared to not doing so, that should raise US domestic market natural gas prices and lower international LNG prices, noting at present there's quite a gap between them.

 

[houtman]

One practical issue is Trump supports the construction of more LNG export facilities in the US.

Compared to not doing so, that should raise US domestic market natural gas prices and lower international LNG prices, noting at present there's quite a gap between them.

Yes the cheap gas gives the US a lot of local advantages.

Chemical, manufacturing, fertilizers, cooking, along with residential heating all enjoy the lower price.

Tariffs along with increased local prices = ?

There could be a long queue forming behind Trudeau.

China pushed back. “No one will win a trade war,” a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.

I'd say that too, if I was winning the trade war.

I'm looking fwd to the 1st week of the Presidency, it feels like it's now or never for the USA to maintain its relevance over the long term.

Not selling my gold shares though.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Putin is starting to push back on Trump's threats.