ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[vishalt]

Last time I checked UBS still retained its $22 target on ZFX.

The stock moves rapidly but its P/E ratio is low and it has nice expansion plans, I think you and I expected a bit too much Nyden - ah I can only remember those days when Zinifex was $5 and then gave out 70c dividends at just $10, $13 and it went UP on ex-dividend days.

But yeah I bailed out at $21 a few months back .

 

[roland]

Last time I checked UBS still retained its $22 target on ZFX.

The stock moves rapidly but its P/E ratio is low and it has nice expansion plans, I think you and I expected a bit too much Nyden - ah I can only remember those days when Zinifex was $5 and then gave out 70c dividends at just $10, $13 and it went UP on ex-dividend days.

But yeah I bailed out at $21 a few months back .

Zinifex has been an amazing story and is still amongst the best top dividend yielders. Their management is top tier and gives confidence with their decisions. You did a great job picking the $21 top - I got greedy and expected more ..... $21+ and dividends would have been huge for me, but I stuffed up and lost both the huge capitol gain and dividends this half year. There is still plenty of upside with Zinifex, but not right now. Thank you ZFX, thank you Ball Boys - see you next tournament!

 

[michael_selway]

Zinifex has been an amazing story and is still amongst the best top dividend yielders. Their management is top tier and gives confidence with their decisions. You did a great job picking the $21 top - I got greedy and expected more ..... $21+ and dividends would have been huge for me, but I stuffed up and lost both the huge capitol gain and dividends this half year. There is still plenty of upside with Zinifex, but not right now. Thank you ZFX, thank you Ball Boys - see you next tournament!

Hi at $21 it was a great sell i think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 274.1 229.1 167.4 113.6
DPS 140.0 127.5 90.4 57.5

thx

MS

 

[uhu]

"Zambia the favourite

Some companies, such as Zinifex, are willing to consider investing in Zambia but not in the Democratic Republic of Congo. BlackRock's Evy Hambro notes Zambia seems to be "better accepted" by the market as a place to do business, particularly given the recent licensing review."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...r-nature/2007/10/28/1193555533105.html?page=2

Well, so Zambia will be an other potential place for Zinifex. But this is an exploration, not "the" acquisition.
An arabs newspaper is writing Nyrstar's price will be around 20, this between 18 and 23 euro, so, not bad.
Have you got tips what company be the target of ZFX? (a one billion size target...)
Only aussie company? Or other?

 

[Nyden]

Quite a bit of pre-market volume there today!
Suprised no one has discussed the nystar results?

Thought that went rather well, and ZFX still own a decent portion I believe.

Then of course, there's this http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/10/29/afx4271533.html

Always helps the sentiment

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Fitch Ratings said it has affirmed Zinifex Ltd's 'BB+' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating with a stable outlook, following the announcement by the Australian base metals miner that it had successfully completed the public offer of shares in Belgian zinc producer Nyrstar.

'The very significant cash injection from the public offer, an ungeared balance sheet and strong cash flows from existing mining assets provide a strong foundation for Zinifex to grow its higher-margin mining business,' Fitch said.

The initial public offering of Nyrstar, the joint venture started by Belgian materials group Umicore SA and Zinifex, saw 100 mln shares offered at 20 eur per share, the company said.

 

[silence]

Hi, the announcement was good, was it not? I was just wondering what was the general reason behind the ~$1 drop?

 

[eMark]

Hi, the announcement was good, was it not? I was just wondering what was the general reason behind the ~$1 drop?

ZFX went ex-dividend yesterday. Usually results in a drop in the share price the day after. There you go.

 

[silence]

Oh, silly me. I thought that was next week, for some reason.
Still a more than the dividend decrease though, hopefully it will pick up today.

 

[drmb]

Oh, silly me. I thought that was next week, for some reason. Still a more than the dividend decrease though, hopefully it will pick up today.

$1 is about the value of the ff divie + 30% tax. I don't expect the sp to go up today since the GFMS Base Metal Indexx and the Dow non-ferrous metal index are down overnight, copper and zinc spot both down www.kitcometals.com and see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=arfF_lzbhWw8&refer=commodities

If you hold longterm this should be a blip down imo before heading up once the loot from the float starts to result in aquisitions.

 

[Lachlan6]

With Zinc prices struggling a little at the moment, ZFX has defied the zinc market by staying relatively strong in the last few months. The move up since August however is clearly part of what could be considered a larger zig zag corrective pattern. Regardless, the overall move looks corrective and I am expecting lower prices. It is currently in a wave iii in the wave (C), so I am looking for a target of $15.45 for this wave, which also coincides with the support in September. The perfect time to short ZFX was yesterday with the gap up prior to the dividend, and placing a stop at $18.86.

 

[Nyden]

I'm a little surprised by today's loss really, yesterday we already gave back the $1 from exdiv, today just seems like overkill

They need to start making those acquisitions dammit :

Hopefully fed will cut rates tonight, and ZFX will be back in the 17s in the rally


Lachlan, can you really count what happened in a correction as part of its pattern? Granted, ZFX does like to constantly zig-zag! (Something I hope will stop after they start spending the cash) But, I just don't see $15.45 unless we have another correction.

Low 16s/ high 15s seems to have become its new zig for the zag

 

[Lachlan6]

Hello Nyden. Elliott Wave would show that the movement in ZFX since July is part of an overall corrective pattern. Look what has happened today for example. Down over 4%. Often the wave iii is the most impulsive (in this case down), so gaps like this are not unexpectant. I believe the $15.45 target will most likely end this wave iii down.

 

[blablabla]

A very accurate call, Lachlan6. Down more than 4% today, most of the fall being in the overnight gap.

Zinifex price had been supported by the Nyrstar disposal and by holders waiting for the $0.70 franked dividend. The amount of cash raised for Zinifex by the Nyrstar IPO although substantial turned out to be lower than some had hoped and now that it has gone XD it appears that many have headed for the exit. With soft zinc prices at the moment the SP could have further to go down.

As a result of the last USA interest rate cut, many base metal prices saw increased demand and rising prices in the short term. If USA lowers the rate again this week then base metals may rise unless buyers have already factored another rate cut into prices.

Not holding any open position in ZFX at the moment as I am now in wait-and-see mode and cannot predict tomorrow's action. If Zinifex falls again tomorrow then this will confirm the trend that Lachlan6 has predicted. Such a strong performer as Zinifex will eventually bounce and it will be interesting to see what they decide to spend their big cash balance on.

 

[YELNATS]

They need to start making those acquisitions dammit :

But, I just don't see $15.45 unless we have another correction.

I really do hope they spend their new loot wisely and not like a sailor in a dockside bar.:

If the price goes down to $15.45 or thereabouts seems it would be top-up time.

 

[Nyden]

I really do hope they spend their new loot wisely and not like a sailor in a dockside bar.:

If the price goes down to $15.45 or thereabouts seems it would be top-up time.

Oh, without a doubt if it hits that I'll top up
Well, if the fed cut the rates by 50bp, even if a cut is factored in; we'll see a rally :

What can I say, I'm an optimist! At least when it comes to money, in every other aspect in life in a cynical pessimist

 

[TheAnalyst]

At this stage the dividend and earnings per share forecasts are to be ignored, as they do not take into account new discoveries and mine extensions, as well as the increase in price and demand, ZFX at the moment is good value, and probably just gets down to your time frame of holding the stock,don't forget its next dividend by March next year, and the zinc prices are at a retracement at the moment, once the iron ore prices are sorted out at the China meetings, then more than likely the market will resume, also if we get a second fed rate cut tomorrow, that will be two in a row and will be the likely continuation of the bull market, if we get a third U.S. fed rate cut in December or before that will be 3 in a row and as history states, almost every time there has been 3 U.S. fed rate cuts in a row, BULL MARKET, and three rate increases, the confirmation of a bear market.

Its ex div as well, and a lot of short termer's are jumping off from that buying opportunity in August.....and their huge gains.....

 

[uhu]

Let's see last day trading in USA.
TECK COMINCO CL B -4,98%
FREEPORT MCMORAN B -3,27%
etc

So, it was likely Zinifex goes down. But, I am suprised also, because ZFX's -5,5% is more...but that's what I had to notice in tha last months, Zinifex overreact US and commodity prices events. Few days ago ZFX was around 18 aud (almost 19 with dividend) and nox below 17.

What I don't understand why ZFX could not reach the july maximum as most of miners could do in Australia, US and America.

The top price was around 21...it seems very high and far

So, what do you think what is the reason of the share price's difference between ZFX and "the others"? I trusted (trust) to ZFX but I am really disappointed. I like this stock but I would better like profit.

 

[Nyden]

Let's see last day trading in USA.
TECK COMINCO CL B -4,98%
FREEPORT MCMORAN B -3,27%
etc

So, it was likely Zinifex goes down. But, I am suprised also, because ZFX's -5,5% is more...but that's what I had to notice in tha last months, Zinifex overreact US and commodity prices events. Few days ago ZFX was around 18 aud (almost 19 with dividend) and nox below 17.

What I don't understand why ZFX could not reach the july maximum as most of miners could do in Australia, US and America.

The top price was around 21...it seems very high and far

So, what do you think what is the reason of the share price's difference between ZFX and "the others"? I trusted (trust) to ZFX but I am really disappointed. I like this stock but I would better like profit.

I think the whole 'zinc surplus' of next year is keeping some buyers away.
Being a 'one commodity' company is always dangerous in that regard, which is why I'm glad they're looking to branch out into becoming more diverse.

I still say they should go for OXR, they cover a fair few commods these days; would basically be a pre-packaged box of what they want!

ZFX Might have been a good little buy today, if the feds cut the rates with some well spoken words behind them; we could definately recover the 5% tomorrow, and then some.

 

[uhu]

"Buy the romour, sell the news"...I thik there are a lot of romour with Zinifex. It has got more than 1 md dollar to acquire other minig (likely copper, gold), so, production will be much higher than 2007. And yes, there are bad news about zinc'prices.

So, in ZFX's case: Sell the romour, buy the news.

 

[legs]

possibly people are selling down ZFX after JBM takeover offer was made?? Possibly they held ZFX hoping it was a takeover target? It will take a while now for the next takeover..
Who knows what the punters are thinking on selling it down...