ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[GREENS]

KZL is a big chance at being a target... watch out for the move on it. They have some good prospects.

Although Oxiana would probably be the most likely suitor of ASX listed companies for Zinifex, Legs I agree that many have looked past Kagara. Many assume Kagara is just a Zinc/Lead Miner when in fact they earn more of their revenue from copper than Zinc. In addition the company has substantial exposure to Gold with the Mungana and Red Dome developments, Nickel at their Lounge Lizard permit and the massive undeveloped Admiral Bay Zn-Ld-Ag deposit, which would take over in perfect time for the closure of century. They definitely get the tick for being an efficient producer and have zillions of attractive Zn-Ld-Cu targets up in north Queensland to drill out over the next few years. The only problem with Kagara is that a lot of their big projects aren’t due to come online till around 2010 through to 2012. Zinifex may want these type of projects, yet ones that are currently producing. Not expecting a move on KZL, but wouldn’t be complaining if it did get a takeover bid :.

 

[mlevit]

I have been eyeing ZFX for a while now. If ZFX would drop to around the $15 - $16 mark, a definite buy in would be recommended?

I currently have mainly blue chip stocks and have a low risk portfolio, if I were to buy into ZFX, would I be looking at a short term hold? or mainly depending on the price?

What do you guys see ZFX climbing too if the a takeover is announced? and at what would a good selling price point be if buying in at $15/$16?

 

[TheAnalyst]

I would like to know what others think? I am at the opinion that Zinifix has dropped, is due to being ex div, then the risk that more zinc and lead are coming on to the market, as well as the market spot price decreasing, the risk to earnings, due to zfx being involved in only two metals, and not having other metals to supply, the net loss in equity to zfx, to any other miner it takes over, due to the larger price premium that a buyer must pay to a target company.

 

[overule]

Personally, i think ZFX will drop a bit more due to weaker base metal and surplus of Zinc. Having said that, they might sustain a small rally before Christmas but i don't see them breaking the record price anytime soon.

 

[BankRoller]

a very interesting article in the age today, over more consolidation in the resources market. special attention paid to ZFX and OXR.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22694191-5005200,00.html

 

[legs]

Personally, i think ZFX will drop a bit more due to weaker base metal and surplus of Zinc. Having said that, they might sustain a small rally before Christmas but i don't see them breaking the record price anytime soon.

I dont believe there is a huge surplus, as seen in these graphs. And believe the price will bounce back very soon.

 

[overule]

I dont believe there is a huge surplus, as seen in these graphs. And believe the price will bounce back very soon.

Yes, i agree there will not be a huge surplus but i don't see ZFX's SP breaking the record price (ie. $21) in the near future. I will be surprise if they manage to climb up to $19 given the current condition.

 

[roland]

Sometimes reading the LME stock levels doesn't necessarily show the whole picture. It needs to be taken in context with other factors. LME stock levels being low is like any other commodity - low stocks either mean, low availability or low demand. Do your research and use the LME stock levels and price indicators as part of the jigsaw puzzle - there is a lot more to it, if it were that easy, then Zinifex's SP would be at an all time high ...

 

[uhu]

I dont believe there is a huge surplus, as seen in these graphs. And believe the price will bounce back very soon.

Could you explain me why you think this? What do these graphics show?

About ZFX's price...
Well, in my opinion, there will be more drop in short-term, and we have to wait the acquisition(s). ZFX says it will not be before next February.

So, I will hold my shares. If acquisition will be succeed (they find a good company), I won't sell my shares. But if they can't find a good target in good price (so it is not enough the good target - see Garmin's acquisition), I think I will have to sell. (realise loss).

So, I go the "bear's cave" as winter coming and at next spring I will check what was happened.

 

[Nyden]

With Zinc prices struggling a little at the moment, ZFX has defied the zinc market by staying relatively strong in the last few months. The move up since August however is clearly part of what could be considered a larger zig zag corrective pattern. Regardless, the overall move looks corrective and I am expecting lower prices. It is currently in a wave iii in the wave (C), so I am looking for a target of $15.45 for this wave, which also coincides with the support in September. The perfect time to short ZFX was yesterday with the gap up prior to the dividend, and placing a stop at $18.86.

Well I must say, I am impressed
What does your crystal ball predict next :

We need some positive news, an explosion at a rival zinc mine would do nicely; gosh, isn't that ghoulish of me

 

[uhu]

Well I must say, I am impressed
What does your crystal ball predict next :

We need some positive news, an explosion at a rival zinc mine would do nicely; gosh, isn't that ghoulish of me

A strike would be enough.

An other interesting aspect. Articles say one of reason of zinc surplus is growth of Zinifex's production. So, this is - I am sorry, I don't know the exact phrase - the "trap of 22".
I mean Zinifex produces more zinc (+13% than a year ago), so, zinc price falls, so, ZFX share price falls.... we have a phrase what I can translete "devil's circle".

 

[drmb]

A strike would be enough. An other interesting aspect. Articles say one of reason of zinc surplus is growth of Zinifex's production. So, this is - I am sorry, I don't know the exact phrase - the "trap of 22". I mean Zinifex produces more zinc (+13% than a year ago), so, zinc price falls, so, ZFX share price falls.... we have a phrase what I can translete "devil's circle".

Catch 22 is an example of a "disambiguation", or a double bind, comes from funny satiical novel "Catch 22", by Joseph Heller an Anerican author, and this his one and only "hit" now part of great US anti-war literature. Came out at time of Vietnam War but was set at the end of 2nd World War with main charater Yossarian who is centre of series of circular arguments

There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one's safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn't have to; but if he didn't want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle.
"That's some catch, that Catch-22," Yossarian observed.
"It's the best there is," Doc Daneeka agreed.

If you are mad you can go home from the war, but if you say you are mad you can't be mad. And the circle is a simple one eg seriously disturbed mental nuts are allowed to continue fighting since they won't report medically unfit. If they did they wouldn't be mad!

My favorite charater is Major Major, who became "Major Major Major" by accident. Enough already, read the book or watch the movie!

But I don't think ZFX is in a double bind, I think it is trapped at the moment by falling POZ die to lack of demand as we wait for the sub prime mess to sort itself out.

 

[mlevit]

With the up and coming interest rate rise this Wednesday and the over supply of Zinc in the market, does anyone believe ZFX might drop below $15?

 

[Nyden]

With the up and coming interest rate rise this Wednesday and the over supply of Zinc in the market, does anyone believe ZFX might drop below $15?

I'm a little down on ZFX right now ; so I can see it happening, yes :
But, I doubt it would be a far drop from that.

Waiting for Feb is no good (to make acquisitions); the shares may drop further; and they'll lose trading power in the value of their shares. Unless of course zinifex joins in on the santa rally, if there even is one!

 

[roland]

Has anyone had the courage to download and review the substantial shareholder change document of 292 pages? A quick overview would be nice.

 

[Nyden]

Has anyone had the courage to download and review the substantial shareholder change document of 292 pages? A quick overview would be nice.

: It's nothing fantastic - Credit Suisse has purchased about 7% of ZFX is all

Well, I guess it's great for sentiment though!

 

[adobee]

I saw the end of a show on CFDs last night .. which mentioned that you take take margins on ZFX .. Is anyone doing this or able to explain to a beginer how it works , I think I would be pretty comfortable doing this on Zinifex at the moment.. ?

 

[Nyden]

I just had a thought, Credit Suisse - with regards to Oxiana, & Zinifex...

This was taken from an article from the 3rd

Speculation of a merger was stoked yesterday by a research note from Credit Suisse, which sees Zinifex as a logical fit for Oxiana. "We believe that Zinifex is a logical incremental step towards achieving Oxiana's growth vision," the note said.

And now; Credit Suisse - the ones who did the research, have suddenly bought 6.18% ?

Perhaps they think this may happen sooner, than later (or at all .

 

[legs]

I just had a thought, Credit Suisse - with regards to Oxiana, & Zinifex...

This was taken from an article from the 3rd



And now; Credit Suisse - the ones who did the research, have suddenly bought 6.18% ?

Perhaps they think this may happen sooner, than later (or at all .

Credit Suisse have been known to take stakes in potential takeover targets and have a hugely successful record. I am holding as I got in at 15.81 on previous stockmarket downturn. Hope they are correct here too. I would be surprised though if they were taken over. Would have to be BHP or someone with that type of clout!

 

[mishu]

Stocks like zfx and pem must be good buying at these levels and with lead continuing in high demand and bringing historically high figures.