ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[roland]

Ahhh, Zinifex - both the joy and the disappointment in my life

I have a ton of these babies, after near on 200 trades in the last 3 years I must say I have never lost. Although my holdings are not looking so right now, my strategy is to hold and keep buying as it falls - worst case is that you will get more dividends - these guys are one of the top 10 dividend yield stocks on the market - so no panic for me.

As for Nyrstar ... well, as suggested, being cashed is a good place to be, more money for exploration, more money for dividends

.... and then, there are always those takeover rumours ....

 

[uhu]

takeover...

Yes, I have choosen ZFX an OXR not only because both of them are good stocks, but a lot of newspaper have been writing about the possible merger. I think a lot of people are waiting for this...

And, I am courious what for. ex. BHP, Rio or other giants will do the lot os cash...

Well, Rio has Alcan...but there is Freeport, Xs...(the swiss) and others....so I think there will be more mergers or acquisitions in the middle-term future.

Anyway, yes, most of analysts claim zinc will fall in the near-term future, and, there will be surplus in the next 3 years.

But.

These analysts underestimate the growth of SE and E-Asia. Who thought 20 years ago that a more than 10% GDP growth is beleiveble....for 20 or more years.
And an other boom is coming. Yes, chinese (indian, etc) people want own car...so steel...so copper, zinc..

So, I am a bit disappointed, but not pessimistic....and I beleive aussie dollar also, for me (non-aussie investor) this is also an important factor.

Does anyone know why ZFX chose Umicore?

 

[roland]

Ho hum, Zinifex is going to give me ulcers - I'm almost certain of it. I have 100 grand tied up in this little doggy just hanging out for the dividends.

After the last few weeks, I am starting to get pessimistic about the ex div run up in SP - I feel so silly about not selling out at $21, or even the numerous times when I could have pulled decent profit.

Having said that, it is very hard to hold a grudge - I have traded this stock around 200 times in 3 years and have made a bucket. But the shine really has come off Zinifex for me.

Well, I'll hold and continue buying at $17 or below - at least until ex div. Any other ZFX holders feeling dismayed??????

 

[Nyden]

Ho hum, Zinifex is going to give me ulcers - I'm almost certain of it. I have 100 grand tied up in this little doggy just hanging out for the dividends.

After the last few weeks, I am starting to get pessimistic about the ex div run up in SP - I feel so silly about not selling out at $21, or even the numerous times when I could have pulled decent profit.

Having said that, it is very hard to hold a grudge - I have traded this stock around 200 times in 3 years and have made a bucket. But the shine really has come off Zinifex for me.

Well, I'll hold and continue buying at $17 or below - at least until ex div. Any other ZFX holders feeling dismayed??????

Exdiv isn't all you have to look forward to though - On the 29th we find out what price the Nystar IPO went out for; now, I guess if it turns out demand was higher than expected ; all of that cash flow will push the SP higher (hopefully!) as ZFX begin searching for copper sights to buy out.

Zinc may be dogging it at the moment, but lead has been rather hot lately.

 

[BankRoller]

yep indeed the 29th presents as an important day for zfx. however, I'm more keen to ponder on the copper co. zfx have their eyes on. OXR is an obvious target, but PNA?? does neone have thoughts??

 

[roland]

yep indeed the 29th presents as an important day for zfx. however, I'm more keen to ponder on the copper co. zfx have their eyes on. OXR is an obvious target, but PNA?? does neone have thoughts??

Hi, I didn't see any news on ZFX hunting for a t/o target, I thought the more likely option was that ZFX was the takeover target. Do you have some reference for this?

 

[Nyden]

Hi, I didn't see any news on ZFX hunting for a t/o target, I thought the more likely option was that ZFX was the takeover target. Do you have some reference for this?

Err, I shall have to look

Well, it's been known for a while that ZFX has intentions on acquiring some copper holdings - and with this new lot of cash flow coming in; this represents both that, and some excess of cash to go to the next dividend

I'm sure you can find all this out by typing in zinifex into the google news search; I'm too tired at the moment

 

[BankRoller]

Some interesting news and snippets wrt to PNA, OXR and ZFX

Interesting quote in the media recently with respect to Oxiana, ZFX and PNA. All mentioned in the one breath. "Miner Oxiana gained 5c to $3.79 after negotiations for a merger with Zinifex reportedly stalled. Zinifex dropped 11c to $18.29. Pan Australian Resources, which is developing a copper and gold mine in Laos, added 1.5c to 81c. Pan Australian was rated "outperform" in new coverage by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Young, who set a price target of $1.10 on the shares." - Resources bounce leads market gain - SMH Oct 6th '07.

Another media release:
"Zinifex said it was targeting mid-tier copper assets which contained at least 1 million tonnes of metal for an annual production rate of 100,000 tonnes a year." - Zinifex out to conquer new territory - The Age Oct 5th '07.

We can see from recent media releases that ZFX is after a Copper producer, so if OXR has fallen through. Who is next??? Just trying to put two and two together with these recent media releases.

refer to my post number 1736 and other threads near that time

 

[roland]

Some interesting news and snippets wrt to PNA, OXR and ZFX

Interesting quote in the media recently with respect to Oxiana, ZFX and PNA. All mentioned in the one breath. "Miner Oxiana gained 5c to $3.79 after negotiations for a merger with Zinifex reportedly stalled. Zinifex dropped 11c to $18.29. Pan Australian Resources, which is developing a copper and gold mine in Laos, added 1.5c to 81c. Pan Australian was rated "outperform" in new coverage by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Young, who set a price target of $1.10 on the shares." - Resources bounce leads market gain - SMH Oct 6th '07.

Another media release:
"Zinifex said it was targeting mid-tier copper assets which contained at least 1 million tonnes of metal for an annual production rate of 100,000 tonnes a year." - Zinifex out to conquer new territory - The Age Oct 5th '07.

We can see from recent media releases that ZFX is after a Copper producer, so if OXR has fallen through. Who is next??? Just trying to put two and two together with these recent media releases.

refer to my post number 1736 and other threads near that time

Thanks for that BR, gives me some renewed confidence. I suppose the Nyrstar deal will give ZFX a fair bit of cash to play with. It's just that stupid LME Zn price keeps devaluing my holdings. I read on Kitco that they are expecting further Zn weakness and surplus which is expected to increase smelting prices. So Zinifex will not directly benefit from higher smelting pices due to the sell off.

Copper sounds good, prices are very low with huge upside potential. I guess that since I am holding so much ZFX it is very nerve racking. Not only that but I have a major percentage of my portfolio in PDN which has an SP depreciation almost instep with ZFX

 

[roland]

ZFX is down again on pre-open. Zinc and Lead are both down around 3% on the LME. Looks like another disappointing day for ZFX - where is the Ex Div excitement???

 

[nomore4s]

ZFX is down again on pre-open. Zinc and Lead are both down around 3% on the LME. Looks like another disappointing day for ZFX - where is the Ex Div excitement???

No point buying in for a D/E if the stock is weak before Ex D/E, buying in for a 70c D/E only to lose $1.00 on the stock doesn't really make sense. With the general market volatility and zinc looking weak the 70c D/E isn't really that attractive to some atm .

 

[roland]

ZFX need to employ a better PR manager. What a lack-lustre boring quarterly report .....sheesh .................

 

[roland]

I'm out! Biggest trade for me ever - sold 5,500 shares, feels kind of funny being so cashed up now. Need to go buy something else now. The weekness in ZFX along with the prospect of a $1.00 drop next Tuesday rattled me.....

 

[qr2007]

I'm out! Biggest trade for me ever - sold 5,500 shares, feels kind of funny being so cashed up now. Need to go buy something else now. The weekness in ZFX along with the prospect of a $1.00 drop next Tuesday rattled me.....

Congratulation Roland!!!!

You have made the right decision ... so did I, out today at the high 17 .. try to hang around for D/E but it does not worth it??? .70 for $1 ????

Cheers ... time for a beer ????

 

[roland]

Congratulation Roland!!!!

You have made the right decision ... so did I, out today at the high 17 .. try to hang around for D/E but it does not worth it??? .70 for $1 ????

Cheers ... time for a beer ????

A beer??? I reckon, maybe a few. Since I brew my own, I always have a good supply

Crikey, it's really such a weight off my mind. I'd been tring to average it down, but only got it down to $17.71, so to get out at $17.87 I still made a few bucks - I think I'll go and play a little more with BNB - the intraday $1 swings are heaps of fun and I can handle being stuck holding BNB since the broker forecast is around $35.

Hope you made a profit qr

 

[Nyden]

A beer??? I reckon, maybe a few. Since I brew my own, I always have a good supply

Crikey, it's really such a weight off my mind. I'd been tring to average it down, but only got it down to $17.71, so to get out at $17.87 I still made a few bucks - I think I'll go and play a little more with BNB - the intraday $1 swings are heaps of fun and I can handle being stuck holding BNB since the broker forecast is around $35.

Hope you made a profit qr

Hmm, I can understand why you've been anxious with a buy in of that price!

I was lucky enough to buy all of mine for 16.70 during the correction. So, I'm sitting rather comfortably awaiting those dividends.

Zinifex has a fair history of ups & downs, I hope you find yourself a good buy OXR still looks good! Who knows, if you go with OXR; might just end up with Zinifex again one day :

 

[roland]

Hmm, I can understand why you've been anxious with a buy in of that price!

I was lucky enough to buy all of mine for 16.70 during the correction. So, I'm sitting rather comfortably awaiting those dividends.

Zinifex has a fair history of ups & downs, I hope you find yourself a good buy OXR still looks good! Who knows, if you go with OXR; might just end up with Zinifex again one day :

Thanks Nyden, I've been a long time ZFX holder (around 200 trades in 3 years) I actually feel I have lost a friend I generally take profits as I go and hold when it comes to ExDiv. I had some holdings at $16.80 but got caught holding some at $19 that I had after the drop from $21. It didn't recover the way it normally does. I believe the broker consensus is around $17.80 - it was $21 about 6 months ago

 

[roland]

Actually, I just checked Aegis Research, and their 12 month target on Zinifex is $17.14, maybe there are better targets from other brokers

 

[qr2007]

A beer??? I reckon, maybe a few. Since I brew my own, I always have a good supply

Crikey, it's really such a weight off my mind. I'd been tring to average it down, but only got it down to $17.71, so to get out at $17.87 I still made a few bucks - I think I'll go and play a little more with BNB - the intraday $1 swings are heaps of fun and I can handle being stuck holding BNB since the broker forecast is around $35.

Hope you made a profit qr

Hey Roland,

Yes, just a bit but I am happy with my decision.
I think SP will go up a bit more after the market closed and tonight overseas performance but its ok for me



did you???

 

[roland]

Hey Roland,

Yes, just a bit but I am happy with my decision.
I think SP will go up a bit more after the market closed and tonight overseas performance but its ok for me



did you???

Yes, I did - in 3 years of trading ZFX I have never made a loss. My personal feeling is that Zinc has lost some appeal due to expected surplus through 2008. ZFX will suffer from that, but Lead is on the rise - so a bit of an offest. Smelting costs for Zinc are expected to rise, so ZFX selling off it's smelting business will not benefit. Some say ZFX is on the lookout for acquiring a Copper asset and funds from the Nyrstar float are expected to help - so long as it is fully subscribed. If Nyrstar provides the expected funds, then Zinifex will be cashed up for either a Copper purchase or a return to shareholders.

My personal strategy - if ZFX falls below $17.00 tomorrow then buy - maybe even at $17.20 just for dividend return (remembering that SP is expected to fall the same value as the dividend - short term). The 29th will have an impact when ZFX releases data regarding the Nyrstar float - could rock the boat if not fully subscribed. I expect the result will be good since the smelting business is expected to provide higher returns from surplus Zn.

If I missed the target tomorrow at $17.00, then maybe Monday will give 1 last day. Otherwise wait until Tuesday for anticipated SP fall and buy light and start again with small accumulations and cost averaging. ExDiv SP drop should revover within 2 or 3 weeks so long as Nyrstar news was good - otherwise may take longer.

Sort of sounds complicated, but everyone has their own style with their favourite stock.

I am a little addicted to Zinifex and know full well that there are better opportunities out there - but I like the challenge