ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[toothfairy]

If the price of Zn stays @ present level or go even lower, will there be any hiccups selling the smelters at 3 billions? Then there is the hurdle of the public offers of the new company. I am just a bit worried if POZ goes south by that time! Is the deal solid as rock (or zinc for that matter?)

 

[michael_selway]

Zinc inventory has only risen 10 - 15k since its low in early Dec. According to international zinc group zinc will be in deficit this year. If so, can view current price as low (or close to low) for this year.

Lead will add to the bottom line.

Lastly what will ZFX do with all that cash once smelting operations are sold? If they announce a special dividend it could spur the price.

Hiyeah ist a decifit in 2007, people forgot!

ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 219.9 325.0 266.3 182.5
DPS 80.0 184.0 145.1 78.9

thx

MS

 

[LeGorfou]

ZFX have gone very quiet on the barge in the Gulf. Has anyone heard anything about when or if it will be back in action or if they have arranged a replacement?

Health and Safety are involved as well - is there any chance that this will delay the barges being back in action?

While Zinc was up last night, overall there may be some negatives ahead.

 

[Kauri]

ZFX have gone very quiet on the barge in the Gulf. Has anyone heard anything about when or if it will be back in action or if they have arranged a replacement?

Health and Safety are involved as well - is there any chance that this will delay the barges being back in action?

While Zinc was up last night, overall there may be some negatives ahead.

Barge is in Weipa, electrical problems due to be repaired by weekend, cargo O.K, should be back in service soon. No shutdown of Century likely.


Is ZFX putting in a minor W1, setting up for a W2????

 

[wavepicker]

Barge is in Weipa, electrical problems due to be repaired by weekend, cargo O.K, should be back in service soon. No shutdown of Century likely.


Is ZFX putting in a minor W1, setting up for a W2????

Quite possible, but could also be from the Jan high a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 and then the point of recognition to follow!!! Take your pick

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

Quite possible, but could also be from the Jan high a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 and then the point of recognition to follow!!! Take your pick

Cheers

What exactly is a 1-2,1-2,1-2. In my younger days I was sat on my bum more then once by a pretty mean 1-2 combination, but I don't think that is what you are referring to.
I try not to pick, rather I let the chart action validate/invalidate.. i.e. if this does turn into a W1 followed by W2, I wouldn't be looking to enter until the W1 high was taken out on price/vol action. What would we be looking for for a 1-2,1-2,1-2??
Cheers
Kauri

 

[Rafa]

a 1-2-1-2...

now i have heard it all!!

 

[wavepicker]

What exactly is a 1-2,1-2,1-2. In my younger days I was sat on my bum more then once by a pretty mean 1-2 combination, but I don't think that is what you are referring to.
I try not to pick, rather I let the chart action validate/invalidate.. i.e. if this does turn into a W1 followed by W2, I wouldn't be looking to enter until the W1 high was taken out on price/vol action. What would we be looking for for a 1-2,1-2,1-2??
Cheers
Kauri

Quite clearly described in EWP by Frost and Prechter, it's the early stages of a 3rd of wave unfolding or subdividing(nesting 1-2 subdivisions). Unfortunately, quite a few Radgephiles are not aware of it. It's the bread and butter of the EW technician. The "Point Of Recognition" is the middle point of the 3rd wave, the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd. That is when the crowd finally realizes the direction of the trend, at such times you see gapping and wide ranging bars.

Getting into the habit of labelling waves 1-2,1-2,1-2 instead of just 1,2,3,4,5 can be the difference between making a some $$ and lots of $$.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

LOL, come on really!. :
There is a lot easier way of explaining the price action than all those number counts.

 

[wavepicker]

LOL, come on really!. :
There is a lot easier way of explaining the price action than all those number counts.

Tell me more beachbum. I would love to know it. What do you use, lagging MA crossovers or bollingers???? They aint worth telling you jack, if you think they do, then you are deluding yourself.

EW aint perfect, it aint even hard, but it is one of the best keys to explaining market behaviour.

 

[rwkni1]

Tell me more beachbum. I would love to know it. What do you use, lagging MA crossovers or bollingers???? They aint worth telling you jack, if you think they do, then you are deluding yourself.

EW aint perfect, it aint even hard, but it is one of the best keys to explaining market behaviour.

Zinc price moves up, ZFX moves up.
Zinc price moves down, ZFX moves down.
I reckon that's a pretty simple and accurate way of explaining the daily price movement.

 

[wavepicker]

Zinc price moves up, ZFX moves up.
Zinc price moves down, ZFX moves down.
I reckon that's a pretty simple and accurate way of explaining the daily price movement.

If only it were that easy!!!


What you are talking about is an effect. How do you know what zinc is gonna do from day to day or week to week??? Simple you don't! You need a mechanism to examine price pattern and motion in order to asses the probabilities of future movement. You don't need the EWP to do it, but you do need a method that will give you an edge.

Simply looking at what zinc price, oil price etc won't help you. What you have to realize is that the forces of the market internal, dynamic, and they feed upon themselves.

There are only 2 things necessary for you to decide:
1- which way the market is trending
2- knowing when the trend is at risk of ending

 

[rwkni1]

Sorry, i was just being a smart ****. You're right, i don't know what zinc is gonna do day to day. But, i do think that no matter what the technical indicators say,the fundamentals will always over-ride. i.e. even if every technical indicator imagineable was pointing to a rise in share price tomorrow, if someone dumps 4,000t onto the LME tonight ZFX will go down.

If only it were that easy!!!


What you are talking about is an effect. How do you know what zinc is gonna do from day to day or week to week??? Simple you don't! You need a mechanism to examine price pattern and motion in order to asses the probabilities of future movement. You don't need the EWP to do it, but you do need a method that will give you an edge.

Simply looking at what zinc price, oil price etc won't help you. What you have to realize is that the forces of the market internal, dynamic, and they feed upon themselves.

There are only 2 things necessary for you to decide:
1- which way the market is trending
2- knowing when the trend is at risk of ending

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Tell me more beachbum. I would love to know it. What do you use, lagging MA crossovers or bollingers???? They aint worth telling you jack, if you think they do, then you are deluding yourself.

EW aint perfect, it aint even hard, but it is one of the best keys to explaining market behaviour.

None of the above WP, not picking at you just seemed a complicated way of explaining market sentiment in ZFX ATM.

And yep I do like the beach

 

[Kauri]

Quite clearly described in EWP by Frost and Prechter, it's the early stages of a 3rd of wave unfolding or subdividing(nesting 1-2 subdivisions). Unfortunately, quite a few Radgephiles are not aware of it. It's the bread and butter of the EW technician.

Hi wavepicker,

Thanks for the detailed explanation, although it is all a bit over my head at the moment. Plenty to think about.

It may be rather simplistic but so far I have found the basic E/W labelling to serve me quite well....so far anyway.

A Radgephile.... well thats really not worth commenting on.

 

[wavepicker]

Sorry, i was just being a smart ****. You're right, i don't know what zinc is gonna do day to day. But, i do think that no matter what the technical indicators say,the fundamentals will always over-ride. i.e. even if every technical indicator imagineable was pointing to a rise in share price tomorrow, if someone dumps 4,000t onto the LME tonight ZFX will go down.

Understand what you are saying about fundementals rwk, especially long term economic fundementals which probably account for 75% of price motion. Although having quite a profound impact on price these are slow and smooth. About 23% of the price motion consists of the sum of a number of periodic-cyclic "waves". These are oscillatory about the major fundemental trendline.
Very little stock price movement is white noise or random in nature.

I am firm believer that medium to short term fundementals lag price motion. The trends in the market place are expression of collective social mood that has very little to with short term/medium price fundementals. Have talked about this before with Rederob and Michael selway on the "Zinc the metal for 2006" thread. Back in late Dec, the fundementals where saying a screaming buy for Zinc/ZFX.
The case was put forward (using TA)for a peak in Zinc/ZFX which would point to a significant decline. (see posts #543,545,547 in that thread). One week later that decline started, sending Zinc to $3000 per ton and ZFX to $15.

Wetsuit, there is nothing complicated about EWP. It's just one of a number of tools that is useful to look at market behaviour

Cheers

 

[Nick Radge]

What is that chart wavepicker?

With regard to ZFX, maybe you're right, and maybe I'll miss the next move, but for my money ZFX will have another leg lower first in quite a simple double zig zag off the highs. Emphasis on simple - which maybe I am. Then we move higher. If my analysis is incorrect, so what, an opportunity lost is all.

Sincerely,

Radgephile

 

[michael_selway]

What is that chart wavepicker?

With regard to ZFX, maybe you're right, and maybe I'll miss the next move, but for my money ZFX will have another leg lower first in quite a simple double zig zag off the highs. Emphasis on simple - which maybe I am. Then we move higher. If my analysis is incorrect, so what, an opportunity lost is all.

Sincerely,

Radgephile

Hi Nick, are u bullish or bearish, on ZFX in the ST, MT and LT?

thx

MS

 

[Nick Radge]

Michael,
My simplistic view is that the next week or so runs the risk of seeing ZFX pulling back to $14.00, give or take $0.30. Whilst the longer term trends are bullish we should see new highs after that pullback.

However, my main concern is Zinc itself. I should disclose that I do not trade stocks basis the underlying commodity or index, I trade them for what they themselves show me. Zinc is a major concern though. I think we'll see strength over the coming month, possibly back toward $4000 and then we'll fail again. This strength would be enough to satisfy my immediate bullish thinking on ZFX but I cannot see that Zinc strength sustainable in the intermediate term.

Actually, the Zinc pattern is 100% identical to Allco Finance (AFG), which I said on 31 Jan, "..we will trade lower again, probably to $12.00 as a minimum..". Today AFG dropped 6% to $11.80 or so. Zinc is the same pattern. A spoof rally is about to occur and suck in the perennial bulls...enough to spit them out again.

 

[reece55]

Nick
I'm with you here.... this rally seems to just be a sucker bet to get the retailers interested..... Volume is well down of late and whilst Zinc has recovered, its still well down on were it has been in the past.

Will the financial's due on Wednesday commence the next down move????

Cheers