ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

....now $70million $$ ZFX is spending to buy their own shares back...which means 20 million to 25millon shares will be of the market...I worked it out that 20 shareholders hold 425 million shares 75 million we have freefloating minus buyback...and you have 50 million shares...not much for the whole of Australia...stock is tightly held...

This misinformation about stock being tightly held has been repeated ad nauseum.

Page 55 of the ZFX Annual Report lists the top shareholders as at 13/9/04.

Of the substantial shareholders, 452 Capital Pty Ltd (a managed funds run by Peter Morgan) filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder (over 25 million shares) with ASX on 28/10/04. The details of sales of ZFX shares in that notice suggested that the shares were sold to the open market at various prices.

Deutsche Bank AG filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 5/11/04 (over 33 million shares). Highfields Capital Management LP filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 26/11/04 (over 25 million shares). Barclays Group filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder on 14/12/04 (over 39 million shares).

Any shareholder of ZFX (irregardless of size) can sell ZFX shares whenever they choose, because there is no law against selling.

I will sell my 30,000 shares when my target price is reached, after I clear the 12 months holding period, to reduce CGT.

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Impressive post from Investor..I just wanted to point out what the cost would be to reproduce Zinifexes Smelter and mines...$3 billion to $4 billion..in todays costs...that you had NOT answered...the share price at $3.06 is still a joke of what they got..or are you saying I am wrong...post your reply..after all they own everything and are effectively DEBT FREE.....

You do not seem to understand the difference between replacement costs of new smelters and current valuation of very old smelters (depreciated assets in worn and torn condition) if sold to the open market (a sale requires a willing buyer and a willing seller). As for mines, remaining mine life is critical and impacts on P/E valuations.

Pages 6 and 7 of ZFX's annual report outlines the four smelters. It stated that the smelter in Clarksville, USA is losing money and will require CAPEX to try to improve performance.

It is logical that if this smelter continues to lose money, say after a year or two, it will be closed and its assets sold to the highest bidder. CAPEX still required to clean up the site due to EPA laws.

If you have researched ZFX properly, you would know that the ZFX smelters are not returning adequate ROE employed. This is partly why ZFX's share price is trading at a relatively low P/E.

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

...the share price at $3.06 is still a joke of what they got..or are you saying I am wrong...post your reply..after all they own everything and are effectively DEBT FREE.....

If you see $3.06 as significantly undervalued, the logical next step would be to buy as many as you can. No one will stop you.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

If you see $3.06 as significantly undervalued, the logical next step would be to buy as many as you can. No one will stop you.

Hi Investor,

Excellent posts, I am worried about Chicken now because he is going to get confused as he can't understand that kind of information.

WBII

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

The company or the stock?

I have pretty good knowledge of Zinifex operations at a technical and practical level although I have never worked for them. Had plenty of visits to the Hobart smelter and know basically how it works (I'll pass on the specific chemistry details for now though ).

Very interesting stuff and it's a BIG operation in a physical sense once you get on site. They've cleaned up a lot over the past decade or so - even the old waste stockpile ("Residue Hill" as it was known locally) has been reprocessed. They've got all kinds of things to treat the air and water discharges too. Even environmentalists refer to pollution as something that happened in the past so it must be pretty clean these days. Been underground at Rosebery too.

However, and please take note of this Chicken, just because I think that the company and particularly the Hobart smelter are pretty good doesn't mean that the stock is going up, down, sideways or anything else.

Hobart (and some of the others) were a pretty good operation (technically at least) back when Pasminco blew up. The practical aspects and the financials are not necessarily the same.

IMO one of the biggest mistakes made by investors is either over, or under, emphasis on fundamentals. Fundamentals will heavily influence the LONG TERM performance of the stock but have practically no influence whatsoever in the short term unless something truly dramatic happens (like going bankrupt or a major mineral discovery).

Will ZFX be up tomorrow or next week? I don't know and neither do you.

 

[chicken]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

This misinformation about stock being tightly held has been repeated ad nauseum.

Page 55 of the ZFX Annual Report lists the top shareholders as at 13/9/04.

Of the substantial shareholders, 452 Capital Pty Ltd (a managed funds run by Peter Morgan) filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder (over 25 million shares) with ASX on 28/10/04. The details of sales of ZFX shares in that notice suggested that the shares were sold to the open market at various prices.

Deutsche Bank AG filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 5/11/04 (over 33 million shares). Highfields Capital Management LP filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 26/11/04 (over 25 million shares). Barclays Group filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder on 14/12/04 (over 39 million shares).

Any shareholder of ZFX (irregardless of size) can sell ZFX shares whenever they choose, because there is no law against selling.

I will sell my 30,000 shares when my target price is reached, after I clear the 12 months holding period, to reduce CGT.

Well, Investor if you do so much research as you say how could you have missed that those 25million shares of ZFX ...were sold from MORGANS to BARCLAYS they have been adding MORE shares been buying on the open market...just wondered how you missed that

 

[markrmau]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

From a TA perpective, zfx has done very well over the last few days, in the face of volatile metals prices and a down market. Also, it seemed to shrug off this mornings dump of 300,000 share at open.

My only concern is that deusch bank upgraded their price target to $4, but they recently sold all their shares???

 

[chicken]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

SOLD ALL THEIR SHARES...DEUTSCHE BANK..post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Well, Investor if you do so much research as you say how could you have missed that those 25million shares of ZFX ...were sold from MORGANS to BARCLAYS they have been adding MORE shares been buying on the open market...just wondered how you missed that

Read my post properly. I stated that 452 Capital Pty Ltd sold to the open market.

I did not bother to tell you who the others sold to, because you need to do a bit of work yourself.

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

....post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....

You tend to ask others to post evidence despite the fact that you have already been conclusively proven wrong with many of your claims, including not even knowing what zinc is used for!!! and not knowing what ZFX's main products are!!! and not knowing that one of the smelters is losing money.

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

chicken,

Questions for you:
1. Are you aware of the outlook for lead?
2. Are you aware of how much CAPEX ZFX would have to spend to comply with EPA legislation at the end of the mine life for the two mines or if they decide to close any smelters should new smelters in China render them unviable?

Chicken,

Any replies?

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Man..there is some strenght in this stock I put an order in for 16000 shares at $2.97...and there are NO SELLERS at that price..

Subsequent to that post on 16/2/05, there were several opportunities to buy at that price and even lower over the ensuing weeks.

With a bit of luck, you might get to buy at that price, once ZFX has finished the $70 million buy back (the buy back has been very slow - is ZFX expecting further price weakness? Time will tell).

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

here is another intresting thought...I keyed in zinifex..just to find out how much the 20 largest shareholder are holding in stock....84.5% is owned by 20 institution and privat induviduals...that equates to 500million shares and only say 15% is on the market....that is 75million shares for everyone or the public...very tightly held this stock..so..in fact 425million shares are not available....so with Zinc,Lead,Copper,Silver,Gold all up in price...and their own smelters and now into exploration...this could become another WMC..ZFX has got the capacity to do it....any comments ,we all like to hear from anyone on this subject please...

Looks like you did not like to hear from me!

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Chicken

Do you honestly believe this conspiracy rubbish you espouse!

Price movement is simply supply and demand.
Some think it cheap others expensive.
When more think its expensive than cheap then the price drops to a level where buyers return.

People trying to explain why their beliefs arent panning out as they think------ look for reasons why.

Thats what your doing!

He might believe the conspiracy nonsense but it would appear that he expects others to believe (if so, how naive he is and does he take us for fools?).

Any market manipulators out there? How do you carry tonnes of zinc around and where do you park them?

 

[chicken]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

THE share price is up the market decides being short is not a good idea in this stock...but someone has again presold...check...asx on the shortsells...but each to their own..also what will happen in 10 years...does BHP concern themself with that...they will adress it when the time comes..so, being negative about a stock which will happen in 10 years...Investor, who knows what happends in 10 years..I dont ,YOU dont so talk about what we are doing NOW...tomorrow...anybodies guess...and you have not answered me re VALUE...$3.06 is still a joke watch on thursday the results might be a big supprise..If you sell or buy..well that is your business and I dont really care what you do with your stock...mine ,I am happy to hold

 

[chicken]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

JUST got the air news....UBS still bullish on ZFX..it says also they value the share at $3.10...target price $3.73....

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Do you actually know the difference between a valuation (now) and a target price (a year down the track???).

Also, do you realise how many times you have repeated this same information in so many of your posts? Give it a rest, chicken.

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

ZFX..still heading north what a share..my $4 just about there.....bought more today at $3.42....

On 2/3/05, you stated "my $4 just about there". Did you get the year wrong??? Did you mean 2006?

You could not buy any share at $2.97 on 16/2/05 (in your earlier post) and so you bought at $3.42 on 2/3/05. And you call yourself "chicken"?

No wonder you think the current price is low.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

JUST got the air news....UBS still bullish on ZFX..it says also they value the share at $3.10...target price $3.73....

UBS

The broker expects the March quarter to be weak due to production downtime at Century, but notes the outlook remains positive as current commodity prices suggest company guidance of a FY05 profit of $190m will be conservative, with a result of $227m possible if commodity prices remain at current levels. The broker also expects the share buyback to provide support and notes the stock is trading at a discount to NPV. Valuation is $3.10.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.08 Difference:$0.64

If ZFX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17%

 

[Investor]

Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

.... I dont really care what you do with your stock...

Likewise.