ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[porkpie324]

Because ZFX would be buying a profitable miner with an established mine(s) operating, no dept, proven reserves,and not zillions of shares on issue. So what if BHP processes the Nickel? It's similar with the nickel miners I mentioned.
What ever ZFX's intentions are with AGM the market doesn't seem to like it.porkpie

 

[ROE]

Maybe the market doesnt like zfx to spend money during volatile time
especially paying a premium when every other stock is going south

 

[DionM]

ZFX really does seem to be in a free-fall, doesn't it.

It's gone from the star performer in my portfolio to the worst. Though having said that, I do have quite a few big losses in my portfolio at present now

There are so many factors influencing the SP at present it's hard to separate out them out - POZn, general market fall, AGM offer, takeover rumours (of ZFX) ... no wonder the SP is a mess. Not good for holders like myself though ...

 

[tronic72]

I've been keeping an eye on ZFX for a while now and have held on and off over the last few years, both as an Investor and Trader.

I thought holders of ZFX might take cold comfort from the fact that Aspect Huntley has upgraded their recommendation to a Buy due to the current low price. I've noticed that a few others are changing their recommendation and I tend to agree that at current prices ZFX is oversold. Sure, there may be some more downside but I think the share price is very close to the bottom.

I purchased ZFX today at 1045. (also purchased SDL @ 29.5, BNB @ 2200 and AWC @ 610).

 

[Gundini]

I think the following charts may give a hint to the ordinary performance of ZFX in the last 6 months.

 

[Gundini]

I think the following charts may give a hint to the ordinary performance of ZFX in the last 6 months.

Something else to consider, old news yes, but important all the same.

China to become net zinc exporter this year
(Agencies)
Updated: 2007-05-31 14:31

China is set to become a net exporter of refined zinc this year, due to oversupply pressure and a slowdown in domestic demand, said a Chinese zinc expert at the China International Nonferrous Metals Market Conference 2007, held in Hong Kong yesterday.

Full story here:

www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-05/31/content_884472.htm

 

[treefrog]

Something else to consider, old news yes, but important all the same.

China to become net zinc exporter this year
(Agencies)
Updated: 2007-05-31 14:31

China is set to become a net exporter of refined zinc this year, due to oversupply pressure and a slowdown in domestic demand, said a Chinese zinc expert at the China International Nonferrous Metals Market Conference 2007, held in Hong Kong yesterday.

Full story here:

www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-05/31/content_884472.htm

and century mining getting close to end of life wouldn't be helping - they desperately need significant extra in ground finds/takeovers

 

[Nyden]

Wow. Does this stock even have a bottom? :

Gosh, you know - if I was smart I would sell out before it drops even further! But, I intend on holding it for a few years. Hopefully if they continue the dividends...I'll have nearly paid off the stock by then anyway, & will be free-holding.

I'm just going to let this one ride as a spec, hold it even if it hits $1!

I am contemplating buying more, but I doubt I will. As the market in general falls, stocks that seem to bounce back much stronger (ie OXR), just seem to be a better buy. As opposed to Zini that seems to fall hard, & recover with pitiful effort.

Where does T/A see ZFX heading?

Most analysts for Zinc seem to believe that current prices are about right for the rest of the year, so this earnings report season will be rather important as to give the market something to (fundamentally) cling to with regards to potential future earnings.

The analysts at CommSec still seem to believe they'll pull in earnings of 140c this year (give or take a few %) They also estimate dividends of 115 - I sincerely hope this is inaccurate to be honest. Last year they only gave up a little over half their profits, if these estimates are correct they'll nearly be giving up all of their profits back to holders. That would be disappointing. Which is why I'm reluctant to buy more! Can we really depend on them to give up the bulk of their profits?

I'm under the impression (perhaps wrong) that their Lead output is to increase this year? Or was that their Zinc output? At any rate, high Lead prices may just be enough to spurr on some good earnings

 

[michael_selway]

Wow. Does this stock even have a bottom? :

Gosh, you know - if I was smart I would sell out before it drops even further! But, I intend on holding it for a few years. Hopefully if they continue the dividends...I'll have nearly paid off the stock by then anyway, & will be free-holding.

I'm just going to let this one ride as a spec, hold it even if it hits $1!

I am contemplating buying more, but I doubt I will. As the market in general falls, stocks that seem to bounce back much stronger (ie OXR), just seem to be a better buy. As opposed to Zini that seems to fall hard, & recover with pitiful effort.

Where does T/A see ZFX heading?

Most analysts for Zinc seem to believe that current prices are about right for the rest of the year, so this earnings report season will be rather important as to give the market something to (fundamentally) cling to with regards to potential future earnings.

The analysts at CommSec still seem to believe they'll pull in earnings of 140c this year (give or take a few %) They also estimate dividends of 115 - I sincerely hope this is inaccurate to be honest. Last year they only gave up a little over half their profits, if these estimates are correct they'll nearly be giving up all of their profits back to holders. That would be disappointing. Which is why I'm reluctant to buy more! Can we really depend on them to give up the bulk of their profits?

I'm under the impression (perhaps wrong) that their Lead output is to increase this year? Or was that their Zinc output? At any rate, high Lead prices may just be enough to spurr on some good earnings

$10.00 looks like a good long term price trend, with sustaianble yeild, they just need to increase minelife

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 274.1 140.4 99.0 104.4
DPS 140.0 115.5 70.0 57.5

thx

MS

 

[Nyden]

I am contemplating buying more, but I doubt I will. As the market in general falls, stocks that seem to bounce back much stronger (ie OXR), just seem to be a better buy. As opposed to Zini that seems to fall hard, & recover with pitiful effort.

Sigh, case & point.

On the open (could change, but probably won't with ZFX), most of my stocks that were hit lightly yesterday have doubled the gains recovered from yesterdays loss. Whilst Zinifex? Hasn't even made a third back. Terrible volume as well.

Good thing capital losses keep for years! I just know if I sell, 2 days later we'll see a 10% gain on the back of some Zinc disaster, a takeover bid, or this AGM mess being cleaned up.


I can honestly see a loss coming today Based on absolutely nothing, of course!

 

[shaunnell]

Good thing capital losses keep for years! I just know if I sell, 2 days later we'll see a 10% gain on the back of some Zinc disaster, a takeover bid, or this AGM mess being cleaned up.

Well please hurry up and sell already so the rest of us can get the 10% gain...

ZFX is by far the worst performer in my portfolio but my ego will not allow me to sell. I wish I could separate emotion from my trading but I cannot...better get me a broker to invest on my behalf methinks.

 

[Nyden]

Well please hurry up and sell already so the rest of us can get the 10% gain...

ZFX is by far the worst performer in my portfolio but my ego will not allow me to sell. I wish I could separate emotion from my trading but I cannot...better get me a broker to invest on my behalf methinks.

It's not my ego that keeps me holding, it's my fundamental belief that Zinifex has a strong future.

I've cooled down a bit now The way I see it; surely it can't fall too much more! I'll give it a few more weeks, & will decide around earnings report season.

May the market gods be merciful

 

[ozrob]

It's not my ego that keeps me holding, it's my fundamental belief that Zinifex has a strong future.

I'm in the same boat as you, and just a little worried about how far of this strong future may be. I'm also hoping the SP does not collapse again after the next dividend which I think is paid at the end of March.

 

[DionM]

The way I see it; surely it can't fall too much more!

Heh. I remember holding on so bravely to my analysis of support around $14! Pfft to that it seems ... fallen well below that and stayed down.

I'm still not sure what to do with ZFX. I too beleive that fundamentally it is a good company, but boy the SP has taken a beating - it was once one of my best stocks - good SP gain, good divvy returns, a great long term hold.

Now it's languishing at the bottom (along with IAG, SUN and BBP - my stocks that have taken the biggest beating lately).

But I did buy for the long term, and long term I am sure ZFX will deliver.

 

[porkpie324]

Yes that $14 support well and truly gone, not being smug but I luckily sold ZFX late 2006. But I do have some other loosers so plenty of us in the same boat.
So I suggest some good blue's music, some Muddy Waters, John Lee Hooker, Eric Clapton.
Thats my suggestion.porkpie

 

[DionM]

So I suggest some good blue's music, some Muddy Waters, John Lee Hooker, Eric Clapton.
Thats my suggestion.porkpie

I'm just about at the point of "bottom-drawering" my whole portfolio. The loan is paid automatically from my salary, the dividends go in there too. Maybe in a few years I'll take a peek at it again .............................

 

[justjohn]

I'm also in the leaking ZFX boat as everyone else,surely this stock has a forward gear I'm starting to get sick of being stuck in reverse:horse:Giddy up or just stand up for christ saker you're going to be%#$@#$% dog meat

 

[3MT]

I got rid of the final 50% of my holding recently (on a stop loss trigger - started buying at $15ish at a less informed mental stage).

Until then I was adamant that Zinifex had strong fundamentals, great management and a bright future with little risk and that holding on was the prudent thing. Now that I no longer hold it, I'm beginning to see that there are better investment opportunities elsewhere even at current prices ... yes, I realise I'm an emotional trader and I don't get true perspective on a stock when I own it. (could explain why AGM shareholders are so adamant that their stock is worth more than $1 to a predator - good luck to them)

With Zini, if its mine life is coming to an end shortly, who cares how much cash it has. Its going to have to use the cash to buy miners/producers at huge risky premiums anyway (AGM at 1.20? that's at least how much it needs to pay) and then there is integration risks with processes, logistics, morale, unreport issues etc.

I might return at $10 for a trade based on broader market momentum, but it won't be a long term stock specific investment decision.

Of course making a significant Zinc or Lead discovery could change everything.

 

[roland]

Good luck with your decision 3MT, sounds like you have made an informed choice based on your trading style and expectations.

If it were not for a healthy dividend yield, I would probably do the same. Until Zinc prices pick up, irrespective of LME levels, the only thing going to pull Zinifex out of the mud would be increased profit forecasts, and that won't probably happen unless ZFX succeed in
- a resource purchase (so long as they don't pay too much)
- a resource increase (maybe with Drake?)
- a takeover bid from a large predator (on the cards with a low SP and heaps of $$'s in the bank)

In my mind, things that will hurt Zinifex further:
- not successful with a new resource buy
- paying too much for said resource
- no new discoveries
- a lower than expected dividend yield

I haven't crunched any numbers myself, but Aegis have repriced the 12 month SP to be around $14.50. I would expect any SP price below $11 would be a good buy.

Putting emotional ties aside - there are certainly better prospects out there. Unfortunately I (like others) have emotions playing with my head, so I'll stick around.

I suspect the next dividend payment will trash the stock again so personally I will hold, possibly buy a little on dips, maybe kill off my higher SP parcels to bring down my tax exposure and prepare for a dump at ex div.

It's easy to to get swayed with all the negative talk with ZFX or any stock, but it really isn't the worst stock around, fundamentals are still good (not as good as last year) and you know what .... it's one hell of a challenge, worst case is that you'll have to sit it out and collect some pretty good damn dividends, 100% franked to boot.

Go ZFX!

 

[SGB]

"QUOTE"=Nyden;244710
Wow. Does this stock even have a bottom? :

Where does T/A see ZFX heading?UNQUOTE"


Update from post #1994

Support levels $9.55 and $8.00