ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[cordelia]

We are now in the third week of below average volume for ZFX. So the question is when will this downtrend stop. ZFX had 3 attepmts at rallying on well above average volume, 15/11, 30/11 & 21/12 all were shot lived and failed, so ZFX is going to be very hard to pick the bottom. Better to wait until a longer rally and buy on the pullback if your game enough to try, porkpie

I sold zfx yesterday at a loss...and i didn't do it lightly. I have been researching technical analysis and if I had done so earlier I would have sold out a lot earlier. It stopped me panicking and buying back in with not just zfx but a lot of others too ( don't talk about pem) and guess what they have continued their slide.

Fundamentally all stocks are being influenced by the DJIA and the XAO. Not to mention consumer confidence. Most people read the news and follow the general sentiment which, at the moment, is extremely cautious and i would say is gaining momentum. There will have to be some groundbreaking positive news before things head north. In every paper today and on every news channel there is talk of stock market losses. It has to have an effect on investment decision making.

At some point prices will become ridiculous cheap and that will be the time to buy again. (my opinion)

Do some research. I felt bad yesterday selling at a loss but I have confidence the share prices of most stocks will drop further and therefore I have actually made some money by not losing more. If I buy back in at a significantly lower price then its much the same as selling short. If I was still hanging onto those stocks I would have to wait until the price hit rock bottom before I would even begin to make back any of my capital.

Remember too that there have been buyers on the way down and at some point they are going to take a profit...way before the price gets anywhere near your entry point if you bought near the top.

 

[Ken]

Heres something to think about people....


JUST A THOUGHT.

The papers write because they get paid to.. when the market is heading north everything is rosey, when its heading south, the world is coming to its knees.

From what I can see Australia has just had record low unemployment. Now from my understanding that means we are flying.

From a US point of view their unemployment levels are crazy low as well.

The problem all started with HOUSING and credit.

My theory is that this is going to be the GREAT OPPORTUNITY for the 2009, and and 2010 extended run of the bull market. Basically my view is also that this period now, will be the launching pad before the All ords go for 10,000

This platform will be volatile, shakey, and it will have to be. It cant be smooth sailing.

WHAT IS GOING TO CHANGE THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRETTY SIMPLE - takeover talks. What better time to be making takeover talks when companies share prices are on the slide. It just makes perfect sense to be buying the best companies when prices fall.

ZFX in my opinion is one of them.

Trends are there to be broken in my opinion.

The man with the most shares wins no the greatest percentage gains in 3 days.

 

[sideshowbob]

yes 2009 and 2010 might see good times...

but why not get out for 2008... or at least the first half of 2008.

Zfx does not show any hint of climbing.
I have been following Zfx for 2 years now. I sold at $16.5
Simply put I found... Zfx always fell the hardest and always recovered the least.

IMO Its not the stock to have money in ... if and when a rebound\rally comes.

Its hard to see a bottom with ZFX atm....

KEN

Yes unemployment is low...

but what about rising interest rates..
if we look at the basics of share market cycles...
we have all the signs of a market going into a bear cycle. All the signs are there.
Meanwhile American economy is halted.
The only saving grace is China, India... that are booming... and the material sector has profited.
In fact much of the saving grace last year came from materials like BHP and RIO etc which carried the ALL ORDS.
Now have we forgotten the forecast by China itself. "Their growth must slow down"... remember the corrections?
Imagine if China comes in with another one of their corrections right about now?

 

[campag]

In every paper today and on every news channel there is talk of stock market losses.

Usualy a good indicator to get back into the market (IMHO). Interest rates may be going up in oz but they are going to get ridiculously low in the US and the UK to stimulate the housing market and economy(IMO)

I've made mistakes with ZFX, kept getting stopped out and bought right back in. Did this three times before I learnt my lesson. I'm out now and glad, as I would now be sitting on a massive loss. I'll probably leave ZFX well alone as there are better opportunities in the current market. Won't dip my feet in just yet though, although I had a dabble with PDN but will probably get stopped out of that fairly soon, I'm much too impatient.

 

[DionM]

Wow, into the 9s. I never thought it would go that low.

I tip my hat to those of you who had the courage to sell out in the 10s or higher. I perhaps should have bailed the minute it breached the $14 support line. But I somewhat blindly stuck at it, though my judgement was clouded a little by thinking it was only a temporary thing while the Allegiance thing ran it's course.

I think now my only hope is just to sit on it for the 5-10 years I was planning to, and see what happens. Certainly when it gets back up to the levels I paid for it, I will give serious consideration whether I sell then or not.

 

[PBH]

Well, I'm in at $9.42.

Accuse me of trying to catch a falling knife if you must, but I just can't ignore the value of this company at these prices anymore. Also I'm buying with the longer term in mind (3-4 years), so I'm feeling quite comfortable about things.

Clearly still some downside potential for ZFX, so I've left some $$ in the bank as a precaution. If it goes down to $8.50, I'll buy some more.

As for the AGM offer; things aren't looking too good at the moment, especially given the dismal uptake so far. I can't wait to see what the next move will be.....

 

[3MT]

wow, what a ride. look fear in the eye and tell her that Zini has bottomed.....for now.

Though too risky to have as a staple stock for the superfund (living off acquisition outcomes and exploration results), the fact that it has almost half its market cap as interest bearing cash can't be ignored in this environment.

what i've learnt is you must have an exit strategy with every purchase.
Too many traders become long term investors by accident because they don't have an exit strategy.

I hate taking losses , but I must say the reluctantly imposed stop losses have saved me alot money

I've taken a trading position today (with a stop loss of course).

Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left

 

[roland]

wow, what a ride. look fear in the eye and tell her that Zini has bottomed.....for now.

Though too risky to have as a staple stock for the superfund (living off acquisition outcomes and exploration results), the fact that it has almost half its market cap as interest bearing cash can't be ignored in this environment.

what i've learnt is you must have an exit strategy with every purchase.
Too many traders become long term investors by accident because they don't have an exit strategy.

I hate taking losses , but I must say the reluctantly imposed stop losses have saved me alot money

I've taken a trading position today (with a stop loss of course).

Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left

everything you say makes sense.

exiting, on an exit strategy, a stop loss, an emotion means we have made a loss, and we don't like taking losses. Some of us stubborn bastards just cannot be told and more often than not we have an unhappy face on all our posts

there is always that slim chance that this baby will just turn on it's heels and skyrocket - then we can say "told you so"

us stubborn bastards don't rely on maths when factoring in a 10% drop is not corrected by a 10% rise - pity that simple fact - who invented percentages anyway?

us stubborn bastards get lulled into loving our falling stocks and think they will love us back with some extra hard earned $$$'s - shall we call them blood sweat and tears?

us stubborn bastards feel we have an important part to play in the success of our selected companies - funny how we know all about them, they know nothing about us - what truely great friends our selected companies are ...

 

[Nyden]

everything you say makes sense.

exiting, on an exit strategy, a stop loss, an emotion means we have made a loss, and we don't like taking losses. Some of us stubborn bastards just cannot be told and more often than not we have an unhappy face on all our posts

there is always that slim chance that this baby will just turn on it's heels and skyrocket - then we can say "told you so"

us stubborn bastards don't rely on maths when factoring in a 10% drop is not corrected by a 10% rise - pity that simple fact - who invented percentages anyway?

us stubborn bastards get lulled into loving our falling stocks and think they will love us back with some extra hard earned $$$'s - shall we call them blood sweat and tears?

us stubborn bastards feel we have an important part to play in the success of our selected companies - funny how we know all about them, they know nothing about us - what truely great friends our selected companies are ...

Yeah, even the simplistic moving averages told me the upward trend was over at I believe $16, I stubbornly held Glad I managed to get out at least at something above 10! Just above 10 :

 

[BJP]

Hi Guy`s
Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left .

You are going to need to use a lot more of that 2.2B cash that you have in the bank if you want AGM

 

[3MT]

an AGM shareholder amongst us? Welcome to the family.

Don't be so greedy over a few cents in case you live to regret it.

 

[DionM]

an AGM shareholder amongst us? Welcome to the family.

Don't be so greedy over a few cents in case you live to regret it.

I'm torn. I have both AGM and ZFX.

Sadly, far far far more ZFX than AGM though, so they're not balancing each other at all.

 

[BJP]

We`re not part of the family yet,: as I said they need to dig a lot deeper into that 2.2b bank acc.
Not being greedy, just want a fair and reasonable price

 

[Rafa]

Hi Guy`s
Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left .

You are going to need to use a lot more of that 2.2B cash that you have in the bank if you want AGM

Very true...
2.2 billion cash...

what value is that as companies go to the wall trying to raise capital to finance their projects...

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

We`re not part of the family yet,: as I said they need to dig a lot deeper into that 2.2b bank acc.
Not being greedy, just want a fair and reasonable price

, the price ZFX have offered for AGM is at a premium to its peers.

Moreover its unlikely another AGM suitor would be in the wings that share the same locality synergies and liquidity ability to drillout/define beyond AGM's currently defined resources.

IMO ZFX should sweat out there bid and let it lapse if necessary. I'm sure longer term holders of ZFX would agree there is little chance of there gains in ZFX returning to the market mean.
ZFX has plenty on its plate ATM from a production/exploration perspective and should just chug along. Blind freedy management could keep holders happy by interest bearing returns on 2.2B or instigating another share buy back at current levels.

I feel sorry for the leveraged crew who speculated on ZFX recently, painful!.

 

[Stan 101]

ZFX mentioned last year that if they cannot aquire new business with their cash surplus, it will be used for capital return... I say bring it on. I'd like a few dollars back on my zfx shares.

It was good to see zfx held its own today and ended up mildly in the black. 1 of only 3 shares on my watchlist that did...There was a bit of volume, too..

Any thoughts on this?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

ZFX mentioned last year that if they cannot aquire new business with their cash surplus, it will be used for capital return... I say bring it on. I'd like a few dollars back on my zfx shares.

It was good to see zfx held its own today and ended up mildly in the black. 1 of only 3 shares on my watchlist that did...There was a bit of volume, too..

Any thoughts on this?

I'd say that over the past couple of years there has been times/opportunities to trade a bit of speculation/froth in there SP.

Even from a longer term perspective (2 plus years) those holding ZFX are sitting on above market returns.

ZFX is a different beast since those times though and as they currently sit fundamentally, IMO I wouldn't be selling them in the $9.00 dollar range, I'd be buying them!.

I don't know of a company in the ASX with a MC 4.5B sitting on 2.2B cash, recent aquisitions and the ability to sustain realistic profits even with the complete speculation removed from Zn prices.

Sure there mine life is an issue, but realistically these guys have enough targets/exploration potetial to drill out and define. I reckon there well placed to ride out any short term movements in the market and self fund future growth.

 

[3MT]

Good to see Zini holding its support level today.

Based on volume, I think the bigs boys are agreeing that $9.5 is standout value.

Who reckons the best play ZFX could make is to keep its cash in a raboplus high interest account and wait for these blue sky miners to start running into inevitable production delays/problems, falling metal prices and cashflow crunch and then use the funds to bail them out(takeover). We could effectively get AGM and others for a fraction of the price. At this rate MCR, SMY and WSA are looking the better options.

In the meantime return some capital from future profits to long and short suffering shareholders.

 

[Ken]

I have 750 shares.

But I have decided to sit tight now.

The time will come when money will made on ZFX.


But right now.

Why bother with the stress of sticking out a down trend that could last 6 months?

 

[Fed23]

Why doesnt ZFX just pull the plug on AGM offer.

AGM is only been help up in SP becasue ZFX offer. If ZFX pulls out AGM will just have a free fall to bottom, then management can kick themselves for saying we dont think ZFX offer was high enough.