ZFX - Zinifex Limited
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ZFX pretty reliably pivoting on the fib levels and often quite severly
agree the current stall (turn??) from the recent down leg is on the 50% LT point of $1140 but the one just prior was at the fib extension of ABC price action since its top
the first target from the top was $1490 (confirmed - heaps of resistance in that area)
the second $1140 (confirmed) but moved on to the biggie at 1140
just taking the price action since dec5 the ST fib targets are 1178 (not really tradable on daily fib scale as it has been necessary to wait to confirm the bottom
second level 1220 (today??)
third level 1288 (today??)
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oops! correction in bold
daffy, donald, mickey, bugs, road runner, goofy, taz, - needed more characters
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ROFL
But seriously, TF can you elaborate on how you arrive at the $14.90 figure which you say is confirmed - how? I can see the $11.90 on the chart.
I ask from a point of ignorance, not of criticism, you understand.
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Fibonacci Projections
INPUT
A 2164
B 1471
C 1870 1442 1177 749
this is the data as it displays in a small excel program to input the typical A (start of down leg) B (bottom of run {reversal}) C top of run (reversal again) and the bold values are the first, second, and possibly third targets of the next down leg
the numbers here are for the main zig zag downer from the top for ZFX
if you think you may be interested I can send you the program
the main retrace is simply the overall up leg from 180 to 2100 (roughly) and the 50% retrace of that is the $11.40 referred to
use for any ABC pattern - either up or down
often works but as always fundamentals trump t/a
it helps overcome the trader's main dilemma "is that turning and how far will it reverse??" because you are aware of the prospective turning points and projected retraces
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Good news for Zinifex in my opinion, I do not want them to overpaid for any company considering the current market. $1 is more than enough.
WBII
Good that it makes us both happy, it isn't usual for both sides to be happy in a situation like this. It will be interesting to see who is the happiest in six months time.
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ZFX will offer around $1.15. $1.20 tops and that will be enough. In the current market, they will be flooded with signed forms accepting $1.15...$1.20
Without ZFX, AGM are 50c the way the market is. They were 65c before ZFX came along. Since then the market has been smashed.
I'm sure Jinchuan will work nicely with ZFX. Their offtake agreement is binding on whoever buys AGM.
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hi Nioka
just read Jinchuan's letter and it doesn't say they will not accept the ZFX offer - even at $1 - they just say they support the AGM board and obviously the board can decide anything
the only way you are sure of saving AGM from the clutches of ZFX is to get yourself a controlling interest in AGM of 50.1%
My crystal ball for the coming weeks tells me that ZFX will up its AGM price to 1.18. Jinchuan gives it the nod and ups its stake in ZFX to 5% looking to hold 10% going forward. Tha ball won't tell me what will happen to the ZFX SP though it did reveal that another takeover announcement by Michelmore was imminent, this time for a copper miner/producer.
The banks continue their rate rise, this time increasing their business lending rates a crazy 5% above the consumer rate justifying it as prudent risk management.
Companies with short/medium term debt obligations continue to get pounded dragging the XAO to its 5600 support where it will remain steady until mid 2008. The market seems to be well supported by superfunds with nowhere else to park their money.
I am also told that Cash Is King, whatever that means.
The banks continue their rate rise, this time increasing their business lending rates a crazy 5% above the consumer rate justifying it as prudent risk management.
Companies with short/medium term debt obligations continue to get pounded dragging the XAO to its 5600 support where it will remain steady until mid 2008. The market seems to be well supported by superfunds with nowhere else to park their money.
I am also told that Cash Is King, whatever that means.
From today's Australian. "Jinchuan vows not to sell Allegience stake".. Going on to say "Takeover target Allegience Mining was buoyed by it's largest shareholder, Chinese nickel giant Jinchuan strongly backing the board in the face of a hostile bidfrom the zinc giant Zinifex."
I like to think I am one of the many who will hold out. It does not need 50.1% to hold out. ZFX has to get a lot more than that before they can completely take over the Company.
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1) maybe you should read the actual letter
2) never trust a broker
3) never trust a journalist
4) 50.1% is a controlling interest
5) never let emotion interfere with trading stocks
(all just suggestions based on experience)
I just hope ZFX has a plan B.
Sure this a great opportunity to diversify into nickel, but it's definately not worth losing an arm and a leg over.
As someone mentioned before; given current market conditions and the AGM shareprice before the offer, the current premium ZFX is offering is MORE than sufficient.
Let the AGM shareholders hold out if they want to, only to subsequently watch their shares plummet back down to $0.65-0.70 as ZFX withdraws it's offer.
I just hope that the directors don't become 'obsessed' with AGM and end up paying more than they have to. It would be good for them to keep an open mind, and given the current downturn in the markets, there is every chance that other opportunities will present themselves.
As for ZFX's fortunes; I will be buying at $9.50...... see you guys down there....
1. I have
2. Don't use brokers.
3. Agree but they do influence events.
4. Under company law a "controlling interest" can do nothing that will be detrimental to minority shareholders. The company will still operate as a separate identity.
5. Emotion doesn't come into this matter. I just don't want to be sold short.
( also based on many years experience and one as a major shareholder and director of a company where minority shareholders were a "pain in the neck.")
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ZFX only needs 50.1%, who cares about the Chinese, they can get a controlling stake and then renegociate the contract with the Chinese company, if they do not like the new offer see you next time.
This Chinese company is only making smoke because they have an agreement for the production of AGM, no more than that, it is not about price.
WBII
This Chinese company is only making smoke because they have an agreement for the production of AGM, no more than that, it is not about price.
WBII
ZFX holders should be more worried why the SP of ZFX has fallen so much in the last 6 months rather than concentrate on a takeover of AGM. This fall started long before the attempted take over of AGM was mooted. Is the takeover of AGM a desperate attempt to reverse this alarming trend by getting another potential cash cow on the cheap?. The chart for ZFX is dismal to say the least. I'm glad that I hold AGM and not ZFX.
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I agree 'NIOKA', also I think the market is not confident with the AGM take over, as I have written previously IGO MCR WSA or SMY would have been a better objective.porkpie
Why would MCR be a t/o prospect for ZFX?
I may be missing something here but I understood that all of MCR's output was conracted to BHP for some time yet.
