Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[Bill M]

with low interest rates for the next couple of years ( money in the bank is useless) hence we will see growth in commodities /stock and real estate (residential properties) until we reach the top of the clock which will be represented with energy stocks booming ,then we will see a decline , unfortunately know one knows when,

The biggest risk for us retired older people is return of capital, not return on capital. I just reckon that as the share markets being at all time highs it's just going to have to crash at some stage. Probably still going run for a while but we can't risk a massive fall. Even though my prediction is a bit on the high side I am definitely not all in. I can't afford to lose half my money in a stock market crash, so for me return of capital is more important than return on capital. However, if/when that crash comes I'll be straight back in there. Eating a bit of my capital is currently a better option than risking a market crash. If I was working and younger I might be thinking differently. I like your comments, thanks.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

5723 Coober Pedy postcode living underground

 

[Dark1975]

The biggest risk for us retired older people is return of capital, not return on capital. I just reckon that as the share markets being at all time highs it's just going to have to crash at some stage. Probably still going run for a while but we can't risk a massive fall. Even though my prediction is a bit on the high side I am definitely not all in. I can't afford to lose half my money in a stock market crash, so for me return of capital is more important than return on capital. However, if/when that crash comes I'll be straight back in there. Eating a bit of my capital is currently a better option than risking a market crash. If I was working and younger I might be thinking differently. I like your comments, thanks.

I totally agree with your statement and yes no one wants to risk there hard working capital , l trade daily with 10% of my portfolio on small caps and about 50% of my capital in long term stock, most of my stock selections are with high dividend yields like TWE, AGL, ORG, WBC, BOQ, TLS, RRL,FMG, so if the market does decline im still getting a return , (unless it becomes Covid #2) , I guess no one can predict the future , tho we can all have fun speculating ?
Btw Enjoyed reading everyone's post on this thread, gives me a perspective on people's outlook to the next 12mths

 

[Bill M]

5723 Coober Pedy postcode living underground

Added, thank you.

Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99........................7800
systematic..............8220 - I believe in miracles

 

[CNHTractor]

7344 - disruptor in chief gone, so possibly back to less volatility

 

[rcm617]

8000.
With low interest rates apparently here to stay for the next few years, where else do you invest your hard earned?

 

[Ferret]

7150

Gains continuing after a pull back in the first half.

 

[Bill M]

7344 - disruptor in chief gone, so possibly back to less volatility

8000.
With low interest rates apparently here to stay for the next few years, where else do you invest your hard earned?

7150

Gains continuing after a pull back in the first half.

Added, thank you.

Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles

 

[brerwallabi]

8450, it’s taken years to get back to where we are now, I believe we will be in a bull market that will last some years.

 

[tech/a]

The biggest risk for us retired older people is return of capital, not return on capital. I just reckon that as the share markets being at all time highs it's just going to have to crash at some stage. Probably still going run for a while but we can't risk a massive fall. Even though my prediction is a bit on the high side I am definitely not all in. I can't afford to lose half my money in a stock market crash, so for me return of capital is more important than return on capital. However, if/when that crash comes I'll be straight back in there. Eating a bit of my capital is currently a better option than risking a market crash. If I was working and younger I might be thinking differently. I like your comments, thanks.

Hear you loud and clear Bill
But agree with Dark1975 although I think I’ll be upping the %
having said that longer term portfolios in the short term if
managed well should return exceptional figures.
There are some I know ( not mine) returning +50%
These days liquidation can be a click away 20 seconds
( Sell all positions) there is a panic button.

 

[mcgrath111]

I'm thinking We will finish the year largely flat, just under 7,000.
Maybe housing can be propped up some more and we can see some negative rates?
People I know are tightening belts, even as we get back to normal I don't think consumer spending will return; fear of the unknown is still lurking.

 

[Bill M]

8450, it’s taken years to get back to where we are now, I believe we will be in a bull market that will last some years.

I'm thinking We will finish the year largely flat, just under 7,000.
Maybe housing can be propped up some more and we can see some negative rates?
People I know are tightening belts, even as we get back to normal I don't think consumer spending will return; fear of the unknown is still lurking.

Added, thank you.

CLOSING IN JUST OVER 3 HOURS, would anyone else like to have a go?

Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966 - Minimal growth overall
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
mcgrath111...........7000 - fear of the unknown lurking
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200 - buy the dip rates low
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500 - few shocks along the way
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles
brerwallabi............8450 - will be in bull market

 

[Bill M]

All the entries are in for the prediction of where the XAO will end the calendar year in 2021, thank you. Feel free to comment throughout the year as things move along. Hoping for a healthy and wealthy 2021, good luck to you all.

Here's the final line up.

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966 - Minimal growth overall
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
mcgrath111...........7000 - fear of the unknown lurking
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200 - buy the dip rates low
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500 - few shocks along the way
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles
brerwallabi............8450 - will be in bull market

 

[UMike]

Not In I 'spose but 6000 for what it is worth.

Think there a going to be consistent head winds all year.

 

[frugal.rock]

Thought I'd update this thread.
Going through the entries, clearly the XAO has outdone most expectectations.
Current placers below.
XAO closed Friday 3/9/2021 on
7826.7

shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000

So thus far,
@PZ99 closest to the mark, followed by @rcm617 with @shaka on third.

Here's a chart. Noticed a higher average volume from around 11th August.
That date seems to likely match up with around the time the government started handing out money in brazen, wanton and largesse fashion to the large majority, again, to stay at home...


Solid bull run really, and not seeing to many things raising major red flags...yet.
There's a few concerns, such as Fed tapering talks and Delta surging, but nothing that doesn't already seem priced in.
We'll see what happens when 8 ? million or so overfed and underworked people can go back to work...

 

[divs4ever]

** We'll see what happens when 8 ? million or so overfed and underworked people can go back to work... **

probably half will die from heart disease or industrial accidents

that is if they ever work again

i am a member of a US F.I.R.E. forum , where a large number of well-paid members HATE their MEGAcorp jobs , and plot to retire early ( but not be broke while they enjoy their 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, etc,etc )

so i always wondered if those in well-paid positions , were so willing to escape their toxic work-places , what about the blue-collar folks , maybe that is why they are so desperately enticing Hispanics into the US , so SOME work might get done .

 

[peter2]

XAO = 7600 with one month to go @shaka is still looking good.

 

[KevinBB]

XAO = 7600 with one month to go @shaka is still looking good.

so is @explod

KH

 

[PZ99]

If this is on I'll go for 7800

7800 degrees Fahrenheit

 

[Smurf1976]

7800 degrees Fahrenheit

View attachment 135009

Hmm... I've got that CD, might have to play it.

Sticking with the music theme, I'll pick 5150 for the ASX at the end of 2022.

A correction is due and 5150 is the name of a Van Halen album from the same era as Bon Jovi's 7800' so that'll do.