Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[Ann]

I am looking at a top of around 10,000 using a swing trade calculation for 2022 but feel it may tail away to about 9500 by December's end.
So 9500 for me.

However, with the song lyrics theme let's go Motley Crue 10,000 Miles Away which is probably where my prediction will come in...10,000 miles away!

 

[Bill M]

And the winner is PZ99, only 50 points off, well done!!!!!!

Thank you for doing all the updates throughout the year too, much appreciated.

Would anyone like to have a punt for year end 2021?

Happy New Year everyone.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators......WINNER
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in

All the entries are in for the prediction of where the XAO will end the calendar year in 2021, thank you. Feel free to comment throughout the year as things move along. Hoping for a healthy and wealthy 2021, good luck to you all.

Here's the final line up.

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966 - Minimal growth overall
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
mcgrath111...........7000 - fear of the unknown lurking
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200 - buy the dip rates low
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500 - few shocks along the way
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800 WINNER 2nd year in a row, what a ripper, well done
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles
brerwallabi............8450 - will be in bull market

PZ99.......................7800 WINNER 2nd year in a row, what a ripper, well done!!

 

[PZ99]

PZ99.......................7800 WINNER 2nd year in a row, what a ripper, well done!!

3rd year bro. LOL

6800, 6800, 7800

Nice round figures

 

[peter2]

Please don't choose 6800 again. Shudder. . .

 

[qldfrog]

Between inflation twisting figures, number of gold producers in oz, currency exchange , generations of traders used to BTD plus gov trickery and end of any real covid medical threat,i shake the box and look thru the crystal ball: 5800 it says? but a lot of volatility in between now and dec 22

 

[Bill M]

3rd year bro. LOL

6800, 6800, 7800

Nice round figures

Holy Moly, 3 years in a row winner, I should have gone back further.

Mate, you got to put in a guess for this year. I will base one trade on my favourite ETF no matter which way your prediction goes.

2022 should be interesting, I'm playing it very cautiously. I have a bit of everything but I am getting lazy too. I have bought into QSuper's lifetime pension where it will never run out.

So lets do year end predictions for 2022, some of you already have.

Mine is, 7933 "nothing has changed, markets up"

 

[Bill M]

Please give us your best guess as to where the XAO index will end in 2022 with 5 or 6 words (if you want to) of why you chose that number.

I'll get it all together here as we get the predictions in.

To be fair to everyone who may be away or crook or busy doing more important things how about we have all entries in by Sunday 16th Jan 2022 closing midnight.

So far we have:

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000

 

[Knobby22]

Haven't had the blow off yet. 9900

 

[peter2]

8529 - huge range during year hitting 127% extension

@Bill M Thanks

 

[divs4ever]

Please don't choose 6800 again. Shudder. . .

OK then 5800 , there are hints the market should trend upwards to March , but one day the financiers will look at the Chinese construction industry , and realize the business model that was over-ambitious is widely used across the developed world , and they should be using the risk calculators elsewhere as well , tightening credit ( outside of Central Banks ) will flow on , making SOME corporate bonds worthy of investment cash .. sucking even more money from the share market

caveat ... i have been wrong about this crash since 2013 , so DYOR

 

[divs4ever]

qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between

WHOOPS

hadn't spotted that could i be moved to 5550 please ... same rationale , higher first , but then someone smart will crunch the numbers ( look for REITs to lose their shine early in the slide )

 

[divs4ever]

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due

yes i agree , but see some attempt by Central banks ( and government ) to slow the slide , i suspect this baby will be a U or L curve , we have already had the K recovery so don't expect much help from the small caps

 

[Bill M]

Haven't had the blow off yet. 9900

8529 - huge range during year hitting 127% extension

@Bill M Thanks

WHOOPS

hadn't spotted that could i be moved to 5550 please ... same rationale , higher first , but then someone smart will crunch the numbers ( look for REITs to lose their shine early in the slide )

All added thanks.

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

 

[brerwallabi]

I will say 9252, it’s a bull market and it won’t run out of steam for a couple of years

 

[Bill M]

I will say 9252, it’s a bull market and it won’t run out of steam for a couple of years

Added thanks.

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

 

[Sean K]

I'm in two minds. If interest rates remain where they are and the Fed doesn't taper then I agree with the upper level picks, but if the opposite happens and liquidity is taken out, then the bottom picks will be closer to the mark.

So, I'm going for something in between and there is a very slight taper, and perhaps one interest rate rise, and we end up in the middle of the long term trend.

Sean......7200....going for something in between

Outlier scenarios involve Russia taking the eastern half of Ukraine and China doing something to Taiwan (not ready for full out assault yet) that will throw a spanner amongst the pigeons.

 

[sptrawler]

Clean energy driving construction and resources, personal debt driving down unemployment, pork barreling adding the cream in an election year.
8900 is my guess, nothing like positive thinking.

 

[wayneL]

I'm also in two minds, depending on what Central banks do with interest rates and other actions.

If they keep rates artificially low we get a crack up boom/high inflation. If they start pumping rates it'll take everything out.

In any case it's a megalithic House of cards that will collapse in a heap at some stage. The question is whether it's this year or next.

Pure guess - 4867... And probably in for the wooden spoon on that one.

 

[Logique2]

8800 for me, thanks Bill M.

A more subdued year as reality bites (policy tightening). Momentum into the first half, a winter of discontent, then improvement into the close.

 

[divs4ever]

I'm also in two minds, depending on what Central banks do with interest rates and other actions.

If they keep rates artificially low we get a crack up boom/high inflation. If they start pumping rates it'll take everything out.

In any case it's a megalithic House of cards that will collapse in a heap at some stage. The question is whether it's this year or next.

Pure guess - 4867... And probably in for the wooden spoon on that one.

if you are a winner ( and i don't mean the wooden spoon ) , i'll probably be a grinner .. i have some spare cash awaiting a better place to be

good luck