Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[PZ99]

I'll update this at the end of trade today but a huge green explosion is imminent

Dow soars to first intraday record in 9 months on upbeat report on Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine candidate, Biden presidency > https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...iontech-candidate-biden-presidency-2020-11-09

 

[PZ99]

Aust shares up 0.66 pct, energy surges

Steven Deare
Tue, 10 November 2020, 4:24 pm AEDT

Australia's share market has closed at an eight-month high for the second consecutive session after promising results for a coronavirus vaccine.
The S&P/ASX200 benchmark index closed up 41.7 points, or 0.66 per cent, to 6340.5 on Tuesday.
The index reached a session high of 6438.2 in the first 20 minutes of trade, then eased.

The All Ordinaries gained 28.3 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 6544.0.
There was a whopping gain of 8.54 per cent for the energy sector, as traders hoped a coronavirus vaccine would later help people to travel more.
Pfizer prompted a rally on global markets after it said its experimental vaccine was more than 90 per cent effective in preventing COVID-19.
The Aussie dollar was buying 72.82 US cents at 1619 AEDT, down from 72.94 US cents at Monday's close.

Aust shares up 0.66 pct, energy surges

Investors have enjoyed ASX shares closing at an eight-month high for the second consecutive time after promising coronavirus vaccine results fuelled optimism.

au.finance.yahoo.com

 

[sptrawler]

I think the virus blew my legs off. ?

 

[PZ99]

I think the virus blew my legs off. ?

In my case it was the hair

Bit of a shame the gains in the US didn't realy get replicated here save for the banks but that's life on the fast lane I guess.

 

[greggles]

I'm still in with a shot.

A 500 point XAO collapse by the end of December isn't out of the question given what is unfolding around the world with COVID-19.

If Biden croaks before taking office it could be even worse.

 

[frugal.rock]

I think the virus blew my legs of

In my case it was the hair

In my case it was the cigarettes, which blew a load of lard on.

And there I was thinking early in the year that I had way underestimated on 7333.
What a year eh, and it's not over yet...
Can I revise my figure to 6888 ?

 

[Smurf1976]

The XAO has closed at 6850.60 so the winner would seem to be PZ99 with "6800" as their entry.

??

Not bad, the closest entry is within 1% of the actual, and that's despite what I don't think anyone would dispute has been a genuinely unprecedented set of circumstances this year.

I'll post my guess for 2021 over the weekend.

 

[frugal.rock]

Does anyone know what it started on?
Very flat result either way....
Congrats @PZ99 , whoda thunk it, eh?!
Prize is in the mail...

 

[Bill M]

And the winner is PZ99, only 50 points off, well done!!!!!!

Thank you for doing all the updates throughout the year too, much appreciated.

Would anyone like to have a punt for year end 2021?

Happy New Year everyone.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators......WINNER
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in

 

[So_Cynical]

Close but no cigar 6667 ~ well-done zz

 

[PZ99]

Strange result.

It's the same (joint) winning value I picked the previous year so it's a bit of an anti climax given the events.

Cheers and happy new year

 

[Smurf1976]

My guess for 2021 is:

6952 - expecting volatility but minimal year on year growth

 

[Smurf1976]

Does anyone know what it started on?

Opened at 6800.3 so up a mere 0.74% for the year.

Which is actually a great reason why investors should be a member of this forum.

Because it's timing the market and stock selection, not simply spending time in an index fund, that will have driven profits for those who made a decent return over the past 12 months.

I'll go a step further there and say that while the All Ords was up slightly, the ASX200 which what someone will more likely have tracked via a fund was down 1.4% for the year.

There's a place for funds but there's a definite place for an active approach be that stock selection, market timing or both.

 

[frugal.rock]

frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic

Echo.
Same again. 7333

 

[PZ99]

If this is on I'll go for 7800

 

[peter2]

2021 will be another interesting year for sure.
Global companies will get the business from the large companies as they struggle. Large companies will get the business from medium size companies as they go broke. Medium companies will get the business from the smaller companies that have gone broke. Zombie companies and the "stonks" will be exposed. Minimal growth overall.

XAO at EOY2021 = 6966

Plenty of opportunities for the quick in both directions especially in the small/micro cap sector as jaded insto's hunt for "alpha".
eg Early example from AFI who has stated they're going to add small cap companies to their large cap funds.

 

[Knobby22]

I 100% agree with #peter2.
I reckon the market will crash a bit, go back up reset again but rise as the year ends 7069

 

[Bill M]

Yes, why not run the predictions again? Same rules, put in 5 words or less if you wish to, it's not compulsory though. It's so hard to predict, some people are calling a massive reversal and others are saying it's going higher. I think I will go with my last years prediction, 7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates. If you wish to change your number or your 5 words or less comments before the cut off time, let me know and I'll update it.

We better have a cut off time. How about, get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.

Here's what we have so far:

Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
PZ99........................7800

 

[tech/a]

7385
low interest less reliance on china
repairs to China /Aust relations.

 

[investtrader]

7500. I think low interest rates will continue to force investors into equities. A few shocks along the way and high volatility though. Could be higher if the China trade thing gets sorted.