Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[divs4ever]

Outlier scenarios involve Russia taking the eastern half of Ukraine

more likely those states will move the Russian border themselves ( in the middle of the night )

Putin is probably hoping the Ukraine mess will break the EU ( and NATO ) without even warming up the tank engines , so i think would be happy to have the Ukraine has an example of EU promises kept ( or not ) to deter any other nation states from flocking to the EU , remember Russia a and it's loyal satellite states have HEAPS of undeveloped resources and two HUNGRY customers ( China and India )

i wonder if Russia is taking it's time to deliver gas via Nordstream to simply see if the Ukraine infrastructure fails , or just to give them a taste of relying on US LNG,

now China and Taiwan could resolve quickly or in centuries Taiwan relies on importing/exporting and much of the world is a financial basket case how long can you survive economically when most of your customers are deadbeats ( struggle to pay their debts )

will China invade , or just toy with it causing 'allies ' to overspend on military budgets ( for however long it chooses )

 

[Bill M]

I'm in two minds. If interest rates remain where they are and the Fed doesn't taper then I agree with the upper level picks, but if the opposite happens and liquidity is taken out, then the bottom picks will be closer to the mark.

So, I'm going for something in between and there is a very slight taper, and perhaps one interest rate rise, and we end up in the middle of the long term trend.

Sean......7200....going for something in between

Outlier scenarios involve Russia taking the eastern half of Ukraine and China doing something to Taiwan (not ready for full out assault yet) that will throw a spanner amongst the pigeons.

Clean energy driving construction and resources, personal debt driving down unemployment, pork barreling adding the cream in an election year.
8900 is my guess, nothing like positive thinking.

I'm also in two minds, depending on what Central banks do with interest rates and other actions.

If they keep rates artificially low we get a crack up boom/high inflation. If they start pumping rates it'll take everything out.

In any case it's a megalithic House of cards that will collapse in a heap at some stage. The question is whether it's this year or next.

Pure guess - 4867... And probably in for the wooden spoon on that one.

8800 for me, thanks Bill M.

A more subdued year as reality bites (policy tightening). Momentum into the first half, a winter of discontent, then improvement into the close.

Added thanks.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

 

[Bill M]

Please give us your best guess as to where the XAO index will end in 2022 with 5 or 6 words (if you want to) of why you chose that number.

I'll get it all together here as we get the predictions in.

To be fair to everyone who may be away or crook or busy doing more important things how about we have all entries in by Sunday 16th Jan 2022 closing midnight.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

 

[shaka]

8600 - looks like it's still trending up

 

[wayneL]

I think it would actually be very interesting to have some sort of prognostication of the actual drivers of the market, such as the 10-year yield.

I heard an opinion that the stock market is actually a derivative of the debt market... And I think that is actually very true.

Tough thing to predict considering the influence of Central Banks and their interventions.

I'll go 2.5%.

The big question is whether that will trash the equities/RE market or not, but at that level might just be enough to put the wind up the punters.

Fwiw

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

8200 thanks @Bill M . Just following the long term trend up. I'll be close or the biggest loser.

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

8777
A dartboard throw, surely not?

 

[frugal.rock]

I'll go 2.5%.

There's always one in the bunch...?

 

[wayneL]

Always happy to provide amusement

 

[wayneL]

Always happy to provide amusement

In all seriousness @frugal.rock the debt market is the key to this whole thing. We all know that the central banks are very active in this but there could become a point where bond traders take the fark over.

That's when sheit becomes extremely interesting. It will be like the market shooting some protons into a critical mass.

E = MC2

 

[Bill M]

8600 - looks like it's still trending up

8200 thanks @Bill M . Just following the long term trend up. I'll be close or the biggest loser.

gg

8777
A dartboard throw, surely not?

These have been added, thanks!

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

 

[Bill M]

Just as a bit of a reminder, our respected member @PZ99 has won the last 3 years in a row with his predictions. It is hard enough just winning one, is he gifted? is he the wise one? does he know more than any of us? will he win again?

Get your entries in now, closes on Sunday, 16th Jan 2022, at Midnight.

 

[qldfrog]

Just as a bit of a reminder, our respected member @PZ99 has won the last 3 years in a row with his predictions. It is hard enough just winning one, is he gifted? is he the wise one? does he know more than any of us? will he win again?

Get your entries in now, closes on Sunday, 16th Jan 2022, at Midnight.

Has he discovered time travel?

 

[StockyGuy]

Has he discovered time travel?

maybe an Illuminati member ?

 

[Iggy_Pop]

Bill, I see a stedy rise with a bit of volititlity at times. So the number I have is 8189

Iggy

 

[Bill M]

Bill, I see a stedy rise with a bit of volititlity at times. So the number I have is 8189

Iggy

Added, thanks Iggy.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

 

[Knobby22]

Big gap between 7200 and 5800 which is statistically pretty likely.

 

[Bill M]

Alright everybody, not long to go before this gets closed off. As this is the last trading day of the week you might as well get your predictions in today.

Please give us your best guess as to where the XAO index will end in 2022 with 5 or 6 words (if you want to) of why you chose that number.

All entries must be in by Sunday 16th Jan 2022 closing midnight.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Bill M,
My Call is 8347 by 31/12/22 - That is based heavily on TA, but with a pinch of World Economics thrown into the mix.
Reckon a Low point within the next 12 mths may be abt 6384.
I don't normally get involved with LT Calls on anything, so there is a lot of ST TA Theory in my 8347 call.

 

[Bill M]

Hi Bill M,
My Call is 8347 by 31/12/22 - That is based heavily on TA, but with a pinch of World Economics thrown into the mix.
Reckon a Low point within the next 12 mths may be abt 6384.
I don't normally get involved with LT Calls on anything, so there is a lot of ST TA Theory in my 8347 call.
View attachment 135732

Added, thanks DrBourse.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
DrBourse..................8347....That is based heavily on TA
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet