XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

>Apocalypto< · 24 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Next target from me 6880

Nice to see your projection tech and I was thinking around 6800 on the last fail on 6400 based on a measured move on the xjo.

Well I'm not complaining with your projection and it lines up with another wave users thoughts of 6800-6900, also I am long on the xjo

Still have some resistance to beat but this 45 degree angle is proving very valid on this current price action.

Good trading.

>Apocalypto< · 24 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Next target from me 6880

Tech 1 more q for u, on your projection target do u have a time frame for that? Not a day just a time point

Have taken profits on my long on xjo

nizar · 24 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Trade_It said:
Tech 1 more q for u, on your projection target do u have a time frame for that? Not a day just a time point

Have taken profits on my long on xjo

Looks like Wall St. will ruin it again for us.
Theres now some resistance building up at the 6450 level.

>Apocalypto< · 24 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

nizar said:
Looks like Wall St. will ruin it again for us.
Theres now some resistance building up at the 6450 level.

Yeh saw that Nizar, watched the us futures paint a bleak picture for today on the st and maybe for us tomorrow.

That's why I took profits on my xjo long got to love the night session in that regard.

Hmmm I still got a csl cfd trade open that looks like fun with the wild build up in heath care sector today could see it raining sell orders tomorrow!

tech/a · 25 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Hmm.

Was looking for a clear break of 6440. Thought we had that.
Seems to be that we will go back into this range.

Trade it.
I dont use time so Until 6190 is taken out or 6880 is reached.I have no idea.

tech/a · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of all portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.

With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.

While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.

Not that anyone cares--

dj_420 · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of all portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.

With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.

While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.

Not that anyone cares--

even your long term portfolio?

i sold my short termers today, still holding my long term stocks.

taken fair bit of profit now, and have margin loan at the ready for leverage at the bottom if we see a correction

tech/a · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Yes!! all.

The T/Trader portfolio will still be run live as it always has been on Reefcap so time will tell if my decision was wise. ( I traded a version of T/T myself.).
We will only close that portfolio if it trades out of the numbers given by the system.

billhill · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of all portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.

With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.

While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.

Not that anyone cares--

have to agree with you tech.
I am more worried than usual by this current sell off and think that there is reasonable probability that we could go lower. Although global fundamental remain good the warnings about the subprime in the US we've been hearing about for ages look like they really may affect the economy. A few more disapointing reports from US companies and it won't look good. Plus i'm not much of a techy but even i can see the current XJO chart is a mess. Lesson procede with extreme caution.

Lachlan6 · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Tech-a, the technical purists amongst us would say that that is a wise move. I mean just take one glance at our local market and there is NO denying, this looks weak. Interestingly, the correction in Feb/March this year, never fell beneath the 100 day EMA however this one has done so already, convincingly. The next level of support is interesting, as if this is only a correction (which I think it will be) then we have either of the 50% retracement level from the March lows, or the 200day EMA. If the 200 day EMA is breached, then we will have the beginnings of a much more serious downward movement. This 200 day EMA has been such a great level of support and that is why if this is broken, ah run for the hills.

However I don't think so. Market still not overly stretched, earnings looking relatively good. Depends a lot however on interest rates. Bottom lines will be affected. A real worrying sign though, is the level of that accumulation pattern from May to a few days ago. Very interesting times. Waiting and watching.

>Apocalypto< · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Lachlan6 said:
Tech-a, the technical purists amongst us would say that that is a wise move. I mean just take one glance at our local market and there is NO denying, this looks weak. Interestingly, the correction in Feb/March this year, never fell beneath the 100 day EMA however this one has done so already, convincingly. The next level of support is interesting, as if this is only a correction (which I think it will be) then we have either of the 50% retracement level from the March lows, or the 200day EMA. If the 200 day EMA is breached, then we will have the beginnings of a much more serious downward movement. This 200 day EMA has been such a great level of support and that is why if this is broken, ah run for the hills.

However I don't think so. Market still not overly stretched, earnings looking relatively good. Depends a lot however on interest rates. Bottom lines will be affected. A real worrying sign though, is the level of that accumulation pattern from May to a few days ago. Very interesting times. Waiting and watching.

Lach

one reason it hit the ma with such ease is that the ma straightens and moves closer to the price once it bands for a while.

you see in the feb dip that it was way above it due to the strong trend.

professor_frink · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of all portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.

With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.

While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.

Not that anyone cares--

Bold move tech. Hope it works out for you.

I'd be interested to see the analysis as to why you've done this. I'm gathering it's based off the EW work you've been doing?

theasxgorilla · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I sold 5 out of 7 positions at open this morning. Many went up and closed higher, but I was sleeping at the time so couldn't take that chance. Depending on what the US does tonight I may close the other 2 at open on Monday to end up essentially where tech/a is.

My technical reasoning is along the lines of, "increased volatility, tighten stops". In many of my positions trailing stops and price were converging over the last couple of months anyway...I've learned a lot and made a little in the last 4 years...I'm happy to step aside for the moment and reassess.

ASX.G

>Apocalypto< · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of all portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.

With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.

While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.

Not that anyone cares--

Tech,

I am not in a postion to call a bottom to whats happening now, as markets love to reverse when you look there most vulnerable and doomed.

but with the current fundamentals and the simple fact we are at year 4 in a dynamic bull market.

I say to you on your decision to close out, well done. You have chosen to protect yourself there is nothing wrong with that.

and yes i tend to agree with you this does show more downside then upside right now.

I am sure if it reverses and shows the signs that it will make new highs you will be in it building your portfolio up.

Good trading Tech & Have a Good weekend

wavepicker · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Congatulations on a great number of long term trades Tech, there is nothing loke putting the $$ in the till.

Cheers

Gundini · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I respect your position Tech and all who closed out today...

I have had 3 days of pain and was tempted to do the same thing.

But I have chosen to hold. Sometimes you have to make a stand, and to be honest I don't feel very comfortable about it, but hold I do.

I must admit I would feel better if you guys were still in though, I have a lot of respect for your decisions, and in hindsight I may have followed suit.

What tipped me over was the 100 point recovery on the DOW last night towards the end of trade.

In the lap of the Gods now... Wish me luck!

Captain_Chaza · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

theasxgorilla said:
I sold 5 out of 7 positions at open this morning. Many went up and closed higher, but I was sleeping at the time so couldn't take that chance. Depending on what the US does tonight I may close the other 2 at open on Monday to end up essentially where tech/a is.

My technical reasoning is along the lines of, "increased volatility, tighten stops". In many of my positions trailing stops and price were converging over the last couple of months anyway...I've learned a lot and made a little in the last 4 years...I'm happy to step aside for the moment and reassess.

ASX.G

It would be nice to know which positions "DID NOT" gap down horribly on the open?

Salute and Gods' speed

motorway · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Here are some interesting observations
Some Historical

Something for those Interested in EW or not

motorway

http://www.tsaasf.org/images/stories/Articles/TradersWorld_43a_forte__2_[1].pdf

Let’s address the China factor. In 1921,
the U.S. and British stock markets registered
important corrective lows. The U.S.
market made an eight year hyperbolic run
into the 1929 blow off while Britain only
managed to reach its previous high (posted
in 1900) as the industrial baton was being
passed to the U.S. Similarly, as the U.S.
passes the industrial baton to China, it
is more likely that if any stock market
extends hyperbolically into the 9th or 10th
year of the decade, it will be China. The
“new economy” index as represented by the
Nasdaq, probably at best may double top.
The S&P as of April, 2007 is approaching its
old highs, but may struggle to move much
beyond, if this British comparison holds up.
The Dow industrials have been leading the
market higher for good reason. Emerging
market growth, especially China is pushing
to build its infra-structure and has been
demanding the capital goods of our industrial
companies. This is pulling our markets
higher. It’s not about the U.S. anymore.

wavepicker · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

motorway said:
Here are some interesting observations
Some Historical

Something for those Interested in EW or not

motorway

http://www.tsaasf.org/images/stories/Articles/TradersWorld_43a_forte__2_[1].pdf

Excellent article Motorway, thankyou.

I was aware of chart #2 and it is very interesting to say the least. That is, individual wave structures measured in terms TIME in fibonacci years. This is a good example to show that the market has order and it follows the natural laws that bind the universe together. Ofcourse the same fibonacci relationships are found within price, but IMO are more easily applied using time.

Other fibonacci numbers that can be relevant(but not mentioned in this article) are the "twins" of the natural fib numbers: 3+3 =6 5+5 = 10, 8+8=16, 13+13= 26 etc.....

Cheers

theasxgorilla · 27 July 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Captain_Chaza said:
It would be nice to know which positions "DID NOT" gap down horribly on the open?

They all gapped down...horribly is a subjective term. But unless you are short or waiting to be short no gap down can be contrued as a positive thing.

I was more or less waiting for this moment to reassess what I was doing anyhow. In equities a purge of the portfolio from time to time can be a good thing

XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

>Apocalypto<

20.03.2012

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Problem solved... next bubble.

>Apocalypto<

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Problem solved... next bubble.

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