XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I think you may have made a big mistake by selling up your whole portfolio and are trying to justify a fall, but it ain't gonna happen.

Says Kris who has just told the world that he has "perfectly" timed the investment of his full net worth into Colonial Super last Monday.

Kris your welcome to my canoe,I paddled like hell and got out of the water.
Goodluck.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

the dow closed under a very significante support line, there is another clue. Demands can drop very quickly, there is never certainty in the markets,

...demand can drop and support can return again.

I see the DJIA ON support, but not under it, 13200.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Says Kris who has just told the world that he has "perfectly" timed the investment of his full net worth into Colonial Super last Monday.

Kris your welcome to my canoe,I paddled like hell and got out of the water.
Goodluck.

Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

 

[gfresh]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Personally I cannot see any signs that this will hold.. confidence is out of the picture, and now major mortgage companies are getting hit. Next stop seems to be 12800.

Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

How can you predict that? US Dow Futures was up 100 points before opening, even up in early trade, but the Dow itself ended 146 points down at the end of the day.. There is a lot further to go before this pulls itself out.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

...demand can drop and support can return again.

I see the DJIA ON support, but not under it, 13200.

Yep,

I see that asx i had one just above it.

hmm we are very close. cant say which one holds more sway.

Demand comment, I am referring to the massive demand for base metals at the moment which you would think will stabilize some what rather then grow.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

STC,

This may be a two day affair or it may be something alot more.

How can u tell that from this current picture, is what I want to know.

Or are you really wishing your in tech's position?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I No Longer care if Im right OR wrong.
If I'm right then I watch with indifference and plot my next strategy.
If I'm wrong I miss some capital gain (In my portfolio) from 6170 to 6440.

My Risk has been diminished.
Profits have been made and banked.

Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

Fancy that!!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

Fancy That!!


XJO 6040.3 -103.9 -1.7%

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

UGLY

 

[finnsk]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Is this similar to what happend in May of 2006 or is it worse?

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

and sinking........

wonder if this will turn into the "point of recognition" in the next few days.Or will it find support rally first put in a lower high and then do the trick

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

18 points to go until we go under 6000. If we close under that, there might be panic tomorrow morning. For us, 6000 is just another support, but from what I hear, for the mums and dads, some would decide to sell en-mass as 6000 is quite a bit of a psychological support for the not so informed/experienced investors. I've always wondered how many of those there are in Australia.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

and sinking........

wonder if this will turn into the "point of recognition" in the next few days.Or will it find support rally first put in a lower high and then do the trick

By my reckoning 5900 on both the XAO and XJO are absolutely critical. But from my view, the energy sector is doing rather well. Albeit without WPL...

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

stop being so dramatic...base metals are looking OK, and the aussie market will be protected from major falls over coming weeks due to the reporting season.

I think you may have made a big mistake by selling up your whole portfolio and are trying to justify a fall, but it ain't gonna happen.

Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

Famous last words?
Market must've just been waiting for you to be fully invested to continue the slide.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Ouch with a capital "OH"

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Ouch with a capital "OH"

XJO even worse 203 points

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Is this similar to what happend in May of 2006 or is it worse?

The patterns are slightly different, but the key difference as I see it is the timeframe that the patterns are forming over. It seems to be of larger scale. This time the market lost momentum over a longer period of time and has fallen to it's 200-day MA much faster than May '06. Coupled with some volume and sector analysis I've been doing this suggests that the distribution has gone on for longer this time. The timing of fundamental market factors like the once off superannuation contribution must be considered as a bigger than usual June 30th event and suggest to me who the new holders of the distributed positions are likely to be.

Something to ponder...if you were one of those who took advantage of the super contribution situation and put your million into super earlier this year...would you be looking at a red or black account balance right now? If so, to what extent? Would you start pulling your money out, lest you went on to lose 30% like you did in your mutual funds back in '02? You're 5 years closer to retirement now...300k buys a lot of retirement living. A catalyst for further selling, perhaps?

Otherwise it is remarkably similar to May '06 so far. Key point to watch...does the XAO close below it's 200-day MA? This have NEVER happened during this bull run. IMO, any prolonged price action below this MA would signal something happening on a larger scale than May '06 or Feb '07.

 

[nizar]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

The patterns are slightly different, but the key difference as I see it is the timeframe that the patterns are forming over. It seems to be of larger scale. This time the market lost momentum over a longer period of time and has fallen to it's 200-day MA much faster than May '06. Coupled with some volume and sector analysis I've been doing this suggests that the distribution has gone on for longer this time. The timing of fundamental market factors like the once off superannuation contribution must be considered as a bigger than usual June 30th event and suggest to me who the new holders of the distributed positions are likely to be.

Something to ponder...if you were one of those who took advantage of the super contribution situation and put your million into super earlier this year...would you be looking at a red or black account balance right now? If so, to what extent? Would you start pulling your money out, lest you went on to lose 30% like you did in your mutual funds back in '02? You're 5 years closer to retirement now...300k buys a lot of retirement living. A catalyst for further selling, perhaps?

Otherwise it is remarkably similar to May '06 so far. Key point to watch...does the XAO close below it's 200-day MA? This have NEVER happened during this bull run. IMO, any prolonged price action below this MA would signal something happening on a larger scale than May '06 or Feb '07.

Agree wholly ASX.G.

May2006 was kinda disgusting, instead of being a quick, swift, 3-week affair like the October2005 correction (which is what I suspected at the time), it dragged downwards then sideways for about 4 months before going up again.

 

[finnsk]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

ASX
Thanks for your answer from memory it bounced back up before it went further down was thinking along those lines that it "may" happen again tomorrow NOT PREPARED TO GAMBLE on that, and that was the reason for my question, if I understand you correctly if the XAO closes under the 200 ma it could go even further down before it comes back up, interesting.
Have been reading these kind of threads with interest, there is as many opinions as there is members.
I realy appreciate all of the members imputs, not that I understand all of it but I hope that one day I will, and then it will be my turn to help newbies.

Finnsk

 

[EZZA]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

sometimes it hurts to be an investor holding through these corrections.

i see support at 5900, bloody better hold above this point. think it might take a while to recover from this correction. my investment bank bnb, got hammered today along with some of my small caps which always get hit hard during corrections.

anyone with an idea of where they believe support will begin to form again?