XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well I reckon its pretty damned close to the top.

If it doesnt blast through 6440 and capitulates from here (Which could well happen if the US reacts to the Chinese market like I think it will.
The Chinese Govt looks like letting it fall on its own weight.

Tommorow will be fun.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well I reckon its pretty damned close to the top.

If it doesnt blast through 6440 and capitulates from here (Which could well happen if the US reacts to the Chinese market like I think it will.
The Chinese Govt looks like letting it fall on its own weight.

Tommorow will be fun.

Tech good points.

I also with held from any long positions today after seeing it jumping around and not accepting 6400 with any real determination. Would have been a much better case if it could have at least made 6400 on the close.

Agree with you, Chinese gov are letting the fast money chasers learn the hard way that markets move in both ways.

Tonight will be interesting on wall st. wonder what they make of China's weakness.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

XJO made 6428 today and is within 6 points of My Wave extensions.

Anyway I didnt sell my Longs and Didnt load up on Shorts either.
Happened to just check the analysis and read a few News items.

Seemed to make sence to me.

If it goes off this time I think it will be deeper than the Last fall and likely to be sustained.
All analytic speculation yet to be proven.

Check out the Volume and Ranges in the Consolidation.
Really looks like distribution.
Todays high is un convincing.Low volume wide range.

 

[nizar]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Tommorow will be fun.

Why is 2mrw going to be fun ?

Admittedly, you said you didnt sell your longs and didnt load up shorts.

So that means, if you are right, you will lose money.

Is losing money fun?

Dont fall into the trap where being right is more important/fun than making money, i would expect more from a guru who cleans up the market and who has 12 years+ experience

And please dont reply back saying im a beginner.

Im a beginner, amaetur, novices, which ever way you put it. And im More than happy to admit that.

 

[WaySolid]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

SYCOM is at 6381 as I type so nothing exciting is happening yet.

I for one would be very grateful if there was a flight to bricks and mortar from equities sometime soon.. that would be nice. Just from a purely selfish pov.

The volume being traded in the Chinese markets is huge, larger than Japan even. Hard to know how shake ups there will move other markets. I have read the Chinese people have 4 trillion sitting in banks earning negative real returns.. so that's a lot of gunpowder looking for a use.

I live in a working class suburb and my neighbour who is a great guy and who works at the local factory recently offered me two share tips at the same time as telling me about how he had been to one of those very reputable free options trading courses *cough*.

One punter I know who was bearish at the 05 market lows is now a believer in 7000 or higher.. so if my radar is on target then sentiment is pretty high at the moment.

Markets do go down don't they? Since I started trading in March 05 I'm not sure I believe that.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Why is 2mrw going to be fun ?

Admittedly, you said you didnt sell your longs and didnt load up shorts.

So that means, if you are right, you will lose money.

Is losing money fun?

Dont fall into the trap where being right is more important/fun than making money, i would expect more from a guru who cleans up the market and who has 12 years+ experience

And please dont reply back saying im a beginner.

Im a beginner, amaetur, novices, which ever way you put it. And im More than happy to admit that.

Get a grip.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well not a murmur from the US.

 

[CanOz]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well not a murmur from the US.

Down is UP to them, remember.

Cheers,

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Is losing money fun?

There are 2 types of Money losses.

(1) Losses from Initial capital.
This can occur when you start a methodology.
Until you begin to close profitable trades.
If however you are continually drawing on Starting Capital then there is something wrong with your business plan.

(2) Losses from drawdown.
This is simply part of conducting business.
You'll constantly have peak to valley drawdowns. At times considerable.

All businesses suffer from this Month to Month.

Analysis is there fundamental or technical to act as as the catalyst for decision making if a discretionary trader and as the Plan for Systems traders who have a blue print of expectancy which is the final decision making tool.

Both the Analysis for the discretionary trader and the blueprint for the Systems trader will determine course of action.

If proven Correct---continue.
If proven incorrect---cease.

 

[constable]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well not a murmur from the US.

World markets arent desperatley looking for an excuse this time around perhaps and there is possiblly a greater feeling of relief that china has actually done something about their spiralling market. That's my basic interpretation anyways!

 

[Kauri]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well not a murmur from the US.

I think that the rest of the world realises this time around that the decline in China in no way threatens their underlying economy, that the bosses over there are gently deflating the speculative balloon.. good for the world economy if it is done gently. I imagine the State run media will try to keep it under control by printing the right stories. If it starts inflating again I guess they can mention another increase in tax, or even a cap gains tax... maybe even take a shot at property??? Just my thoughts...

 

[nizar]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

There are 2 types of Money losses.

(1) Losses from Initial capital.
This can occur when you start a methodology.
Until you begin to close profitable trades.
If however you are continually drawing on Starting Capital then there is something wrong with your business plan.

(2) Losses from drawdown.
This is simply part of conducting business.
You'll constantly have peak to valley drawdowns. At times considerable.

All businesses suffer from this Month to Month.

Analysis is there fundamental or technical to act as as the catalyst for decision making if a discretionary trader and as the Plan for Systems traders who have a blue print of expectancy which is the final decision making tool.

Both the Analysis for the discretionary trader and the blueprint for the Systems trader will determine course of action.

If proven Correct---continue.
If proven incorrect---cease.

Thanks for that bro.
Great response.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

6226 now critical in this.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Why is 2mrw going to be fun ?

Admittedly, you said you didnt sell your longs and didnt load up shorts.

So that means, if you are right, you will lose money.

Is losing money fun?

Heard of the saying, if you don't laugh you'll cry ??

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Heard of the saying, if you don't laugh you'll cry ??

Sarcasm,excellent one of my favorites.

Confirmation for me will be below 6226.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

The XAO has moved ahead of the XJO... by about 20 points odd. Not much in itself but quite rare?? Would this suggest that the XAO is being driven by the dangerous smaller spec end of town with all the risk inherent with that, with perhaps a move back to the more solid XJO due... or possibly that the bigger end of town is already quietly moving out.... or even that that last glass of Bushmills was one too many???

Has now gone out now by 30 points odd.... if it is a quiet move out by the large end of town I wonder when/if it will get noisy??? :dance:

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Kauri.
The big end of town are already heavily involved.
Take a look at the past 3 days up thrusts.
Each rise obviously met by heavy selling (supply).
I wouldnt expect today to be a great deal different.
Unless we start seeing rises with very little supply coming in this down move is likely to be well supported for sometime.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

If there is a panic sell off there appears nothing on this weekly chart of xjo to prevent a fibonnaci retracement of 38% to 5000., where it was in sept oct 06

Garpal

 

[Kauri]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Kauri.
The big end of town are already heavily involved.
Take a look at the past 3 days up thrusts.
Each rise obviously met by heavy selling (supply).
I wouldnt expect today to be a great deal different.
Unless we start seeing rises with very little supply coming in this down move is likely to be well supported for sometime.

Tech.
Yes, the market seems to be changing its spots... a whiles ago the trend could be looked at on a weekly basis (along with its inevitable corrections)... now it seems to be more a daily thing, swinging wildly to each individual piece of news.. last nights large rally in the U.S. could quite easily reverse and then some if for example their inflation figures this week are interpreted as negative for the market. Meantime opportunities to trade are still there as always, I find my stops are a better indicator of the market than I am ....
I like the easy to understand commentary that comes with TG.. good stuff!!!!
Cheers
Kauri

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Next target from me 6880