XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Please, please, get over yourself.

Yeh tech will get a few calls wrong once here and there, but overall he COLLECTS, and thats the main thing, have a look at techtrader performance you may learn a few things.

Alternatively, you can just sit there toasting yourself.

Nizar
Great post buddy good to see your keeping the forums in line.

And there is no need to jump to techs defense like that, he is very capable of taking care of himself.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Trade_it.

Any analysis can only be interpreted with what we have at the time,until of course that analysis is proven to be correct or incorrect. At that time I wasnt bullish---there was a possibility this wasnt over ---but there was strong evidence that it was---so yes I was hardly bullish.

Prior to posting the idea that the analysis given by others (well before me) and that which I had also looked at on the bearish side,all projections toward a possible low ( by everyone) were possible---until proven in correct.

In post 28 here I posted analysis which was presented as an alternative to the analysis already presented---including mine. Have a read and you'll see how I interpret and now trade dynamic analysis.
The price targets I have set are my own---others will come up with other dates ( I cant calculate dates like others do) and targets--some may confirm.
Again these will be targets and dates that may alter as they are Proven or Disproven.

Sorry to have upset you.
I notice your doing well in currencies.

Tech,

I was not really upset just a little interested in the chart you posted and yeh I was being a smart ass.

When you came at me with the look at my post and see for your self reply It did make me act a little silly after what comments you made about my direction. I am not trying to prove I am better, as I am not.

Just, I like people to post the whole story when they have been telling others that they could be wrong.

Tech dont get me wrong, I love your straight up posting style and the info you post. That's why I knew you would not mind me coming straight at you.

Yeh, Aussie dollar is doing well and it looks like it's forming a flag on the 3 month 4 hour chart. I am looking to add to it.

Regards
Joseph

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Tech,

I was not really upset just a little interested in the chart you posted and yeh I was being a smart ass.

When you came at me with the look at my post and see for your self reply It did make me act a little silly after what comments you made about my direction. I am not trying to prove I am better, as I am not.

Just, I like people to post the whole story when they have been telling others that they could be wrong.

Tech dont get me wrong, I love your straight up posting style and the info you post. That's why I knew you would not mind me coming straight at you.

Yeh, Aussie dollar is doing well and it looks like it's forming a flag on the 3 month 4 hour chart. I am looking to add to it.

Regards
Joseph

No problems Joseph---at least it seems we can be straight----shot straight---and remain focused.
Dont mind a challenge provided that challenge is constructive and doesnt resort to personal slangs---when it gets to that obviously the ammo has been expended!! (not implicating yourself here).

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

No problems Joseph---at least it seems we can be straight----shot straight---and remain focused.
Dont mind a challenge provided that challenge is constructive and doesnt resort to personal slangs---when it gets to that obviously the ammo has been expended!! (not implicating yourself here).

Tech,

Great post, totally agree with you.

That is a big thing, being able to be straight with each other, with out personal attacks being felt or made.

But in future I will tone down the ego in my replies.

Regards
Joseph

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well tonight my analysis tells me tomorrow is likely to see prices begin to retreat. I think today has made a near term high.

I'm still favoring 6400-6440 as the final target at this point for this important final culmination.

Seems to match up to Frankee's Market dynamics techniques.
I'm using Get (Wave analysis) and Tradeguider (Volume Spread Analysis) for signals and Manually for Possible wave projections.

 

[BBand]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Hi Tech,
I'm not into Elliot, I still cannot really make much sense of it - but I have not given up hope, I admire those traders who can use it to their advantage - one of these days hopefully it might "click" for me also.
Same with Franks Market Dynamics, its way beyond me - but again I have an open mind and am still persevereing.

Gee its hard for an old dog to learn new tricks.

Anyway, going back to the old school -----

I think there is a good chance that we may have seen the top for this move, at best the XJO may just meander sideways for a period of time

If we are of the opinion that it may infact fall, then using Fib retracement we have a couple of bands of confluence:

ie 6128/6119 and 6024/6029

Isn't it great to think that we have some sort of control over the market, however it does tend to give us a false sense of accomplishment - that nice cosy feeling that we think we know what should happen

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

BB,As you well know we have no control.
However we have tools which can be used to give us atleast a guide to where price is likely to go.
Often I dont agree with AGET's wave counts but for the XJO both the Daily and the Weekly are as I would label them so here are some charts for those interested.
You'll also note there is confluence at the 6680 ish level as well.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

So, wave 5 is finished Tech? May finish in May?

Does AGET, give you a ABC down? Or more?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Kennas.

According to get the XJO has reached its MOB target---(make or break).
That doesnt mean its over ---but if you were trading a type 1 buy trade then that trade would have been signalled over.

I have 2 possible areas for completion I like.

You'll also note there is confluence at the 6680 ish level as well.

And

 

[AndyMc]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I'm all new to this and was mucking around with XJO..

I did some system testing and made this chart back from 2nd March 2007 using Elliot Wave. As you can see it turned out nicely.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I'm all new to this and was mucking around with XJO..

I did some system testing and made this chart back from 2nd March 2007 using Elliot Wave. As you can see it turned out nicely.

Indeed, using Hubb’s “Profitsource” no less with the range projector switched on.

This illustrates the technique of using time extensions in concert with price extensions from pivots. This approach is a bulwark of many technical analysis approaches.

It is uncanny sometimes how the Fibonacci based projections from Profitsource (via the “range projector”) and Advanced GET’s MOB (Make or break) can do fairly well even for a mechanical based system.

But just be careful though, the algorithms for the type 1 & 2 buy/sell indicators for both packages are based on an underlying moving average and pivot system, hence they can get these very wrong unless you know how to use them effectively. The Elliott Wave systems on these often do not conform to many of the generally accepted Elliott rules, and are designed to give projections in specific situations. See the XAO analysis thread for more detailed comments on this made by wavepicker.

Incidentally wavepicker and I have been using Advanced GET for years, and are apprised of the pit falls of using this approach, and have both used GET essentially as a white board since the drawing tools are easy to use, and the MOB on occasion is a nice quick reference tool for general projections on the fly, but not for detailed accurate work for trade planning.

“Profitsource” was Hubb’s answer to GET, and incorporated much of the functionality that e-Signal was not willing to build for “Optionetics” – especially the “pre-computed” scans. The range projector added the concept of the “e-bot” to validate a trade which was an enhancement since some of GET’s projections used a concept called the “PTI” (Profit Taking Index) in a wave 4 trade.

Personally I don’t use this approach since I found it essentially hit and miss, probably due to some extent because the process is based on a formula and is essentially mechanical. But as mechanical systems go, I thought it worked OK for newbies and amateur intermediate players who don’t want to learn charting or concepts such as Elliott Wave theory in depth, and learn to count for themselves and interpret the charts in more detail.



Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Indeed, using Hubb’s “Profitsource” no less with the range projector switched on.

Errata:

Incidentally, re-reading the last paragraph could be interpreted as being pejorative towards people who choose to use the MOB/Range Projector type 1 & 2 Buy/Sell approach. This wasn’t my intention at all, but was a dead pan appraisal of what is involved in terms of time and effort required.

I see using this kind of mechanical approach as a perfectly valid choice if one prefers not to spend significant amounts of time learning detailed technical approaches and trailing and refining these (often for years). I fully recognise many people don’t want to do this, and would prefer to spend their time doing something else (some of us get a kick out of technical analysis and spend gargantuan amounts of time that is considered by many to be “unhealthy” hahaha – “guilty as charged your honour”).

Mag

 

[AndyMc]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Being as inexperienced as I am, system testing is part of my approach to learning.. I certainly wouldn't be trading based of a pre-scan and hope for the best.. I understand Elliott Wave's are an advanced analysis method and probably wont be learning about it for quite some time.. get the basics right first.

I'm only paper trading atm (I did buy a small amount of WMT just recently) until I refine my technique and knowledge.

Beating newbies down is a technique to increase forum stock? :

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Being as inexperienced as I am, system testing is part of my approach to learning.. I certainly wouldn't be trading based of a pre-scan and hope for the best.. I understand Elliott Wave's are an advanced analysis method and probably wont be learning about it for quite some time.. get the basics right first.

I'm only paper trading atm (I did buy a small amount of WMT just recently) until I refine my technique and knowledge.

Beating newbies down is a technique to increase forum stock? :

Hello Andy,


Welcome to ASF by the way!

Interestingly I note you put out a request recently for where to look for trading resources; you’ll find a diversity of approaches to technical analysis here, just look in the “Trading Strategies/Systems area, and maybe in the derivatives area if you are interested in looking at alternative instruments and index followers.

For discussions on texts try these threads:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3751

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4122

In your case, a lot depends on whether you feel more in tune with looking at charts and using technical analysis techniques or not. Have a look at the above threads, and you’ll note a few well versed technical players make some comments for you to consider.

There are a range of schools to choose from, and the way you develop will depend a lot on how you start. If you want my detailed view on this process, I have made a range of posts on the subject, and use the conceptual approach of teaching music as an analogy.

I firmly believe that future capacity is in part dependant on the early stages of development in order to allow the most fluid capacity to improvise and use the creative side of the mind. This is a controversial and polemical area, hence my suggestion is to fully read through the discussions, ask questions, and then proceed in the directions you feel most comfortable in.

As for “beating newbies down”, I did add the second post to clarify my first post… I recognised how you generated your chart, and thought I’d comment on it for the benefit of all the readers.

I suspect you may have recently gone through one of Hubb’s courses; hence the comments may be of benefit to you. Have fun reading through the various threads; there have been some really interesting discussions for aspiring traders over the last couple of years to draw from.


Best Regards


Magdoran
P.S. Actually I would suggest either getting Prechter and Frosts book on EW if you want to really learn this material, or at least read Nick Radge’s book “Adaptive Analysis” for a primer. – assuming you want to move to being a chartist of course. Also some of the texts I suggest in those links may be of interest too. Mag

 

[Kauri]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

My count varies a little from most (knowing myself as I do I am hardly surprised ). On my count 6134 needs to be taken out before I rule out a possible extended fractal of W5... the alt count would need the 5917 W1 high to be broken....
Regardless I have taken most of my trades off the table as I am in the last couple of weeks of selling my house and moving... so not enough time to devote to trading for the next 3 weeks or so... good luck to all..

Cheers
............Kauri.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Regardless I have taken most of my trades off the table as I am in the last couple of weeks of selling my house and moving... so not enough time to devote to trading for the next 3 weeks or so... good luck to all..

Cheers
............Kauri.

All the best for youre move Kauri

Cheers

 

[Lachlan6]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Last week looked a little ominous. (XJO) broke out of a rising wedge pattern. Profitsource charting has labelled the current wave as a wave three count, however I would think this is more like a wave 5. Will need to break 6134 for the current uptrend to be technically finished (higher highs/lows), so still looks ok from that perspective.

There are worrying aspects to the chart however. Not only has it broken through the short term uptrend support, but the RSI is displaying some big negative divergence with price, which I find to be generally a good indicator. It does not indicate when however, it just shows that the current move up is weakening. I have possible retracement levels at a best case scenario of 6100, however if it falls a lttle more, lower targets at 6013 and I seriously doubt a fall back to around the 200 day EMA currently at 5720.

 

[reece55]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Last week looked a little ominous. (XJO) broke out of a rising wedge pattern. Profitsource charting has labelled the current wave as a wave three count, however I would think this is more like a wave 5. Will need to break 6134 for the current uptrend to be technically finished (higher highs/lows), so still looks ok from that perspective.

There are worrying aspects to the chart however. Not only has it broken through the short term uptrend support, but the RSI is displaying some big negative divergence with price, which I find to be generally a good indicator. It does not indicate when however, it just shows that the current move up is weakening. I have possible retracement levels at a best case scenario of 6100, however if it falls a lttle more, lower targets at 6013 and I seriously doubt a fall back to around the 200 day EMA currently at 5720.

Lachlan, this is true -XJO is looking ominous....... The divergence on the chart has been there for a while and the break out of the broadening wedge pattern clearly occurred on Friday ...... The only moderately bullish element was the buying that happened late in day......

The comments from Bernake in the US highlighting the clear bubble market in China seem to hit world markets fairly hard..... I think we will see a move back to support @ about 6,100, but I don't dismiss a move in mid/late June to break that high established on our Rio Tinto madness day.....

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

The XAO has moved ahead of the XJO... by about 20 points odd. Not much in itself but quite rare?? Would this suggest that the XAO is being driven by the dangerous smaller spec end of town with all the risk inherent with that, with perhaps a move back to the more solid XJO due... or possibly that the bigger end of town is already quietly moving out.... or even that that last glass of Bushmills was one too many???

 

[reece55]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

or possibly that the bigger end of town is already quietly moving out....

Interesting you say that Kauri, the Packers have reportedly undertaken a complete reshuffle of their stock portfolios, which included the disposal of a large stake in MBL...... There are a lot of people holding speculative stocks, specifically mining stocks that will end up being the ghost company's after this boom, and I think this is causing the disparity between XAO and XJO...... Being an accountant working for these small mining companies, all I can say is the money is all to easy to raise at the moment........

Another interesting article I note is this one on MBL:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chanos-highlights-macquarie-short-trade/story.aspx?guid=%7BB6B00508-B5AF-42CC-9F8D-5C1B43A9038C%7D

Jim Chanos, the man that successfully predicted the demise of Enron, says that MBL is a dead set short selling op....... I thought that at about 82.00 however, and it got all the way to 96.......

Personally, I am cautious of placing longs ATM. My wave analysis on WOW (a key component of the index) shows dark clouds and BHP is stuck in a range...... All in all, I would be cautious this week......

Cheers