XAO Technical Analysis

[Greynomad99]

Here's a bit of 'What If" for the Wyckoff fans. What if price of the XAO bounces from its present level back up into the rectangle on the chart below. What if it then fell back a little and retested the lower boundary of the rectangle and then moved up again. To me that looks like a Wyckoff pattern which should then be saying that generally higher weekly peaks and troughs were likely for a time. Until the pattern shows its last level of support before breaking up out of the pattern, a target can't be calculated. However, if we assume prices rally strongly in that latter phase of the pattern and LLS is around 7700 then a target of around 9000 could be on the cards. Just an interesting theory.

PS: US S&P is down again and while our futures are bright green - I'm not sure I believe them. A market on the slide, Putin saddling up in the Baltic, and a Friday here - I suspect a few more traders are going to want to minimise their exposure over the weekend and any rally on the open will fade away. On a positive note, the shape of the US charts suggest the slide is slowing.

 

[qldfrog]

S&P500 last night


I expect the same today on asx..not looking good IMHO.
And as pointed out: tonight is the week end for us..who want to hold??

 

[InsvestoBoy]

who want to hold??

The recent move down has pushed my equity allocation a bit underweight from where it should be (25%) so I'll be bidding today, just as I was offering highs of 2021 and bidding lows in March 2020.

 

[qldfrog]

The recent move down has pushed my equity allocation a bit underweight from where it should be (25%) so I'll be bidding today, just as I was offering highs of 2021 and bidding lows in March 2020.

Am still waiting an extra 10pc fall before jumping on the temporary bounce..time will tell.i always found the au market overly optimistic..the problem with a country which has not known real pain for too long ..generations actually...
Time will tell

 

[Sean K]

Am still waiting an extra 10pc fall before jumping on the temporary bounce..time will tell.i always found the au market overly optimistic..the problem with a country which has not known real pain for too long ..generations actually...
Time will tell

When do you reckon it was hardest post WW2 that Gen X and Y do not know? I was born in 69 so remember the late 70s and 80s interest rates and my parents paying over 15% on the home loan. Most of Dad's pay went into paying off the interest.

 

[qldfrog]

When do you reckon it was hardest post WW2 that Gen X and Y do not know? I was born in 69 so remember the late 70s and 80s interest rates and my parents paying over 15% on the home loan. Most of Dad's pay went into paying off the interest.

Yes 80s high rates, no work with unemployment above 10pc, no cheap made in china stuff.10y old cheaper second hand car at 5k..so more or less 10k nowadays..high taxation and food was white bread and Coon cheddar..
I push a but but..oh ..and house prise going nowhere for 10y..so paying back HL at 15% for no gain...

 

[Sean K]

Interesting dead cat from the bounce off 7200ish / half way of the channel range support. The cat looks like it has some life at the moment. Hitting the old support line, now resistance, which will coincide with meeting the 200 and 50dma shortly.

 

[qldfrog]

I looked at the US SPY etf last night and definitively could not break its new ceiling/(was ex support ) level so nothing positive for xao from there, so the bulls here will be surprised tomorrow...why they say why...

 

[Sean K]

Last week the XAO broke through the old support around 7500 ish which then became resistance, which it broke through, and then tested the now support at 7500 ish twice and held above. Now sitting on that line again. Not holding above this, and breaking down, you'd think it's back to the lower support line again. Fingers crossed she holds up. If Russia invades Ukraine on Wednesday, it's probably a downside bias.

 

[qldfrog]

it is all good: market will become euphoric when Russia does not "invade" Ukraine tomorrow;
I sometimes wonder what is the IQ of people in newsagencies and worse investment funds who still listen to what the Alzheimer in charge is supposedly publishing?
Question for you @Sean K : "Fingers crossed she holds up."
Why should you or anyone wish that more than the opposite: a fall ?Should markets be a one way street ?
Should you not celebrate a fall as an opportunity to sort the values and get good bargain?
When I see PE between 25 and 50ish , I see no cause for celebration, more an absence of value in both shares and the fiat currencies we hold .
Anyway, neither of us will change whatever happens so let's go with the flow

 

[Sean K]

it is all good: market will become euphoric when Russia does not "invade" Ukraine tomorrow;
I sometimes wonder what is the IQ of people in newsagencies and worse investment funds who still listen to what the Alzheimer in charge is supposedly publishing?
Question for you @Sean K : "Fingers crossed she holds up."
Why should you or anyone wish that more than the opposite: a fall ?Should markets be a one way street ?
Should you not celebrate a fall as an opportunity to sort the values and get good bargain?
When I see PE between 25 and 50ish , I see no cause for celebration, more an absence of value in both shares and the fiat currencies we hold .
Anyway, neither of us will change whatever happens so let's go with the flow

Fingers crossed for those fully invested and don't have the ability to go short. I've got a bit of cash waiting for a decent home.

 

[stanwell]

I don't have XAO data so use XJO instead.

Can't see the market go much lower. To me, it's puff and bluff by the Yanks to scare people and chase money to the US.

 

[divs4ever]

Fingers crossed for those fully invested and don't have the ability to go short. I've got a bit of cash waiting for a decent home.

have been using some of that cash recently , but the AST take-over is almost complete , the API take-over is starting to go through the process , while the WSA and ZEL take-overs seem to be more speculation , than cash on the table

finding those decent homes is HARD

good luck

one commodity rarely mentioned in this Ukraine-Russia thing is aluminum , although i thought Russia shipped some uranium as well

there MIGHT be some interesting moments in the commodities area

 

[Sean K]

I don't have XAO data so use XJO instead.

Can't see the market go much lower. To me, it's puff and bluff by the Yanks to scare people and chase money to the US.

View attachment 137588

XAO and XJO don't look too horribly different. Similar short term S&R lines and long term trend. Price earnings ratios of a lot of US stocks are still way over historical mean. If the US sneezes we catch a cough.

 

[divs4ever]

I don't have XAO data so use XJO instead.

Can't see the market go much lower. To me, it's puff and bluff by the Yanks to scare people and chase money to the US.

View attachment 137588

yes , i can see your logic , there , but it might not be the whole picture

for example would China step in to calm tensions if Russia looked to go full nuclear holocaust ( they have lots of foreign assets that might get nuked )

 

[stanwell]

yes , i can see your logic , there , but it might not be the whole picture

for example would China step in to calm tensions if Russia looked to go full nuclear holocaust ( they have lots of foreign assets that might get nuked )

China won't step in as this is about Russian's security, no compromise. China can do nothing about it.

I think the best solution is Europe step in to defuse the situation. If the war did break out, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and China are all losers. Only beneficiary is US. This is why they jump up and down to add fuel to the fire.

 

[qldfrog]

China won't step in as this is about Russian's security, no compromise. China can do nothing about it.

I think the best solution is Europe step in to defuse the situation. If the war did break out, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and China are all losers. Only beneficiary is US. This is why they jump up and down to add fuel to the fire.

Yes only one winner, the one who has already told us that everything is fake news but their war starting on the 16th..
I highly recommend people read the George Friedman https://www.booktopia.com.au/the-ne...Agk8am4vsLcYTffYEYIHFRM3q14H2p_0aAvkVEALw_wcB
This is textbook application of US game about Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania and the move to initially reinforce/ally with Poland vs EU
Maximum damages to all the listed there and keep superpower.
One item you mentioned @Sean K "Price earnings ratios of a lot of US stocks are still way over historical mean." is interesting
It is true:

and XAO P/E is around 18? (was hard to find recent dataf)
but as we are mostly miner and banks, I am not sure we are not as overvalued as the US
Both Mining and Banks should have much lower PE than industrial or tech industries: one is eating its assets, the second is leveraging it to the hilt
Will be interesting to see if Biden will be able to achieve his target..in a way, a crash blamed on Russia could be a saving grace for his next election.So my bet is on an ongoing engineered crash..not much is needed anyway

 

[divs4ever]

i can't see how the US wins , it is already a debt pig , much infrastructure is old and needs repair , and the wrong ( skilled ) part of the workforce is not particularly friendly to the government ( things like taxes , regulations , inflation that is hurting THEM )

Putin seems to think everybody loses ( although parts of the EU surely can't get much worse ..unless turned into radioactive wasteland )

Russia is a HUGE land mass so pockets of civilization would survive , so am guessing Putin sees no win from an armed conflict for Russia

now China will probably suffer but they have been ravaged by war many times before , so might still be the winner of a very sorry bunch ( life wasn't so pretty during and after WW2 so have recent experience )

the wild card might be India who MIGHT be clever enough to stay in the spectator seats

 

[Sean K]

I highly recommend people read the George Friedman https://www.booktopia.com.au/the-ne...Agk8am4vsLcYTffYEYIHFRM3q14H2p_0aAvkVEALw_wcB
This is textbook application of US game about Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania and the move to initially reinforce/ally with Poland vs EU
Maximum damages to all the listed there and keep superpower.

X2. I read that when it came out, twice. It's gold. I can see China breaking up, but not sure about the war between Mexico and the US.

 

[qldfrog]

X2. I read that when it came out, twice. It's gold. I can see China breaking up, but not sure about the war between Mexico and the US.

the mistake is to do a mexico = gangland..
if (it is a big IF) the states reassess control, it will becomes a powerhouse ..and the US is turning hispanic anyway.no need for war
Back to subject..i think Biden will push to a hot war