XAO Technical Analysis

[divs4ever]

So just to go a bit above the ABC/news very limited investigative brainpower:

Sanctions on Russia? Have been non stop for quite a few years now especially EU which enabled them to build an economy to replace many european products..and they are now exporting camember and champagne to china replacing French products there ...LOL.
If the west is serious and stop importing Russian minerals.and energy..then these will go straight to China. Discounted maybe..as China likes a bargain
but guess which country in the west is the loser? Uk? Germany ?..nooooo
The good Aussie kangaroo which will then try to redirect its unrequired export to China toward Europe.
good luck. . To compete with africa and south america
Noted the mention of crypto.. good so the official reason to make BTC illegal will be to beat the bad commies....?
Sure,can we get a 4th booster with that?and a lollipop.

i think China would settle for a stable but fair price ( after all it WON'T be settled in US dollars ) and i think Russia would be content with that also .. and don't forget if Russia gets booted too far into the weeds .. well there is North Korea without many friends or suppliers they won't be able to buy much but they will be eager

but heck , Australia had plenty of time to diversify who it sold to , we did this to ourselves ( mostly )

 

[stanwell]

 

[Greynomad99]

With the US market plumbing new depths last night and the Nasdaq getting close to a bear market - it looks as if things here may also get worse before they get better.

 

[eskys]

With the US market plumbing new depths last night and the Nasdaq getting close to a bear market - it looks as if things here may also get worse before they get better.

You're probably right, Greynomad. VIX is up. It's a traders' market as I see it. If we can identify the stocks and sectors that have taken a turn for the better, there's money to be made. But in this age of uncertainly and volatility, we better be quick to react to changing tide

 

[Cam019]

Who thinks this turn around in the XAO will be short lived with another pullback at around the 7833 level, which it's been bouncing off since July last year?

View attachment 139390

Thought I'd respond to MA's post here. I'm with @Ann on this one - I actually see the XAO going higher.

Weekly demand zone shown below has now been mitigated and was not broken through.

Price came in and tested the daily demand zone twice and that zone has held. Price has now broken structure on the daily and created a new demand zone which more likely than not will be tested before price continues higher.

 

[Stockbailx]

Were will it end up after the budget and elections? Head for the hills...I see it breaking the 7,900 mark?

 

[Sean K]

Triple top, or breaking through to ATHs?

 

[Greynomad99]

Going higher in my view - around 8,500 to meet an overhead line of best fit up the weekly peaks going back to mid-2015 (perhaps 2010, depending on how that line is drawn). Nothing says it 'has' to do this, but it would maintain the pattern of the chart if nothing else. As a loosely related comment, there's an interesting article in the Business section of today's age about China's struggle with Covid. It reads something like a dystopian end of civilisation novel. China will get through it but I expect it to have its economy damaged in the process - and as a result ours might be in trouble as well. Might be worthwhile being more careful about China dependent stocks for a while?

 

[Sean K]

Triple top, or breaking through to ATHs?

View attachment 140593

Maybe a triple top... Should be some support around the moving averages and then 7500 ish. Maybe.

 

[Cam019]

Thought I'd respond to MA's post here. I'm with @Ann on this one - I actually see the XAO going higher.

Weekly demand zone shown below has now been mitigated and was not broken through.

Price came in and tested the daily demand zone twice and that zone has held. Price has now broken structure on the daily and created a new demand zone which more likely than not will be tested before price continues higher.

 

[Sean K]

I think we'll end up in the first level of 'daily demand' today and through the horizontal support zone. Maybe there will be some buying at those levels. Iron Ore up slightly which might hold up BHP which will support the XAO. It's going to be a dramatic start...

 

[Sean K]

Today has gone as expected, so far, with some buying at the low point, still above that support line, but, it's tenuous.

 

[Knobby22]

Its feeling like a correction to me. Another 10% drop maybe.

 

[greggles]

Its feeling like a correction to me. Another 10% drop maybe.

Looks to be support at around 7,250. If it plunges through there, things could get ugly. The "sell in May and go away" factor is about to kick in so there could be a bias to the downside until after the end of the current financial year.

 

[divs4ever]

will the Fed concede to the Taper Tantrum ?

IF it follows the path it has laid out already .. this could get messy , especially in the Government keeps pumping cash into the war machine ( OOPS ! i meant Ukraine )

 

[KevinBB]

The "sell in May and go away" factor is about to kick in so there could be a bias to the downside until after the end of the current financial year.

I don't have stats for XAO, but I do have for the very similar XJO.

The sell in May and go away factor obviously doesn't apply to XJO in May. It might apply to other months, but not May. Look at the stats:

• All four of the immediate past Mays have been up months.
• Six of the past eight Mays have been up months.

Sure, before then there were some bad times, but as I've pointed out in another thread, that's ancient history. I'm happy to be still holding IOZ during May. It might go down, but there is every chance it won't.

KH

 

[greggles]

I don't have stats for XAO, but I do have for the very similar XJO.

The sell in May and go away factor obviously doesn't apply to XJO in May. It might apply to other months, but not May. Look at the stats:

• All four of the immediate past Mays have been up months.
• Six of the past eight Mays have been up months.

Sure, before then there were some bad times, but as I've pointed out in another thread, that's ancient history. I'm happy to be still holding IOZ during May. It might go down, but there is every chance it won't.

KH

My understanding of "Sell in May and go away" is it refers to tax loss selling that usually begins in May and goes until the end of the financial year. So it is May and June combined, not just May. Although I cannot say for sure whether it applies to indexes or just stocks that have under-performed and are likely to be sold at a loss before the end of the financial year.

It could also be a complete myth.

 

[KevinBB]

The original "Sell in May and go away" was from ancient times in the northern hemisphere, when holders would sell / reduce their stocks, go away for the summer holidays without a care in the world, and then come back on (according to many references) St Ledger's Day. So the traders would get their summer off on holidays, enjoy the autumn horse race, and then come back for a winter / spring of trading stocks.

Nothing to do with Aussie stocks.

For Australia, the reason that May can be a decent month is that everyone is stocking up on their bank shares, so that they meet the 45 day rule for all these juicy dividends and their attached franking credits that will be announced on Wednesday (ANZ), Thursday (NAB) and next Monday (WBC).

KH

 

[Sean K]

Looks to be support at around 7,250. If it plunges through there, things could get ugly. The "sell in May and go away" factor is about to kick in so there could be a bias to the downside until after the end of the current financial year.

If 7500 ish breaks then yes, 7200 ish is the next point. Still some way to go to meet the lower edge of this 10 year channel. We have spent the majority of the time in the upper half of that channel though, so any plunge would likely be short lived and represent an excellent buying opportunity. If you add up the time above and below the median, it's odds on we're more likely to stay in the top half, above 7200 ish.

 

[Greynomad99]

After a good strong recovery yesterday I was hopeful we might see a continuation of higher prices - but again the US has had another breath-taking fall overnight. The XAO's candle yesterday closed at its highs and seemed to also suggested higher prices today. Unless the ASX totally disregards the US trading (unlikely) we'll probably see 7,500 and a close below that level (which is long-term support) could suggest 7,300 is possible. With the XAO in a technical uptrend and sitting above both that trendline and at the lower boundary of a price channel that has been tracking price for 4 months my best guess is we will see the wheels fall off on open but hopefully recover as the day progresses. But then it is Friday - which often turns to custard!
Good luck.
PS: My price channel placement is subjective and could be angled down a little (which would also cater for today's probable pullback).