XAO Technical Analysis

[tech/a]

Prematurely as it works out.

 

[qldfrog]

Just forgot key fact: Australia day tomorrow so who wants to hold overnight when overnight is 2 trading days on NYSE.i may be wrong with the mini bounce today

 

[Greynomad99]

So much for the US being in positive territory overnight. I've started selling (so market will rally later today no doubt!)

 

[Sean K]

It's panic stations. Gone to that 7200 support regions quicker than expected.

 

[Gunnerguy]

ASX200 bounce off 6920 ...... ..... Any dead cats around ..... and then down to 6640 ...
I wouldn't want to be loaded up with the market closed tomorrow.
As someone said somewhere ... 2 days of NYSE trading while we're closed....

 

[qldfrog]

Which mean we might go a bit too low today short term .issue is when do i buy my put now..sold these on the slope down

 

[divs4ever]

am trying to buy selected stocks at 'fair prices ' sadly with limited success so far

take care

( i NEED my cash working , when i can sensibly park it , do what is right for YOU )

 

[tech/a]

Wow this is beyond anything I thought
The only good thing is I’m out of everything other than Super but out of a great short which should still be going
Ah the cost of diminishing risk ( was in a meeting for a few hrs this morning )
anyone short ?

too late for Dax and US I think

 

[Sean K]

Wow this is beyond anything I thought
The only good thing is I’m out of everything other than Super but out of a great short which should still be going
Ah the cost of diminishing risk ( was in a meeting for a few hrs this morning )
anyone short ?

too late for Dax and US I think

Bought BBOZ a couple of days ago, that's it.

 

[Greynomad99]

Are we having fun yet? NO!
Pretty much closed all my trades today on basis I can always buy back and market has shown no sign of stopping its fall into the abyss. A holiday tomorrow might allow one of two things to happen, (a) the lemmings have time to panic and run for the door on Thursday (this lemming has already flown the coop), or (b) see opportunities in lower prices and start buying. If the US market has another sell off tonight and (God forbid) tomorrow, Thursday could be a day for the asbestos lined cricketing protection equipment.

 

[qldfrog]

Wow this is beyond anything I thought
The only good thing is I’m out of everything other than Super but out of a great short which should still be going
Ah the cost of diminishing risk ( was in a meeting for a few hrs this morning )
anyone short ?

too late for Dax and US I think

I sold a few put around lunchtime, amazing % returns..but was under the false impression I would be able to buy them back cheaper this afternoon..hum.seems like I was wrong, clock is ticking and i might end up exposed...

 

[qldfrog]

got BBUS(+4% today) last week but I should have gone bboz +6%....

 

[divs4ever]

Are we having fun yet? NO!
Pretty much closed all my trades today on basis I can always buy back and market has shown no sign of stopping its fall into the abyss. A holiday tomorrow might allow one of two things to happen, (a) the lemmings have time to panic and run for the door on Thursday (this lemming has already flown the coop), or (b) see opportunities in lower prices and start buying. If the US market has another sell off tonight and (God forbid) tomorrow, Thursday could be a day for the asbestos lined cricketing protection equipment.

a little bit

i added extra AIS , MND , and MGX today ( with the after market auction still to come )

thanks to a reminder about the monthly tipping comp. i am claiming a win ( by MY reckoning ) i grabbed a useful number of MGX cheap ( and that is all i try to do in the monthly comps. )

good luck everyone else .. but i have got my prize this month

i still have some cash AND courage .. and two more trading days to go this week

 

[Sean K]

Some significant technical damage done to individual stocks the past three days, especially in speccie miners. Back to the drawing board for quite a few of them unless there's a remarkable bounce in the US over the next two nights and the ASX cat bounces considerably on Thursday.

 

[SyBoo]

The XAO MA(50) is getting very close to the MA(200), they call that crossing the "Dead Cross" don't they.
Also looks like the MA(200) has rolled over.
(Just some lagging TA thoughts.)

 

[Greynomad99]

I try to avoid the Chicken Little (The Sky is Falling) predictions because nobody really knows what is going to happen to the market over the immediate future. However, here's my take on possible scenarios.

You may have read the attached article in today’s Age – but it reflects my sentiments exactly.

Have sold all shares (bar Beach Energy because it slumped the other day and oil prices are rising). Bought BBOZ which is a geared ETF that work inversely to the ASX – if the market falls 2% it rises 3%.

First time I’ve ever run for the door.

The XAO has fallen to break out of its long-standing channel (dark green) and close below that channels lower boundary for 2 consecutive weeks – a sell signal, It has made a lower low so far this week – another sell warning (although a lower peak would be needed to confirm that). It’s fallen out of the sideways flag pattern (another sell) – and the market is at an all-time high. Price has fallen to a support level and hence this might stop the rot. If not expect 6800 – 7000 followed by 6000 – 6500 etc etc

Previous falls in the ASX have been about 10% - 12% (a technical correction) and a small further fall today would see us off 10%.

The pessimistic prediction is a line of support currently around 6400 which is coincidentally 21% off the recent high which is where it becomes a bear market. Apart from the GFC and Covid March 2020 falls, 20% is about where falls usually stop.

So take your pick as nothing in charting will tell you where the bottom is to this market. It could rally due to bargain hunters and perhaps the sum will come out and all will be sweetness and happiness. Given the ‘perfect storm’ the attached article talks about fits with my view of the world, if I had to bet on it – I’d see a bear market as the most likely outcome. I hope I’m wrong.

Just remember – you can always buy back.

 

[Sean K]

I try to avoid the Chicken Little (The Sky is Falling) predictions because nobody really knows what is going to happen to the market over the immediate future. However, here's my take on possible scenarios.

You may have read the attached article in today’s Age – but it reflects my sentiments exactly.

Have sold all shares (bar Beach Energy because it slumped the other day and oil prices are rising). Bought BBOZ which is a geared ETF that work inversely to the ASX – if the market falls 2% it rises 3%.

First time I’ve ever run for the door.

The XAO has fallen to break out of its long-standing channel (dark green) and close below that channels lower boundary for 2 consecutive weeks – a sell signal, It has made a lower low so far this week – another sell warning (although a lower peak would be needed to confirm that). It’s fallen out of the sideways flag pattern (another sell) – and the market is at an all-time high. Price has fallen to a support level and hence this might stop the rot. If not expect 6800 – 7000 followed by 6000 – 6500 etc etc

Previous falls in the ASX have been about 10% - 12% (a technical correction) and a small further fall today would see us off 10%.

The pessimistic prediction is a line of support currently around 6400 which is coincidentally 21% off the recent high which is where it becomes a bear market. Apart from the GFC and Covid March 2020 falls, 20% is about where falls usually stop.

So take your pick as nothing in charting will tell you where the bottom is to this market. It could rally due to bargain hunters and perhaps the sum will come out and all will be sweetness and happiness. Given the ‘perfect storm’ the attached article talks about fits with my view of the world, if I had to bet on it – I’d see a bear market as the most likely outcome. I hope I’m wrong.

Just remember – you can always buy back.

View attachment 136603

No Chicken Little, it's been obvious. Your support line matches the bottom of the 10 year channel I've been pasting up for months. We've been bumping up against the top of that channel for the past six months.

 

[Greynomad99]

No Chicken Little, it's been obvious. Your support line matches the bottom of the 10 year channel I've been pasting up for months. We've been bumping up against the top of that channel for the past six months.

Agreed, but the problem has been you can't predict when it is going to fall off its perch - you just know it will at some point (and when it falls off said perch will it fall to the ground or recover just to do it all again?). Prices have recovered this morning but we'll just need to see what happens over the next week or two. A good fall would certainly clear the air and set up a buying opportunity.

 

[divs4ever]

am not so much worried about the sky falling as the ground beneath my feet ( will it disappear , turn into quicksand , or maybe there is a gold nugget next to me )

Just remember – you can always buy back.

i DO prefer to buy back cheaper ( on the rare occasion i do it ) but my record for that is not inspiring ( sometimes the price keeps going up and up )

 

[Sean K]

Agreed, but the problem has been you can't predict when it is going to fall off its perch - you just know it will at some point (and when it falls off said perch will it fall to the ground or recover just to do it all again?). Prices have recovered this morning but we'll just need to see what happens over the next week or two. A good fall would certainly clear the air and set up a buying opportunity.

Dead cat off 7200 ish, perhaps. With the VIX going nuts I'm not sure how respectful the XAO will be to basic TA S&R lines, but on the way back up you'd expect a lot of selling at the previous support around 7500 ish. Still in the top half of the 10 year upward trend. Hopefully just some sideways action between 7200-7500 for some consolidation and blood pressure relief.