Rypieee
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Hi SkyQuake,
Could you elaborate on your comment on NST regarding "Flow Related"?
Assuming it is F/A related?
Ryan
Ryan's Trading Journal (F/A+T/A Strategy)
- Thread starter Rypieee
- Start date
Could you elaborate on your comment on NST regarding "Flow Related"?
Assuming it is F/A related?
Ryan
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Nah, flows = weight of money.
GDXJ is making some changes to its methodology to accommodate large cap stocks.
Announced early April.
NST EVN OGC have been the beneficiaries while the small cap golds have been slammed. Looking for reversion coming up...
skc
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I think it's started already. Look at RSG's strength today. GDX/GDXJ is becoming a bit of a joke where you have to front run the front runners, and flip may be two days before the actual rebalance against the direction of the rebalance itself.
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@skyQuake Thanks for the info.
I've been wondering about the strange movements in some gold stocks. I've a short term trade in SBM that has gone nowhere even though the POG has risen $30/oz. It's always been a tricky sector for me and I'll stick to trading the POG directly.
Sorry for the golden diversion in your thread Ryan.
I've been wondering about the strange movements in some gold stocks. I've a short term trade in SBM that has gone nowhere even though the POG has risen $30/oz. It's always been a tricky sector for me and I'll stick to trading the POG directly.
Sorry for the golden diversion in your thread Ryan.
Rypieee
Newbie Keen Beans
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Don't be! I am also learning something from all this!
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I also heard about this but wasn't sure which stocks are affected as I have not looked at the constituents of the index GDXJ (J is the junior Index). When huge global funds move their funds around due to re-balances etc the companies that are in that index can change prices by a lot. But I think they will do it gradually either buying up slowly or selling down slowly to avoid market shock. I'll be watching...
Rypieee
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Today is an example of how we let a stock go and the stock running off up higher!
CSL was sold at $132 and today we saw a big bounce by them! I am still confident with my decision to let CSL go in order to give room to newer opportunities and will definitely not be letting this movement by CSL put me off or doubt the system
Some stocks are started to show signs of weakness - namely IRI and CGC and I shall be watching them closely over the next few days. I may consider selling them before they hit their stop loss as the price actions have suggested weakness in order to prevent further losses**.
There is 3 opportunities that have popped up on my scans tonight which I have great interest in, pretty bummed out that I'm always out of capital but that is how a med to longer term timeframe works
Skyquake's comment on the GDXJ has sparked an interest in a small gold miner and I shall follow this over the coming days to find an entry point. This would increase my portfolio's exposure towards the short/hedging side but as the risk around the world continues to escalate, I have conviction in my decision to be flexible and adaptable with my portfolio.
CSL was sold at $132 and today we saw a big bounce by them! I am still confident with my decision to let CSL go in order to give room to newer opportunities and will definitely not be letting this movement by CSL put me off or doubt the system
Some stocks are started to show signs of weakness - namely IRI and CGC and I shall be watching them closely over the next few days. I may consider selling them before they hit their stop loss as the price actions have suggested weakness in order to prevent further losses**.
There is 3 opportunities that have popped up on my scans tonight which I have great interest in, pretty bummed out that I'm always out of capital but that is how a med to longer term timeframe works
Skyquake's comment on the GDXJ has sparked an interest in a small gold miner and I shall follow this over the coming days to find an entry point. This would increase my portfolio's exposure towards the short/hedging side but as the risk around the world continues to escalate, I have conviction in my decision to be flexible and adaptable with my portfolio.
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Agree with looking for ways to look for hedging short side of the market as well. Because with market pull backs a portfolio can take a fair hit. But with hedging instruments it can minimise that and with any luck those positions should increase in value during those times.
I've also been researching for instruments (Stocks, ETFs etc) that should increase in value or provide hedging during market drops without directly shorting stocks which is very risky. Came across
ANTIPODES GLOBAL INV FPO (APL) which takes long and short positions in stocks to look for portfolio gains, so added it to the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio.
I've also been researching for instruments (Stocks, ETFs etc) that should increase in value or provide hedging during market drops without directly shorting stocks which is very risky. Came across
ANTIPODES GLOBAL INV FPO (APL) which takes long and short positions in stocks to look for portfolio gains, so added it to the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio.
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hey aus-trader
you dont have to look far to find a way for hedging short side of the market,
you can go short (or long) the market to the value of around $150,000
worth of stock for less than $10.00 commision, all instantaniously at
the click of button.
you dont have to look far to find a way for hedging short side of the market,
you can go short (or long) the market to the value of around $150,000
worth of stock for less than $10.00 commision, all instantaniously at
the click of button.
Rypieee
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Hope you are all having a great week!
EOW 05
Portfolio performance up to date (Starting 1st of March 2017) = 6.16%
Market performance (ASX200) up to date from 1st March 2017 = -0.47%
This week sells: CSL
This week buys: NST, CGC
Overall portfolio doing well! As per my previous post, we are watching IRI and CGC closely to see if further price weakness develops, CGC had a small rebound today but IRI continues to display aimless direction and lack of strength. This week we also saw two political events happening - UK general elections which has put some pressure on the pound and the investigation of Comey. While we will not know the outcome of those just yet, we are prepared with a % of the portfolio on the short side to mitigate any downturn. A stock that we got rid of about 2 weeks ago - SSM - have had a plunge today of about 8% mid-day before recovering to be down 6.5% for the day. I suspect this has something to do with an oversupply on the market and am wiping my forehead on that decision. I made the SSM decision with a recommendation made by someone else but am thankful none the less. I realised that if possible, I should also be aware of supply and demand on a stock through the order flow.
I am considering to include a plan to scale into well performing trades such as ALL, WTC, CTD and FPH. I shall think of how I would like to approach scaling into a position if it continues to give further entry signals. This would mean that my portfolio will and could become VERY concentrated and it can be a double edge sword. More on this later!
I am also considering to start looking into the resource sector again for a variety of reasons such as "expectation" of lower AUD/USD, China's recent inflation data and their plans to build the silk road which could start off the second commodities boom & our quality miners who have reduced their cost bases and operating cost down over the past few years of lower commodity prices. Should those three factors mentioned above do come into play, margins for producers would be through the roof and mining stocks will get re-rated. Of course this will come attached with risk - the first one being with the Chinese government ability to change their mind at any moment without warning... the second one being that the US does not raise rates as quickly as they initially planned to, closing the gap between the interest rate parity "premium" that Australia currently holds [we want the gap to be as wide as possible to result in a lower AUD in comparison to the US]. Shall think over this on the weekend and maybe come to a conclusion
Asides from that, I am very happy with the portfolio as it is, and while I have all my capital tied up in those funds, I will still be on the look out of the next best idea.
This week has also been EXTRAORDINARY for myself as I had a causal meeting with a fund management company who then halfway through the meeting, offered me a role with the firm as a junior Australian equities analyst. I will be leaving my role with my current financial planning firm to take this up as an opportunity like this do not come by often! This new role will give me the skills and knowledge to improve on my fundamental analysis and I cannot wait to see what is in store for me!
Have a great weekend all! Until next time!
Ryan
EOW 05
Portfolio performance up to date (Starting 1st of March 2017) = 6.16%
Market performance (ASX200) up to date from 1st March 2017 = -0.47%
This week sells: CSL
This week buys: NST, CGC
Overall portfolio doing well! As per my previous post, we are watching IRI and CGC closely to see if further price weakness develops, CGC had a small rebound today but IRI continues to display aimless direction and lack of strength. This week we also saw two political events happening - UK general elections which has put some pressure on the pound and the investigation of Comey. While we will not know the outcome of those just yet, we are prepared with a % of the portfolio on the short side to mitigate any downturn. A stock that we got rid of about 2 weeks ago - SSM - have had a plunge today of about 8% mid-day before recovering to be down 6.5% for the day. I suspect this has something to do with an oversupply on the market and am wiping my forehead on that decision. I made the SSM decision with a recommendation made by someone else but am thankful none the less. I realised that if possible, I should also be aware of supply and demand on a stock through the order flow.
I am considering to include a plan to scale into well performing trades such as ALL, WTC, CTD and FPH. I shall think of how I would like to approach scaling into a position if it continues to give further entry signals. This would mean that my portfolio will and could become VERY concentrated and it can be a double edge sword. More on this later!
I am also considering to start looking into the resource sector again for a variety of reasons such as "expectation" of lower AUD/USD, China's recent inflation data and their plans to build the silk road which could start off the second commodities boom & our quality miners who have reduced their cost bases and operating cost down over the past few years of lower commodity prices. Should those three factors mentioned above do come into play, margins for producers would be through the roof and mining stocks will get re-rated. Of course this will come attached with risk - the first one being with the Chinese government ability to change their mind at any moment without warning... the second one being that the US does not raise rates as quickly as they initially planned to, closing the gap between the interest rate parity "premium" that Australia currently holds [we want the gap to be as wide as possible to result in a lower AUD in comparison to the US]. Shall think over this on the weekend and maybe come to a conclusion
Asides from that, I am very happy with the portfolio as it is, and while I have all my capital tied up in those funds, I will still be on the look out of the next best idea.
This week has also been EXTRAORDINARY for myself as I had a causal meeting with a fund management company who then halfway through the meeting, offered me a role with the firm as a junior Australian equities analyst. I will be leaving my role with my current financial planning firm to take this up as an opportunity like this do not come by often! This new role will give me the skills and knowledge to improve on my fundamental analysis and I cannot wait to see what is in store for me!
Have a great weekend all! Until next time!
Ryan
skc
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Nice one. Best of luck with the new challenges.
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Wish you all the best Ryan. Very happy for you. Keep us posted as to how you go...
Rypieee
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So I have done my scans today since it is a long weekend and I wanted to enjoy my Saturday and Sunday celebrating with my friends and family on my new job
This week, as our portfolio has no available cash, we can do the following:
1) Sell weak stocks (IRI I'm watching you closely) to make cash available for new opportunities
2) Scan the market as per usual but just create a fake portfolio and "pretend" to buy opportunities to continue to improve my skills, reading charts and entry signals.
I will personally be watching IRI over the coming week to see how it goes, should continue going nowhere, I will be pulling the trigger on IRI as it has been in the portfolio for 4 weeks with little to no performance. Opportunity cost of a stagnant stock = other possible winners OR losers.
The chart above is SSM - Service Stream, which we bought in on the B/O of $1.25 and sold out at $1.34 for a small 7% profit. When SSM peaked at $1.45, we saw a LOT of supply coming into the market and not just small orders spread across different price points... We saw big supply blockade on the stock's order flow. I have had assistance of another fellow investor who pointed that out to me and I started to investigate it further.. I have crafted my theory that the majority shareholder, Thorney Opportunities Ltd, who owns 25%+ of SSM's listed securities, have been selling down their holding of SSM after holding it since the $0.20 era for profit taking. They have made a KILLING on the stock and I would imagine that they are now trying to release capital to seek other opportunities. From the 23/05 onwards, I was watching SSM's Order flow that it started with one big sell order at $1.45, and then another one at $1.40 and it kept going down. I decided to pull the plug on the trade and wait for the SP to overcome Thorney's profit taking before considering entering the stock again. What happened on the 09/06 at 1.36pm was a sudden plunge of supply which took out all the buy orders and sent the SP down to a low point of $1.16. I'd imagine after 2 weeks since putting the supply block at $1.45, Thorney Opps Ltd got impatient(for whatever reasons they may have) and decided to release capital regardless of price. This occurrence coincides with the coming end of financial year I would imagine, I would further ascertain that this supply block will go away again when we enter into the new FY. We shall see how it pans out..
** Let me know what you guys think about my theory!!
Onto some new opportunities that I have been watching but unable to participate in:
First off, we have RWC which made a B/O on the 08/06 above the $3.45 resistance level and zoom up again on the 09/06 to a closing price of $3.55. On the chart, the green line is where I would be placing my Stop Loss and base my position size on that. RWC is a relative new company to the exchange and they specialise in high quality water flow products used within the plumbing industry and is a market leader. 70% of their sales in generated in the US market (which supports my macro view of a lower AUD/USD in the short-med term). Watching the building approval in the US is a good indicator of how well this stock will perform Another risk is that they have large customers but only a few of them, should one of them pull out or change supplier, it would adversely affect RWC's earnings.
Another Stock that I have had an interest is in SAR, another gold miner which displayed an entry signal recently. It supports my view that geopolitical risk around the world is increasing and that gold is still the safe haven that people go to in times of crisis. A lower AUD/USD also helps miners/producers keep their margins high. It has been on a downtrend as marked by that big red arrow before consolidating and creating a Horizontal breakout @ $1.10 on the 07/06/2017. If I had capital to take part in this position, I would be doing a half position on the B/O above $1.10 and the other half on the breakout of $1.30.
Between the two new opportunities, I would be going with RWC over SAR - HOWEVER... if by the time I received funds from the sale of weak stock RWC has already run off on high demand, I would then lean towards the one that offers the best R/R. RWC is my bread and butter trade and even if I miss the B/O (which I have already) I will be waiting on the small pull back to enter.
Hope you have a great week ahead of yourselves!!
Regards,
Ryan
This week, as our portfolio has no available cash, we can do the following:
1) Sell weak stocks (IRI I'm watching you closely) to make cash available for new opportunities
2) Scan the market as per usual but just create a fake portfolio and "pretend" to buy opportunities to continue to improve my skills, reading charts and entry signals.
I will personally be watching IRI over the coming week to see how it goes, should continue going nowhere, I will be pulling the trigger on IRI as it has been in the portfolio for 4 weeks with little to no performance. Opportunity cost of a stagnant stock = other possible winners OR losers.
The chart above is SSM - Service Stream, which we bought in on the B/O of $1.25 and sold out at $1.34 for a small 7% profit. When SSM peaked at $1.45, we saw a LOT of supply coming into the market and not just small orders spread across different price points... We saw big supply blockade on the stock's order flow. I have had assistance of another fellow investor who pointed that out to me and I started to investigate it further.. I have crafted my theory that the majority shareholder, Thorney Opportunities Ltd, who owns 25%+ of SSM's listed securities, have been selling down their holding of SSM after holding it since the $0.20 era for profit taking. They have made a KILLING on the stock and I would imagine that they are now trying to release capital to seek other opportunities. From the 23/05 onwards, I was watching SSM's Order flow that it started with one big sell order at $1.45, and then another one at $1.40 and it kept going down. I decided to pull the plug on the trade and wait for the SP to overcome Thorney's profit taking before considering entering the stock again. What happened on the 09/06 at 1.36pm was a sudden plunge of supply which took out all the buy orders and sent the SP down to a low point of $1.16. I'd imagine after 2 weeks since putting the supply block at $1.45, Thorney Opps Ltd got impatient(for whatever reasons they may have) and decided to release capital regardless of price. This occurrence coincides with the coming end of financial year I would imagine, I would further ascertain that this supply block will go away again when we enter into the new FY. We shall see how it pans out..
** Let me know what you guys think about my theory!!
Onto some new opportunities that I have been watching but unable to participate in:
First off, we have RWC which made a B/O on the 08/06 above the $3.45 resistance level and zoom up again on the 09/06 to a closing price of $3.55. On the chart, the green line is where I would be placing my Stop Loss and base my position size on that. RWC is a relative new company to the exchange and they specialise in high quality water flow products used within the plumbing industry and is a market leader. 70% of their sales in generated in the US market (which supports my macro view of a lower AUD/USD in the short-med term). Watching the building approval in the US is a good indicator of how well this stock will perform
Another risk is that they have large customers but only a few of them, should one of them pull out or change supplier, it would adversely affect RWC's earnings.Another Stock that I have had an interest is in SAR, another gold miner which displayed an entry signal recently. It supports my view that geopolitical risk around the world is increasing and that gold is still the safe haven that people go to in times of crisis. A lower AUD/USD also helps miners/producers keep their margins high. It has been on a downtrend as marked by that big red arrow before consolidating and creating a Horizontal breakout @ $1.10 on the 07/06/2017. If I had capital to take part in this position, I would be doing a half position on the B/O above $1.10 and the other half on the breakout of $1.30.
Between the two new opportunities, I would be going with RWC over SAR - HOWEVER... if by the time I received funds from the sale of weak stock RWC has already run off on high demand, I would then lean towards the one that offers the best R/R. RWC is my bread and butter trade and even if I miss the B/O (which I have already) I will be waiting on the small pull back to enter.
Hope you have a great week ahead of yourselves!!
Regards,
Ryan
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I agree Ryan
Rypieee
Newbie Keen Beans
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Always good to get confirmation from a highly regarded ASF member
Will be looking within SSM over the month of June/July for another entry confirmation
Rypieee
Newbie Keen Beans
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Mid-week trading update:
We sold off IRI yesterday due to little or no momentum in the share price that seems to just be going sideways. If IRI displayed a stronger entry signal, we will re-consider entry back into the stock! IRI was sold with a minor loss of -4.89%
We also sold off WTC yesterday as the technology sector fell (or only selected stocks) and WTC hit it's stop loss at $7.50. It has now bounced back to $4.60 but we managed to lock in a nice profit of 16.84%. Should WTC display another entry signal, we will reconsider entering the stock again.
I do like both IRI and WTC fundamentally and the recent sell off has reduced my exposure to the tech sector from 3 stocks to just one (APX). But I need to follow my hard and fast rules (in regard to WTC) and my discretionary decision (regarding IRI)
A new inclusion into the portfolio is Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd(ASX.SAR) and this would mean that we now have two gold stocks within the portfolio. Gold stocks are supported by my macro view as per previous comments.
What I have been watching closely in recent times is the AUD/USD and a weaker AUD/USD will help a lot of the stocks held within my portfolio as most of them derive their earnings from overseas market. It will also most definitely help the gold miners within the portfolio.
We still have 7.1% of the portfolio sitting in cash at the present moment and there will be a capital injection coming shortly. We will always be on the look out for upcoming opportunities and the work will never end if I want to achieve above market returns within my portfolio!!
**[HELP]** How can I include the new capital into the portfolio without disrupting my performance/data? How do you guys deal with new capital in a portfolio???
Final note, our position in BBOZ has been hammered as the market recovered strongly over the past two days, the position is now closing in on it's stop loss at $16.10. Pretty sad that this isn't work out as well as I thought it would but that also means that the remaining stocks in the portfolio won't be doing as well as it has!! Should my timing on the BBOZ trade be incorrect, we will be taking our losses and exiting out of the trade.
Happy investing and may the stock market odds be ever in your favor
Ryan
We sold off IRI yesterday due to little or no momentum in the share price that seems to just be going sideways. If IRI displayed a stronger entry signal, we will re-consider entry back into the stock! IRI was sold with a minor loss of -4.89%
We also sold off WTC yesterday as the technology sector fell (or only selected stocks) and WTC hit it's stop loss at $7.50. It has now bounced back to $4.60 but we managed to lock in a nice profit of 16.84%. Should WTC display another entry signal, we will reconsider entering the stock again.
I do like both IRI and WTC fundamentally and the recent sell off has reduced my exposure to the tech sector from 3 stocks to just one (APX). But I need to follow my hard and fast rules (in regard to WTC) and my discretionary decision (regarding IRI)
A new inclusion into the portfolio is Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd(ASX.SAR) and this would mean that we now have two gold stocks within the portfolio. Gold stocks are supported by my macro view as per previous comments.
What I have been watching closely in recent times is the AUD/USD and a weaker AUD/USD will help a lot of the stocks held within my portfolio as most of them derive their earnings from overseas market. It will also most definitely help the gold miners within the portfolio.
We still have 7.1% of the portfolio sitting in cash at the present moment and there will be a capital injection coming shortly. We will always be on the look out for upcoming opportunities and the work will never end if I want to achieve above market returns within my portfolio!!
**[HELP]** How can I include the new capital into the portfolio without disrupting my performance/data? How do you guys deal with new capital in a portfolio???
Final note, our position in BBOZ has been hammered as the market recovered strongly over the past two days, the position is now closing in on it's stop loss at $16.10. Pretty sad that this isn't work out as well as I thought it would but that also means that the remaining stocks in the portfolio won't be doing as well as it has!! Should my timing on the BBOZ trade be incorrect, we will be taking our losses and exiting out of the trade.
Happy investing and may the stock market odds be ever in your favor
Ryan
Rypieee
Newbie Keen Beans
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Hi readers!
Apologies for not posting last week, was down with a horrible cold and couldn't even get out of bed, feeling much better this week though
EOW 07
Portfolio performance up to date (Starting 1st of March 2017) = 7.76%
Market performance (ASX200) up to date from 1st March 2017 = 0.19%
This week we bought RWC into the portfolio @ $3.51 but was removed @$3.38 due to the gap down in the price. We got out with a small loss of -3.70%. We put in an order after the stock broke out of the $3.50 and it was filled when the stock gapped down strongly from $3.70. Was a discretionary decision to quit the position and sit on the sidelines for the time being.
We have a capital injection coming into the portfolio which I will include at the end of next week as it is the end of the financial year. Going forward into FY 17-18, we will be restarting the performance of the portfolio down to 0% and I will be recording the performance of the portfolio as per financial year.
So far the portfolio is chugging along just fine, on the big ASX down day of -1.5% (21/06/2017), our portfolio was up 0.25% due to our position in BBOZ and COH - COH's Nucleus 7 received a FDA approval on the 21/06 and also due to being in a defensive sector (healthcare) it fared pretty well on a massive down day.
Apologies for not posting last week, was down with a horrible cold and couldn't even get out of bed, feeling much better this week though
EOW 07
Portfolio performance up to date (Starting 1st of March 2017) = 7.76%
Market performance (ASX200) up to date from 1st March 2017 = 0.19%
This week we bought RWC into the portfolio @ $3.51 but was removed @$3.38 due to the gap down in the price. We got out with a small loss of -3.70%. We put in an order after the stock broke out of the $3.50 and it was filled when the stock gapped down strongly from $3.70. Was a discretionary decision to quit the position and sit on the sidelines for the time being.
We have a capital injection coming into the portfolio which I will include at the end of next week as it is the end of the financial year. Going forward into FY 17-18, we will be restarting the performance of the portfolio down to 0% and I will be recording the performance of the portfolio as per financial year.
So far the portfolio is chugging along just fine, on the big ASX down day of -1.5% (21/06/2017), our portfolio was up 0.25% due to our position in BBOZ and COH - COH's Nucleus 7 received a FDA approval on the 21/06 and also due to being in a defensive sector (healthcare) it fared pretty well on a massive down day.
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Good to see these stocks have held up well while the banks, mining and oil stocks dragged the market down a bit which I've been monitoring.
I'll also be waiting for my tax return for some extra capital
I'll also be waiting for my tax return for some extra capital
Rypieee
Newbie Keen Beans
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**Mid week thoughts**
I am starting to re-consider my gold trades with NST and SAR as they have not performed as well as I wanted them to. I got into Gold due to increasing geopolitical risk around the world and as a hedge against my portfolio but it seems that on a down day in the ASX, the gold players were also down. In fact, on the previous big down day (21/06/2017), what was holding my portfolio up was the BBOZ position and COH.
Is gold really a good hedge for the portfolio, specifically against geopolitical risk? Would I rather hedge the portfolio using BBOZ? Is having quality stocks within the portfolio sufficient enough to ward against drops in the markets? Or should I just go to cash as a form of protection in my portfolio??
I just have a sinking feeling that the gold stocks are holding the performance of the portfolio down...
On a brighter note! The end of financial year is coming this Friday and that means that our performance is restarting for the new financial year. We will also be injecting additional capital into the portfolio on the weekend. I am also going to start using the ASX200 Accumulation index to be the benchmark against the portfolio rather than just the XAO as it will give a better indication of performance.
In the past few weeks, I have been considering new strategies to deploy in the portfolio and any gaps in my trading that I want to work on as we come into the new financial year.
One of which is scaling into strong positions. (Anyone who is reading and does use scaling in as part of their strategy, I would be interested to hear your thoughts and how you approach scaling in). The idea that I have in mind right now would be to start a position with a capital of 10% of the portfolio and if it shows strength in the price action down the road, to add another 5% of capital into the trade - however, the 5% can only be added in when the stock's stop loss is higher than the entry price. What I have is pretty weak at the moment as I have been
The second thing that I want to be better at in the new FY is to execute my trades properly. There have been a few trade that I have done in the past (after reviewing my previous trades) that were executed SOOO FREAKING BADLY and I completely messed up my risk/reward on the trade, taking on unnecessary risk for minimal profit.
The third thing I would like to work on is to remember that my portfolio/trading plan is based on a longer term time frame and have more patience with my trades.
In the past, I have set my stop loss level to closely, giving no room for the stock to move. I have also discretionary remove a stock from the portfolio due to little performance and guess what happens after I remove the stock from the portfolio?? Murphy's Law kick in and the stock zooms off... Examples of this is IRI and CSL which i remove due to lack of performance and look where it is at now If there is no reason to remove the stock from the portfolio (changes in fundamental, macro or technical view) then I should leave the stock be.
Have a good week everyone
Ryan
I am starting to re-consider my gold trades with NST and SAR as they have not performed as well as I wanted them to. I got into Gold due to increasing geopolitical risk around the world and as a hedge against my portfolio but it seems that on a down day in the ASX, the gold players were also down. In fact, on the previous big down day (21/06/2017), what was holding my portfolio up was the BBOZ position and COH.
Is gold really a good hedge for the portfolio, specifically against geopolitical risk? Would I rather hedge the portfolio using BBOZ? Is having quality stocks within the portfolio sufficient enough to ward against drops in the markets? Or should I just go to cash as a form of protection in my portfolio??
I just have a sinking feeling that the gold stocks are holding the performance of the portfolio down...
On a brighter note! The end of financial year is coming this Friday and that means that our performance is restarting for the new financial year. We will also be injecting additional capital into the portfolio on the weekend. I am also going to start using the ASX200 Accumulation index to be the benchmark against the portfolio rather than just the XAO as it will give a better indication of performance.
In the past few weeks, I have been considering new strategies to deploy in the portfolio and any gaps in my trading that I want to work on as we come into the new financial year.
One of which is scaling into strong positions. (Anyone who is reading and does use scaling in as part of their strategy, I would be interested to hear your thoughts and how you approach scaling in). The idea that I have in mind right now would be to start a position with a capital of 10% of the portfolio and if it shows strength in the price action down the road, to add another 5% of capital into the trade - however, the 5% can only be added in when the stock's stop loss is higher than the entry price. What I have is pretty weak at the moment as I have been
The second thing that I want to be better at in the new FY is to execute my trades properly. There have been a few trade that I have done in the past (after reviewing my previous trades) that were executed SOOO FREAKING BADLY and I completely messed up my risk/reward on the trade, taking on unnecessary risk for minimal profit.
The third thing I would like to work on is to remember that my portfolio/trading plan is based on a longer term time frame and have more patience with my trades.
In the past, I have set my stop loss level to closely, giving no room for the stock to move. I have also discretionary remove a stock from the portfolio due to little performance and guess what happens after I remove the stock from the portfolio?? Murphy's Law kick in and the stock zooms off... Examples of this is IRI and CSL which i remove due to lack of performance and look where it is at now
If there is no reason to remove the stock from the portfolio (changes in fundamental, macro or technical view) then I should leave the stock be.Have a good week everyone
Ryan
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