XAO Technical Analysis

[stanwell]

I can't see China breaking up as it's getting more united than ever after many years adoring the US. The COVID makes them no longer believe western democracy is better than their one party system.

IMHO, in the future the world will be dominated by G2, US and China. US will continue to be the center of political, military and technology. China will be the powerhouse for economic, manufacture and market.

 

[qldfrog]

I can't see China breaking up as it's getting more united than ever after many years adoring the US. The COVID makes them no longer believe western democracy is better than their one party system.

IMHO, in the future the world will be dominated by G2, US and China. US will continue to be the center of political, military and technology. China will be the powerhouse for economic, manufacture and market.

Agree: do not see China breaking up, I disagree with Friedman there but money is power, once you travel outside EU and americas, you realise money is Chinese now and this means power & control,
all of Asia already but Japan, whole of Africa, small island and pushing cards in latin america, not forgetting European weakest states..but not Ukraine LOL
As for technology, where do you think your iphone is not only produced but designed?
SO I see US doomed at least medium term, it could reborn if it get rid of its woke clique: good luck
US keep some military old school weapons, BIG stuff and $ spent..but if economic power is lost, they will lose the military too
All this too far from
XAO tech analysis;
for us, irrespective of who will lead the world in a decade, we are on the verge of a crash with rates, inflation and FIAT money in the US affecting our market;
As we are commodities based, we should go better than US market AFTER the crash, AUD might even surge past the initial USD refuge first frights
so for the rebound or slow recovery after, bet AUD is sensible
Give it a month or 2 from now to see full story
as discussed on the graph and with my glasses,we are moving from support levels to ceiling ones
still bear XAO a good 20% or more.cash ready

 

[divs4ever]

I can't see China breaking up as it's getting more united than ever after many years adoring the US. The COVID makes them no longer believe western democracy is better than their one party system.

IMHO, in the future the world will be dominated by G2, US and China. US will continue to be the center of political, military and technology. China will be the powerhouse for economic, manufacture and market.

yes not breaking up , but MAYBE slightly more moderate to increase productivity and innovation ( i don't see it dropping controls completely or even substantially reduced ) am looking at China and India ( especially if India can form a trading bloc with Pakistan, Bangladesh , Sri Lanka , and Kashmir ) being the two whales in the global economy , i see both the EU and US wallowing in their own bloat , and indulgence

but don't neglect Mexico forming a Pan-American bloc to become a significant force as well , or a unified Korea ( but that should be a long and painful process )

 

[Sean K]

Interesting juncture on the short term picture. Holding the support line mentioned above and 200&50 dma's converging to that support line and current value. Would be pretty positive if the general market pushes up through this confluence strongly. Might depend on what happens with Russia/Ukraine news tonight, if you believe news moves markets.

 

[stanwell]

yes not breaking up , but MAYBE slightly more moderate to increase productivity and innovation ( i don't see it dropping controls completely or even substantially reduced ) am looking at China and India ( especially if India can form a trading bloc with Pakistan, Bangladesh , Sri Lanka , and Kashmir ) being the two whales in the global economy , i see both the EU and US wallowing in their own bloat , and indulgence

but don't neglect Mexico forming a Pan-American bloc to become a significant force as well , or a unified Korea ( but that should be a long and painful process )

I agree China needs to be more moderate. At the moment, it's being plagued by corruption and bureaucracy. This is the bottleneck for them to develop further and gain more respect. Looking at the west, apart from occasional cases, corruption and bureaucracy is not an issue at all.

 

[divs4ever]

sadly the world in general is becoming more like China especially in the bureaucracy department

why should China try for more respect when they can just corrupt influential people ( what you hear about is the tip of the iceberg )

don't be fooled they hook all the major sides of politics

 

[stanwell]

I use a proprietary adaptive MA which tracks the price quite well. The weekly price is currently below weekly MA. But I would consider the market as ranging because there isn't a new swing that has left the range.

 

[Greynomad99]

Some large companies getting punished today - not a pretty start to the week.

 

[Sean K]

Some large companies getting punished today - not a pretty start to the week.

Breaking down through 7500 ish is bearish short term.

 

[qldfrog]

Don't worry,this is Australia.. she'll be right.. someone will buy the dip before end of day and asx will end up positive.our banks are immortal

 

[Greynomad99]

Seems to be finding a bottom around 7,400. Hopefully it will recover a bit this afternoon. I'm only down half the general market - so I guess that is OK. A fall below 7,340 would be a problem for the XAO. That is 50% of the last weekly range (from trough to peak) and a close above that suggests a possible recovery while a close below would suggest to me that the XAO will retest the lower boundary of a price channel it has been trading in - around 7250. However, that price channel isn't totally certain, so just need to watch the stop losses (basically a break below uptrend or a new lower low where an uptrend hasn't been confirmed). A lot of investors are taking a hiding this week. Gold continuing to look promising as a haven and pushing price up. Energy stocks to fall if Iran sells into the market. Putin's probably told his broker to go short if he has decided to pull the pin. ......Now where did I put that new bottle of Scotch?.....

 

[stanwell]

Most important indices are here.

I left out XEC and XGD as no room to include them.

 

[Greynomad99]

Most important indices are here.

I left out XEC and XGD as no room to include them.

View attachment 137953

Interesting to see them all laid out like this. Also interesting that only XSJ looks clearly bullish.

 

[stanwell]

XJO Daily, weekly and monthly. Still bearish.

Red circle on the daily is a possible target, but I hope I am wrong.

 

[Greynomad99]

As Sean K said - it is pretty hard for TA to be totally reliable in these difficult times. I say it is usually 75% on the money but at the moment I don't really put much faith in it (or much else either) and it only has academic interest. At least a less painful day today than yesterday - everyone has decided Ukraine is going to fall to Vlad the Impaler and nobody will be prepared to do anything militarily about it. Hopefully, the world will put an economic fence around Russia and put their economy (such that it is) and anyone who does business with them to the wall. The press reckons Vlad will use cryptocurrency as a work around - hopefully he bought a truckload of that recently and is now bleeding from every pore in his body.

 

[qldfrog]

As Sean K said - it is pretty hard for TA to be totally reliable in these difficult times. I say it is usually 75% on the money but at the moment I don't really put much faith in it (or much else either) and it only has academic interest. At least a less painful day today than yesterday - everyone has decided Ukraine is going to fall to Vlad the Impaler and nobody will be prepared to do anything militarily about it. Hopefully, the world will put an economic fence around Russia and put their economy (such that it is) and anyone who does business with them to the wall. The press reckons Vlad will use cryptocurrency as a work around - hopefully he bought a truckload of that recently and is now bleeding from every pore in his body.

So just to go a bit above the ABC/news very limited investigative brainpower:

Sanctions on Russia? Have been non stop for quite a few years now especially EU which enabled them to build an economy to replace many european products..and they are now exporting camember and champagne to china replacing French products there ...LOL.
If the west is serious and stop importing Russian minerals.and energy..then these will go straight to China. Discounted maybe..as China likes a bargain
but guess which country in the west is the loser? Uk? Germany ?..nooooo
The good Aussie kangaroo which will then try to redirect its unrequired export to China toward Europe.
good luck. . To compete with africa and south america
Noted the mention of crypto.. good so the official reason to make BTC illegal will be to beat the bad commies....?
Sure,can we get a 4th booster with that?and a lollipop.

 

[qldfrog]

So just to go a bit above the ABC/news very limited investigative brainpower:

Sanctions on Russia? Have been non stop for quite a few years now especially EU which enabled them to build an economy to replace many european products..and they are now exporting camember and champagne to china replacing French products there ...LOL.
If the west is serious and stop importing Russian minerals.and energy..then these will go straight to China. Discounted maybe..as China likes a bargain
but guess which country in the west is the loser? Uk? Germany ?..nooooo
The good Aussie kangaroo which will then try to redirect its unrequired export to China toward Europe.
good luck. . To compete with africa and south america
Noted the mention of crypto.. good so the official reason to make BTC illegal will be to beat the bad commies....?
Sure,can we get a 4th booster with that?and a lollipop.

So in short how much will sanctions on Russia cost us, and what is the effect on the ASX....
BTD..BTD...?

 

[Sean K]

As Sean K said - it is pretty hard for TA to be totally reliable in these difficult times. I say it is usually 75% on the money but at the moment I don't really put much faith in it (or much else either) and it only has academic interest. At least a less painful day today than yesterday - everyone has decided Ukraine is going to fall to Vlad the Impaler and nobody will be prepared to do anything militarily about it. Hopefully, the world will put an economic fence around Russia and put their economy (such that it is) and anyone who does business with them to the wall. The press reckons Vlad will use cryptocurrency as a work around - hopefully he bought a truckload of that recently and is now bleeding from every pore in his body.

EU press conference on at the moment and they are absolutely caning Russia. Vlad has put his country back a couple of decades.

 

[qldfrog]

EU press conference on at the moment and they are absolutely caning Russia. Vlad has put his country back a couple of decades.

We will talk again about that in 5y @Sean K and see.not so sure it is even a mistake from his part.

 

[stanwell]

Biggest loser: Ukraine.

Next loser: EU. Europe will be firmed controlled by the US even though it has been trying to be more independent. They will have to import gas and other commodities from the yanks at much higher price.

Mid term winners: Russia and US. Russia will have a buffer from NATO to make it safer than otherwise. US successfully separated EU from Russia. It can sell more energy products, it can get some of the money from EU to help its economy.

Long term winner: China. Russia will have to rely on China much more. Russia has to turn to Asia for its future development in the foreseeable future. China will get some, if not most, of the money that flows out of Europe. Yuan has been appreciating sharply in the last few days.

When we have a superpower like US, with American First policy, the world is not going to be as calm as Botany Bay.