XAO Technical Analysis

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks as though the 4700 ish analysis for this leg up
may well play out.
looking to see if this gap on the SPI this morning holds.
I expect Europe and US to come off a little tonight.
There always seems to be an exhaustive move that preceeds price and we have seen a few lately.
My bias is now bearish from analysis.
4700+ would alter my view.

Appears I was a day early!
Europe now showing signs of exhaustion in this latest move.
Above analysis now appears set.

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

Appears I was a day early!
Europe now showing signs of exhaustion in this latest move.
Above analysis now appears set.

What does last nights strength in the US and todays in Aus do to your count tech?

I was short on a few stock in the US on the basis that the test of previous support would fail. They got stopped out last night. Markets are still showing some resiliance.

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

W.4 retracement range is still valid Sammy, it just has to bounce around in there and then decide if it is going to continue to comply.

Parameters below based on W.1-W.3 and W.3 retracement.

What does the auto routine in AGET say tech/a ?

(click to expand)

 

[mikeroxoz]

Re: XAO Analysis

My bias is now bearish from analysis.
4700+ would alter my view.

Hi Tech/a

I find all your posts most edumacating.

Is 4699.6 close enough to alter your view? Tomorrow's action will give us all an answer I presume.

Thanks for all the fish

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Tech/a

I find all your posts most edumacating.

Is 4699.6 close enough to alter your view? Tomorrow's action will give us all an answer I presume.

Thanks for all the fish

 

[bbker]

Re: XAO Analysis

So where's the bottom, tech/a?

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,

What's the "40 PTI" and the two vertical black lines on your posted chart? Is this a fib time extension indicating where typical wave 4 should terminate?

Thanks,
Raz.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

So where's the bottom, tech/a?

Of this move IF it plays out as is currently expected the first target of the final wave 5 in this move is 4,400-4,500 by around 20/4

Tech,

What's the "40 PTI" and the two vertical black lines on your posted chart? Is this a fib time extension indicating where typical wave 4 should terminate?

Thanks,
Raz.

Yes to the black lines
PTI is the "Profit Taking Index" a generated value by GET using a proprietary formula.(I cant see it) It only appears during a Wave 4 correction.

It is calculated by comparing the Buying and selling momentum in wave 3 to that in the current wave 4 creating a value---a value above 35 weighs the likely hood of a wave 5 higher than if below 35 commonly a double top or bottom occurs and not a higher or lower wave 5 termination. Just one of the many tools which comes with the software.

So the XJO is highly likely to go lower than the wave 3

PEN in another thread likely to go below wave 3

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well the week ended a tad shy of 4840 to make a nice morning star on the Weekly Chart.

But with overseas markets positive overnight I'm still going on my FA that it's uptrend from here.

So instead of a wave 4 up I'm looking for a wave 2 down a tad but not a lower low.

Does Aget and (your's boggo) change count automatically if the break goes the other way?

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

Does Aget and (your's boggo) change count automatically if the break goes the other way?

It will change with a strong uptrend but there are a couple of hurdles still ahead.

Refer to first chart below for the points.

First (and next) point of interest is the low of what we are currently labelling W.1 at 4877, if it breaks above (and closes above) that then it eliminates the possibility of a five wave sequence.
Next sequence should it close above 4877 would be to call all of the last down leg a wave A and the current up leg to be a wave B.
For that to be valid this uptrend cannot close above 4931 which is the 0.786 retracement of wave A and the theoretical limit for a wave B.

There has been a larger degree picture in place since the last recent low (second pic below).
While this looks good and needs to be confirmed by a new high it is not a good looking W.2 without at least and ABC.

At some point it will provide the next piece of the jigsaw.

At the moment for me I have mixed feelings (like watching your mother in law going over a cliff in a new BMW ) as I am long and doing OK on four stocks (ALK, BSE, LYC and PRR) and would like to see the market continue up while on the other hand I can say I told you so when it turns down !

I am an amateur at this stuff and consequently a second opinion on this is necessary especially when the parameters change.

(click to expand)

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm thinking it may go a tad higher before I get my little wave ii... if my minor count is correct, somewhere before 4977.9.

My usual charting program is still broke, but this gives the idea.

I like the look of a wave iii on the MACD crossover.

It looks like the 5 wave down count is probably eliminated as a possibility eh?

 

[Synergy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks to have bounced off the rising trendline on the XAO and XJO today...

But from my fairly roughly drawn lines it's broken up into the parallel channel on the XJO. Positive signs?

Appears to be at a real crossroads here though. For me if it can break up above the lower trendline I'd be more confident that it wasn't about to head back down.

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm giving little weight to XAO analysis at present The US markets have shown so much resilience that it has pretty much made analysing the XAO redundant. Trendlines, wave counts etc in the XAO mean little at the moment. Will be keeping my focus on the US. Upcoming resistance in the 1332-1344 area in the S&P500 which if reached will hopefully provide a clearer picture.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm giving little weight to XAO analysis at present The US markets have shown so much resilience that it has pretty much made analysing the XAO redundant. Trendlines, wave counts etc in the XAO mean little at the moment. Will be keeping my focus on the US. Upcoming resistance in the 1332-1344 area in the S&P500 which if reached will hopefully provide a clearer picture.

Huh?

A chart is a chart.

Are you trading the S&P based on the XAO?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Huh?

A chart is a chart.

Yeah, I reckon there is a distinct parallel.

For me the US has got a bit ahead of us as we stumble with a bit of uncertainty with all these new tax arguements and slowing growth.

But I reckon both are just starting off wave 3 of 3 at least and maybe of 5

Line is S&P 500

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Most have given a good idea of the new Elliott counts.
Here is GET's---

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Another possible double top scenario on anniversary of 2010 top.
(GET’s MOB is projected from Feb’s Primary pivot.)

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

Huh?

A chart is a chart.

Are you trading the S&P based on the XAO?

No the other way around. I'm trading the XAO based on the S&P. To be precise I'm seeking some confluence between the US and AUS before I will be decisively long or short. Since January the XAO has been showing several signs of weakness. US on the other hand has been trending nicely. Such a situation is just knocking me in and out of positions in Aus.

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

No the other way around. I'm trading the XAO based on the S&P. To be precise I'm seeking some confluence between the US and AUS before I will be decisively long or short. Since January the XAO has been showing several signs of weakness. US on the other hand has been trending nicely. Such a situation is just knocking me in and out of positions in Aus.
View attachment 42190

If that is your view you should just long Australian index and short S&P500...

It is perfectly ok for XAO to not follow S&P500. Afterall our reserve bank is being quite responsible with the monetary policies (whether they are effective is another debate).

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

If that is your view you should just long Australian index and short S&P500...

It is perfectly ok for XAO to not follow S&P500. Afterall our reserve bank is being quite responsible with the monetary policies (whether they are effective is another debate).

Agreed it's ok for the two indexes not to mirror. Just when there is little confluence in can make short term trading frustrating. My systems in the US is going fine, AUS I'm just getting whipsawed however.