Sean K
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
Kenna's
Just noticed the first chart is a weekly chart
The second a daily.
Now I can see your confusion.
Bit hard to tell which day it is!!!
Seriously though a daily and WEEKLY COUNT can differ at times.
The weekly is showing a final wave 5 move down which marries in with the end of a wave 5 move in the daily---both are looking at a move down.
The counts are not mine but AGET's.
They are not ideal but enough to suit my purpose.
Kenna's
Just noticed the first chart is a weekly chart
The second a daily.
Now I can see your confusion.
Bit hard to tell which day it is!!!
Seriously though a daily and WEEKLY COUNT can differ at times.
The weekly is showing a final wave 5 move down which marries in with the end of a wave 5 move in the daily---both are looking at a move down.
The counts are not mine but AGET's.
They are not ideal but enough to suit my purpose.
Re: XAO Analysis
clicked under 4650 tonight so we are getting to the point where another pause / snapback has potential . the range extension on daily in the right area . geopolitical events escalating atm . crazy world getting crazier , price action is king
clicked under 4650 tonight so we are getting to the point where another pause / snapback has potential . the range extension on daily in the right area . geopolitical events escalating atm . crazy world getting crazier , price action is king
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Re: XAO Analysis
UP AND ATOM!
Interesting how SPI's only up 10pts since the open buy a lot of the miners have reversed hard
UP AND ATOM!
Interesting how SPI's only up 10pts since the open buy a lot of the miners have reversed hard
skc
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Re: XAO Analysis
Not the most convincing reversal... a 30 pt run up from the bottom and now retraced 2/3. My view is that US has really only fallen for 1 day and the chance of a follow through is definitely there.
Not the most convincing reversal... a 30 pt run up from the bottom and now retraced 2/3. My view is that US has really only fallen for 1 day and the chance of a follow through is definitely there.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Dont think Broadway is too far off the mark--maybe a little early and interesting that you use analysis similar to mine re ---re occurring patterns in lots of stocks at the same time similar patterns are appearing in the index.
This has proven to be a very solid and accurate pre curser to larger turns in the market.
in 2007 they were all ending wave 5/5/of 5 patterns.
CLICK TO EXPAND
Dont think Broadway is too far off the mark--maybe a little early and interesting that you use analysis similar to mine re ---re occurring patterns in lots of stocks at the same time similar patterns are appearing in the index.
This has proven to be a very solid and accurate pre curser to larger turns in the market.
in 2007 they were all ending wave 5/5/of 5 patterns.
CLICK TO EXPAND
Garpal Gumnut
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Re: XAO Analysis
Another look at the long term chart for the XAO.
I am looking at a low of 3500, or lower for the XAO this year.
gg
Another look at the long term chart for the XAO.
I am looking at a low of 3500, or lower for the XAO this year.
gg
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Re: XAO Analysis
Agree, a lot of similiar patterns are prevalent at the moment.
First chart below indicated a possible high around 4960 between dates shown, actual top was on 17th Feb and over 5000.
The bottom chart highlights an area of confluence around 4500 between 7th April and 9th May.
Just my
, make what you want of it 
(click to expand)
Agree, a lot of similiar patterns are prevalent at the moment.
First chart below indicated a possible high around 4960 between dates shown, actual top was on 17th Feb and over 5000.
The bottom chart highlights an area of confluence around 4500 between 7th April and 9th May.
Just my
, make what you want of it (click to expand)
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Re: XAO Analysis
We seem to have arrived early and in style.
Where to from here, current area just above 4500 is significant imo.
Same theory by two applications below.
(click to expand)
We seem to have arrived early and in style.
Where to from here, current area just above 4500 is significant imo.
Same theory by two applications below.
(click to expand)
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Re: XAO Analysis
The market has a lot to contend with at the moment as someone pointed out in the 'perfect storm' thread.
I'll be looking to see how it reacts if/when any positive international or domestic news is released. Remember, when market sentiment is very poor, positive news creates very little buying pressure. I expect this to be the case now. That means that I probably won't be buying if Japan suddenly declares everything is safe. Nor will I be likely to buy if the situation in Libya is settled.
I feel like a lot of time is needed for the market to resume an uptrend. If that's the case, a heck of a lot of money will be flowing out of small caps, and not just U stocks.
Looking for trading ideas. Nothing much is coming to mind. Maybe the next run up will finally involve the alternative energy stocks.
Things likely to whipsaw with all this volatility, making charts a bit problematic right now IMO.
The market has a lot to contend with at the moment as someone pointed out in the 'perfect storm' thread.
I'll be looking to see how it reacts if/when any positive international or domestic news is released. Remember, when market sentiment is very poor, positive news creates very little buying pressure. I expect this to be the case now. That means that I probably won't be buying if Japan suddenly declares everything is safe. Nor will I be likely to buy if the situation in Libya is settled.
I feel like a lot of time is needed for the market to resume an uptrend. If that's the case, a heck of a lot of money will be flowing out of small caps, and not just U stocks.
Looking for trading ideas. Nothing much is coming to mind. Maybe the next run up will finally involve the alternative energy stocks.
Things likely to whipsaw with all this volatility, making charts a bit problematic right now IMO.
Garpal Gumnut
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Re: XAO Analysis
I must admit to being an old fashioned chartist.
Many of you guys and gals are counting angels on pinheads.
This is a bear market, it's going down.
Any indicator you mention is predicated on price, volume and time.
It's going down.
End of story.
gg
I must admit to being an old fashioned chartist.
Many of you guys and gals are counting angels on pinheads.
This is a bear market, it's going down.
Any indicator you mention is predicated on price, volume and time.
It's going down.
End of story.
gg
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Re: XAO Analysis
Agreed, we saw that coming back here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=613895&viewfull=1#post613895
and here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=610417&viewfull=1#post610417
and here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=614162&viewfull=1#post614162
Now we are trying to find where a bottom might eventuate, any contribution ?
Agreed, we saw that coming back here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=613895&viewfull=1#post613895
and here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=610417&viewfull=1#post610417
and here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=614162&viewfull=1#post614162
Now we are trying to find where a bottom might eventuate, any contribution ?
Garpal Gumnut
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Re: XAO Analysis
3500
Three thousand five hundred.
Give or take 2-300.
See my long term chart on this thread.
gg
3500
Three thousand five hundred.
Give or take 2-300.
See my long term chart on this thread.
gg
Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
I'd say the 'crisis' (in Japan) was over stated in the heat of the moment and a bit of sensational journalism.
The chance of a nuclear meltdown, explosion and widespread radiation is insignificant imo. I understand the explosions have been essentially hydrogen from the sea water used as emergency cooling, but the fuel rods are not significantly hot or the containment vessels significantly damaged to likely cause any long term problems. I think the safety mechanisms built into the system have worked fairly well and it's been more logistical issues than actual unreversable damage that is slowing the shutting down of the plants.
The main reason at the start of this correction seemed to be the midle east 'crisis'. That dissapeared from the headlines for the last few days, but is still happening.
The market was due for a correction anyway imo on fundamentals. World growth is widely forcast to slow in the next couple of years after pretty much recovering from the GFC and all the stimulus packages. In the end I expect the markets will see slower world growth especially the easing of fears of runaway inflation in China as a good thing for longer term world growth. This is where I see the Aus market outperforming the rest of the world via our resources.
I'm afraid my usual chart is not working atm so I've plotted my EW count on Bigcharts. I also note there are a lot of oversold TA signals.
If my prefered count is right, we are probably at or very near this bottom and will rebound into a wave iii of 3 which should be a decent push into new post GFC highs.
I'd say the 'crisis' (in Japan) was over stated in the heat of the moment and a bit of sensational journalism.
The chance of a nuclear meltdown, explosion and widespread radiation is insignificant imo. I understand the explosions have been essentially hydrogen from the sea water used as emergency cooling, but the fuel rods are not significantly hot or the containment vessels significantly damaged to likely cause any long term problems. I think the safety mechanisms built into the system have worked fairly well and it's been more logistical issues than actual unreversable damage that is slowing the shutting down of the plants.
The main reason at the start of this correction seemed to be the midle east 'crisis'. That dissapeared from the headlines for the last few days, but is still happening.
The market was due for a correction anyway imo on fundamentals. World growth is widely forcast to slow in the next couple of years after pretty much recovering from the GFC and all the stimulus packages. In the end I expect the markets will see slower world growth especially the easing of fears of runaway inflation in China as a good thing for longer term world growth. This is where I see the Aus market outperforming the rest of the world via our resources.
I'm afraid my usual chart is not working atm so I've plotted my EW count on Bigcharts. I also note there are a lot of oversold TA signals.
If my prefered count is right, we are probably at or very near this bottom and will rebound into a wave iii of 3 which should be a decent push into new post GFC highs.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Copper ran overnight. Freeport Morgan and other bhp peers ran.
Also bhp has a fairly high beta
Copper ran overnight. Freeport Morgan and other bhp peers ran.
Also bhp has a fairly high beta
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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