XAO Technical Analysis

[RazzaDazzla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Last night ball on concrete tonight---bounce---not that hard is it?

Just had a glance at the Jun SPI chart. That ball must have been a bouncy ball!

So; Was the recent down a correction and up from here to new highs? Or are we now correcting and down further.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just had a glance at the Jun SPI chart. That ball must have been a bouncy ball!

So; Was the recent down a correction and up from here to new highs? Or are we now correcting and down further.

Already posted thoughts here. Dont want to post it twice.
I expect a test of this low before finishing the wave count.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22194&page=7

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Curve fitting.

Maybe, but it fits pretty well.

But then again, what MA's aren't curve fitting or curve following?

With the rationale of fibonacci and the various variations of 'magic numbers' that seemingly occur regularly in nature, it seems logical that apart from fibonacci as a pure retracement, it may be more accurate/relevant related to the MA or EMA based on same.

On that note I'm tending to think an EMA may be more relevant.

Last night ball on concrete tonight---bounce---not that hard is it?

...or the train just passed through a bit of a valley and got a head of steam up again?

The daily 62 EMA (based on the often used important 61.8 fibonacci) is not much diferent to the earlier 78 SMA at this point in the daily chart (bottom)... likely chance of a bounce off the curve (trend) line.

The weekly 62 EMA on the weekly (top) seems consistent with the notion that smaller degree corrections aught to bounce off the daily trend line.

I note also that the weekly is still showing a bit of MACD divergance... but if this is a wave iii of iii of 3 forming, then this should be about when the MACD should start looking up.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers Fibonacci is an interesting topic..
But 1.618 and .618 etc are ratios

They relate to exponential growth

The sequence 1 3 5 8 13 21 ... converges to the ratio 1.618 as the numbers get larger

You can start the sequence with any numbers

People do use 21 and 8 as periods for a moving average
or they might use 13 and 55 etc

Here is where your data fitting
a 62 EMA is a different period WMA SMA etc
you can make any moving average = a 62 ema by changing the method of calculation

So what makes this one the Fibonacci one ?

If you have two averages of the same type .. THEN you can draw them in a ratio of 1.618... If you think that is important..

If you are using just one moving average then your seed moving average is a 1 day moving average so you need to use the actual "numbers" 3 5 8 13 etc

You can do all that IF you think it is important


Is exponential Growth ( and decay ) a KEY to understanding markets
Yes I think it is...

IS the particular growth rate of 61.8% == I doubt it.
It is just one example of a growth rate..

Why is not 100% more important ?
Most people think in terms of how long to double something or halve ?





Motorway

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Good food for thought motorway.

I'll mull over it over easter sometime, maybe, between drinking and eating and all sorts of other things... and see if I can find some MOVING criteria of (and maybe peculiar to) a market indicie that has some strong correlation with fibonacci (other than EW).

Btw, how's the P&F analysis looking? Any key points in the picture there?

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Good food for thought motorway.

Btw, how's the P&F analysis looking? Any key points in the picture there?

Whiskers start with 0 0 1 1 and add all the numbers left of the last one.

0 0 1 1 2 , then add all of those left of the last one (2) again 0 0 1 2 4 then to infinity..

0 0 1 2 4 8 16 32 ....

Fibbonacci is a part of the set of such "logarithmic sequences" Where you add only the last number to the left ( instead of the , last 2 3 4 5 100 1,000,000 or as in the sequence above where ALL are added.. )

Why are these sequences important ? NATURE BUILDS WITH THEM and MINDS THINK in TERMS of THEM..

Every situation in which the growth-rate of a quantity is proportional and directly related to its present level is described by such a sequence.

In fact to think in terms of linear scales is in a away unnatural.

So here are two charts..

They move in stair step patterns Because Whereto is Proportional to Wherenow
and The scale is as defined above "natural" it does not need a Fibonacci Overlay..

Also include an earlier period to compare

The probability I see is more likely a move to test the pre GFC Highs
The move down did not follow through and the move up has strongly at present been negated ..

This is a very logical "Halfway point'' Where a significant line across the ~ 4670 has formed .. ( Think of a stair step )

As Tech/A would say with his EW .. Where in the life cycle of the trend are we ?

Also ..Just take what unfolds... Plenty of reference points to get ones bearings


45 degree lines -->
Every situation in which the growth-rate of a quantity is proportional and directly related to its present level is described by such a sequence= LINE.

Key levels of support and resistance ...

activity in reference to that 4670 area etc

Trends congest ,,, and congestion gives was to trends..

Motorway

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

I found Wed-Fri's conditions very difficult for trading. Hardest for quite some time. Anyone else? All my trades lost money.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

channel broke early march , made lower swing low and then a slightly higher swing high ( double top ?? ) fridays candle on 24 cash looks bullish with that long lower shadow . that easter swing high key reference early next week . RBA on tuesday be pivotal after last weeks high CPI . certainly selling pressure coming in 4950 area . daily close under 4800 and ill be looking for the 50 of the major swing at 4650ish . reference levels this week 4800 and 4935 for mine

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

2 hourly cash 200

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

...The probability I see is more likely a move to test the pre GFC Highs
The move down did not follow through and the move up has strongly at present been negated ..
This is a very logical "Halfway point'' Where a significant line across the ~ 4670 has formed .. ( Think of a stair step)...

Impressive analysis, and it's how I had set myself in this market. Been caught being overly bearish too many times in this run, which does seem to be pausing. Watching developments closely however.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's very hard to draw meaningful trend lines on the current pattern in the Ords.

The other thing is, sentiment is really very poor, in my estimation.

When sentiment is strong in one direction or the other, that's when a Heiken Ashi chart is a good way to find real turning points and avoid getting whipsawed with false ones. I have a feeling there might be a few to come.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

At +48, the Heineken-Asahi (hic) is white.... just. No point re-posting it.

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

Still no direction at today's close of 4831.7, needed a close above Friday's high to hint at its next move.
Nice target area around 5100 just waiting ?

(click to expand)

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .

forgot the chart

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .

The bulls tried to push it up but the bears held it in check. If it can't jump from the 4800 level I see it testing 4650 (and possibly lower). With all the sovereign debt issues bubbling back to the service I see Finance stocks dragging it down unless there is a real rally in resources.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Theoretically the XAO chart should tell us what sort of news we're going to hear from china in the next few days. So rather than wait for china to tell us their news on inflation, I say our market already knows, (though not in a literal sense of course). The XAO chart is saying china's news will be mildly negative, so we will get a sell off of 50-100 points. NBy the time the news is announced the market will have moved...right? Better to preempt it?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Latest Advanced GET for those interested.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .

and havent those reference points been in play . with another lower high confirmed it almost just seems academic for the next lower low to be made in coming days . previous swing low providing the reference level at the moment but its certainly under fire after the pretty meagre uptick to last swing high , didnt even make the 50 . id be very surprised if this 4690 level holds . i got 4630 pegged this week for starters with march lows being the magnet after that . GDP going to be crap and the market knows it ....................

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

The 4800 support level proved to be little or no support with the xao closing out the week at 4787. The bears pushed it lower to 4757 during the day but it was able to recover 30 points before close.

The next support level is 4675. Fasten you seatbelts everyone, we are flying through some turbulence at the moment and our direction is less certain.