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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=613895&viewfull=1#post613895
Another excellent call by The Master!:bier:

XAO110316.gif
The Feb top is looking suspiciously like a ‘failed 5th wave’ double top.

Yesterday’s wave 3 is 262% of wave 1 and the computer says this is part of a downward sequence.

If so, the XAO should now retrace to 4715 – 4760, then wave 5 could extend down to 4100 (although 4500 seems more likely).

Alternatively, this could have been just a 1 month ABC correction in the upmove, but that seems unlikely since we’ve now gone below wave 1 and that’s not supposed to happen in the cash markets.

As always, I look forward to The Master’s next contribution to confirm or correct my own humble interpretation.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
If my prefered count is right, we are probably at or very near this bottom and will rebound into a wave iii of 3 which should be a decent push into new post GFC highs.
Click to expand...

Ok, I'm happy to call the bottom in! :cool:

I still can't see or forsee and FA reason why this is 3 waves on 5.

Anyone willing to share their reasoning for going down, down, deeper down? :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We've seen a 50% retrace in this move now, so I guess that is a positive sign for those long.

I still have concerns about those power generating things causing problems up north though. The media may be getting bored with them, but the problem probably won't go away in a hurry, and could get considerably worse.

And then there's this:
'Military strikes on Libya within hours: France'

I hope the bottom is in, but not overly confident.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Forget about the power and nuclear issues. They don't really change things too much. Lybia and Bahrain are bigger problems because of the effect on oil price. Japan selling us bonds to pay for reconstruction and national debt is another possible cause for instability. But an even bigger potential problem is the fed pre-announcing that there is no plan to extend qe2.

Difficult for me to feel fully bullish under these scenarios.

But we are at very interesting point on the chart that's for sure.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I read through the week that a lot of investment money was being pulled out of the share markets and put into bonds following the escalation of the Nuclear Power station crisis.

The crisis is continuing to escalate. The xao fell through the support level of 4650 before it bounced. Is this a genuine bounce or will we drop further on more bad news?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Party's over.
Should be short indexes.
Europe not pretty.
Sell the retracements.

I expect this move to finish around 4500

Click to expand


View attachment 41539
Click to expand...

If your long STILL Sell the retracements! (Sell out to minimize loss on UP DAYS at around 4700).
from here to 4711 I expect to see some Up followed by volatility which will see consolidation for sometime.
The low is in for a while but I personally wouldn't be holding a great deal O/N
This will now form wave 4 followed by a final wave 5 down. The deeper this move up goes the longer the wave 4/5 will take to develop.

Hit and Run team!
Short on the ups and long on the negative days towards the low.
Dont trade in the MIDDLE if the price isn't at an extreme 4477-4500 (Retracements for hit and run longs) or 4700 ish for short trade setups.
This will in my veiw give least risk setups.

Be patient

Click to expand


.XJO March 11.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Tech,

A question if I may -
From your attachment 41539, how did you calculate a drop to around 4550 level ?
Thanks in anticipation.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Giday tech/a
Something is not right with the vertical price tape on your chart above (assuming it is the XAO), the W.5 high should read 5032 on 17th Feb.

My wave 4 projections below, its met the minimum, likely area of resistance is around 4750 with a maximum area around 4800.

Just my :2twocents

(click to expand)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
Giday tech/a
Something is not right with the vertical price tape on your chart above (assuming it is the XAO), the W.5 high should read 5032 on 17th Feb.
Click to expand...

Disregard tech/a, I just worked it out, your chart is the XJO :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This has probably been asked enough times, but how problematic is manipulation like algorithmic tradning to charting?

I suppose normally there is a considered tolerance taken into account to minimise its effect, even if wide scale, but I understand it's almost negligible at this time as things are looking volatile.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

bbker said:
This has probably been asked enough times, but how problematic is manipulation like algorithmic tradning to charting?

I suppose normally there is a considered tolerance taken into account to minimise its effect, even if wide scale, but I understand it's almost negligible at this time as things are looking volatile.
Click to expand...


Becoming more of a problem I believe with Currencies and the very liquid Futs.

Noddy.
Pretty easy The expensive software plotted a nice Purple and turquoise line right there.

Its also around 61.8% retracement of the whole up move from May last year.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I have been waiting for a nice weekly retrace to switch my super out of cash. Im reading mixed views about this one. I like the weekly pinbar that has printed off the 50/61 fib level and previous SR level but when I zoom out I dont really like how strong the resistance looks at 5000 and how strong the down move was. So Im in 2 minds as to switch or sit...therefore I'll probably sit.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Looks as though the 4700 ish analysis for this leg up
may well play out.
looking to see if this gap on the SPI this morning holds.
I expect Europe and US to come off a little tonight.
There always seems to be an exhaustive move that preceeds price and we have seen a few lately.
My bias is now bearish from analysis.
4700+ would alter my view.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Advanced Get

http://www.esignal.com/advancedget/features.aspx
Click to expand...

Eeek - that is expensive :) Do you have any recommended reading that would help decide if such a system is for me or not? I'm still educating myself. I'd rather get up to some sort of understanding prior to embarking on any 30 day money back guarantee or the like. But if I could see the ROI on the money. I assume you have found the system useful for your trading?

My current position is really that I'd like to be able to combine value investing with better market timing. I've noticed that I could greatly improve my returns if i was able to jump in and out of my preferred stocks at strategic points - so if such timing is possible then I'd like to partake in it. Seems like it's one of the prime advantages of being a small investor as opposed to a monster fund, so I might as well try and take advantage of that.

Alex.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I dont think you have to buy the software.
Just need to know the basics of wave structure.
You can then apply it to your analysis to get an "idea" where you are in the life of a move. Then application of your other analysis (In my case Volume and Price structure)
to complete the decision making process.

I think there is a lot of basic Elliott Wave info on that site I gave out.

Go through the PDF's here and grab what you want.

http://search.esignal.com/search?en...Signal&site=default_collection&q=Elliott+Wave
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
I dont think you have to buy the software.
Just need to know the basics of wave structure.
You can then apply it to your analysis to get an "idea" where you are in the life of a move. Then application of your other analysis (In my case Volume and Price structure)
to complete the decision making process.

I think there is a lot of basic Elliott Wave info on that site I gave out.

Go through the PDF's here and grab what you want.

http://search.esignal.com/search?en...Signal&site=default_collection&q=Elliott+Wave
Click to expand...

Thanks will do.

Alex.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Looks as though the 4700 ish analysis for this leg up
may well play out.
looking to see if this gap on the SPI this morning holds.
I expect Europe and US to come off a little tonight.
There always seems to be an exhaustive move that preceeds price and we have seen a few lately.
My bias is now bearish from analysis.
4700+ would alter my view.
Click to expand...

Agree, any weakness below 4700 this week would not bode well for a strong bullish recovery.

But, if this week ends above 4840, a nice morning star (Weekly Chart) I'm extremely bullish again. :bier:... I think I can feel it coming on now. :D
 

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