tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
As expected
As expected
XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well, a 1.5% fall in the US overnight has the triger fingers loosed up a bit, but I still don't see a major crash.
I'm still happy with my previous forcast with an intermediate wave 1 now complete and a wave 2 in progress before a larger degree wave 3 up kicks in. There is a fairly strong support just above the 50% fib retracement which should hold.
It's interesting that precious metals gained over 2% in AUD and the AUD/USD fell about 1% and although other base metals were largely unmoved, I suspect the market will trend down further with maybe the exception of precious metal stocks.
Well, a 1.5% fall in the US overnight has the triger fingers loosed up a bit, but I still don't see a major crash.
I'm still happy with my previous forcast with an intermediate wave 1 now complete and a wave 2 in progress before a larger degree wave 3 up kicks in. There is a fairly strong support just above the 50% fib retracement which should hold.
It's interesting that precious metals gained over 2% in AUD and the AUD/USD fell about 1% and although other base metals were largely unmoved, I suspect the market will trend down further with maybe the exception of precious metal stocks.
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Re: XAO Analysis
ok we have soaked up some time here and the time for explorative price action is here . havent been able to get significantly above the 50 of this move down . still holding trendline support but its looking shaky . 2 key refence levels circled on daily . if we break recent lows i can see the scenario on the 2 hour getting a chance to play out . an AB = CD looks pretty basic and doable , first couple days next week will set the trend imo . price action is king , be dynamic thinker as this market volatility will test both biases . references always key
ok we have soaked up some time here and the time for explorative price action is here . havent been able to get significantly above the 50 of this move down . still holding trendline support but its looking shaky . 2 key refence levels circled on daily . if we break recent lows i can see the scenario on the 2 hour getting a chance to play out . an AB = CD looks pretty basic and doable , first couple days next week will set the trend imo . price action is king , be dynamic thinker as this market volatility will test both biases . references always key
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tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Still as expected for me.
No reason to think that the original analysis indicating an end to this current up trend isn't still valid
Still as expected for me.
No reason to think that the original analysis indicating an end to this current up trend isn't still valid
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
So, that was a bottom down there? I thought that was still a 3..
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Re: XAO Analysis
Not good.
Parabolic SaR busted this afternoon. Looking like at least a 50 point drop tomorrow.
Not good.
Parabolic SaR busted this afternoon. Looking like at least a 50 point drop tomorrow.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Based on my charts, which I was too lazy to post up, sorry. Lots of negative signs piling up together basically.
Any of the index traders tell me what happened just then at 11am???
Based on my charts, which I was too lazy to post up, sorry. Lots of negative signs piling up together basically.
Any of the index traders tell me what happened just then at 11am???
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Re: XAO Analysis
Do you use it on the XJO or SPI?
Persoanlly I find it a reverse indicator.
Low's in imo
Do you use it on the XJO or SPI?
Persoanlly I find it a reverse indicator.
Low's in imo
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Re: XAO Analysis
XAO. XJO turned a day earlier but basically identical.
Longish periods. .017, .017 It's just curve-fitted but there's no rules against that.
XAO. XJO turned a day earlier but basically identical.
Longish periods. .017, .017 It's just curve-fitted but there's no rules against that.
skc
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Re: XAO Analysis
Turns out to be a pretty good guess...
Low for today or this week?
We've went down 2.5% with the US being flat. We are in trouble if the US plays catch up at some stage...
Turns out to be a pretty good guess...
Low for today or this week?
We've went down 2.5% with the US being flat. We are in trouble if the US plays catch up at some stage...
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well i thought it was lunch but have to extend that to end of day
Major sell portfolio in the mkt. Hitting everything and anything.
Today should be weekly lows, although tomorrow morning gap down squeeze up is the play if US gets smashed tonight.
Well i thought it was lunch but have to extend that to end of day
Major sell portfolio in the mkt. Hitting everything and anything.
Today should be weekly lows, although tomorrow morning gap down squeeze up is the play if US gets smashed tonight.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
theres the completion of ab = cd , some more of the easy money done . least i got some analysis ;-)
my daily range extension calls for move <4650 , see what develops
theres the completion of ab = cd , some more of the easy money done . least i got some analysis ;-)
my daily range extension calls for move <4650 , see what develops
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tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
You short SPI Ginar?
You short SPI Ginar?
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Forgive me, but aren't they two different counts resulting in potentially vastly different medium term outcomes?
I mean, if the March low was the 5, then this is a minor correction and we've seen a 1.
If the March low was a 3 and we've just seen a 4 that's a significant difference.
Is there any way to tell which it is, or will we only know after it's all unfolded?
Maybe I have the charts mixed up?
Which one hasn't changed Tech?
Forgive me, but aren't they two different counts resulting in potentially vastly different medium term outcomes?
I mean, if the March low was the 5, then this is a minor correction and we've seen a 1.
If the March low was a 3 and we've just seen a 4 that's a significant difference.
Is there any way to tell which it is, or will we only know after it's all unfolded?
Maybe I have the charts mixed up?
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Kenna's
Everything is panning out as shown.
The first chart eventually finished in a wave 5
The second was showing a change in sentiment--and thats where we are.
Kenna's
Everything is panning out as shown.
The first chart eventually finished in a wave 5
The second was showing a change in sentiment--and thats where we are.
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
I asked not longer after the potential March 09 'bottom' if it could be THE bottom, or if it was THE W4 EW was calling at the time.
You did at one point provide an alternate count with the March low as THE bottom. I'm not sure if you did that manually or with AGET.
Is that now off the table according to EW?
It's a rather interesting situation for me. Being a skeptic of the utility of EW but wanting to understand it, and how to apply it, this seems to be a very good test in the bigger picture.
Sorry Tech, I thought the first chart finished in a very big 3 at the bottom. Indicating that the last top might have been a big 4 on the way to the last leg of this big correction, which has been a long time call from EW.
I asked not longer after the potential March 09 'bottom' if it could be THE bottom, or if it was THE W4 EW was calling at the time.
You did at one point provide an alternate count with the March low as THE bottom. I'm not sure if you did that manually or with AGET.
Is that now off the table according to EW?
It's a rather interesting situation for me. Being a skeptic of the utility of EW but wanting to understand it, and how to apply it, this seems to be a very good test in the bigger picture.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
I'm actually with you on this,the ONLY way I got my head around it was to understand and EXPECT wave counts to alter until they are confirmed.
This is the hardest thing to come to terms with as we all want to have a definitive answer.
I use it to see where we are in terms of maturity of a move.
When I see the same or very similar counts occurring in lots of stocks and other indexes sure as hell there is going to be a culmination.
That happened in 2007.Low in March and now.
I'm actually with you on this,the ONLY way I got my head around it was to understand and EXPECT wave counts to alter until they are confirmed.
This is the hardest thing to come to terms with as we all want to have a definitive answer.
I use it to see where we are in terms of maturity of a move.
When I see the same or very similar counts occurring in lots of stocks and other indexes sure as hell there is going to be a culmination.
That happened in 2007.Low in March and now.