XAO Technical Analysis

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm always long compared to you it seems.

uh?

ahha gotya....yeah sorry m8 , it does seem my comments of late always seem to disagree with yours ...... take a bow, because at least i find 90% of your comments worth reading and hence me commenting ...... currently i have 77% of ASF members on ignore so hence the lack of ppl i argue with these days ......hahahah

lol i always figure everyone else is wrong anyways

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

just thinking out loud , range extension repetition , last one retraced to the 50 . the break of this weeks range is likely to set the bias for a week or so imo . im looking for an eod close break of range fwiw

 

[tinhat]

Re: XAO Analysis

just thinking out loud , range extension repetition , last one retraced to the 50 . the break of this weeks range is likely to set the bias for a week or so imo . im looking for an eod close break of range fwiw

While you are thinking out loud... what does fwiw mean please?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

what does fwiw mean please?

Followed with intense waving. :bekloppt:

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

For What Its Worth

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

While you are thinking out loud... what does fwiw mean please?

some people seek answers , some people ask them

google is your friend

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

I was struck by how similar the DJIA chart of the ten years from 1997 was so similar in shape and indicators to the XAO ten years from 2001, right down to the indicators. It really highlights how important an XAO break and hold above 5,000 has been.

Also, the higher the DJIA powers above 12,000, the less the 'giant-head-and-shoulders' theory will be relevant.

So it's interesting times. Long, staying long.

 

[starman45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Only slight loss of momentum, imho.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

just thinking out loud , range extension repetition , last one retraced to the 50 . the break of this weeks range is likely to set the bias for a week or so imo . im looking for an eod close break of range fwiw

closed outside the range today circled swing low key from here with last weeks high the upper key

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Party's over.
Should be short indexes.
Europe not pretty.
Sell the retracements.

I expect this move to finish around 4500

Click to expand

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Party's over.
Should be short indexes.
Europe not pretty.
Sell the retracements.

I expect this move to finish around 4500

Yeah, this is closer to my mark from a couple of pages earlier.

The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.

Europe aside, if the middle east sorts itself out for democratic elections in the next few weeks or months, I can see the market getting excited about future prospects for growth and maybe even breaking of the oil cartel to set up the larger degree wave 3 that I'm looking for, that may go to record highs. I'll post a chart when I get more time.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Party's over.
Should be short indexes.
Europe not pretty.
Sell the retracements.

I expect this move to finish around 4500

Click to expand


View attachment 41539

I got the invite a week ago , reckon this party half done . whilst 4500 isnt impossible i'll deal with the key levels as they occur , rarely are markets linear therefore my thinking is a little more dynamic than most

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

I got the invite a week ago , reckon this party half done . whilst 4500 isnt impossible i'll deal with the key levels as they occur , rarely are markets linear therefore my thinking is a little more dynamic than most

Didn't say it was going straight there but nothing would surprise me particularly if the US comes off strongly.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

closed outside the range today circled swing low key from here with last weeks high the upper key

structure developing a little faster than i thought it would , getting into key support levels here . pretty vertical move down , normally expect a pause/ snap back here . the easy money done , little harder from here

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

structure developing a little faster than i thought it would , getting into key support levels here . pretty vertical move down , normally expect a pause/ snap back here . the easy money done , little harder from here

zoom out for look at daily

i like to look for common ranges , had a couple 300-330 point retraces previously so if we lose the trendline support on daily the 4600 area becomes the next point of interest for me .

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Small ords down less than XAO today. -20 vs -34. Odd?

We're back sitting right on that trend line again. This is now the 6th touch. Amazing.

XAO still above SAR(.017,.017) which has been a reasonable guide historically.

Three days of red with successive higher volume hasn't been seen yet. Again, this has been a reasonably useful guide historically for the start of bear runs.

XAO not following DJIA sell off with anywhere near the same ferocity.

Summary: Obviously bearish, but mixed signals on our market.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Summary: Obviously bearish, but mixed signals on our market.

Is it the more often support is tested the more likely that it will be broken?

Or is that some version of Gambler's Fallacy?

One thing that looks important is if that support is positively broken.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Small ords down less than XAO today. -20 vs -34. Odd?

We're back sitting right on that trend line again. This is now the 6th touch. Amazing.

XAO still above SAR(.017,.017) which has been a reasonable guide historically.

Three days of red with successive higher volume hasn't been seen yet. Again, this has been a reasonably useful guide historically for the start of bear runs.

XAO not following DJIA sell off with anywhere near the same ferocity.

Summary: Obviously bearish, but mixed signals on our market.

We are likely to see 3 waves in this down move this is A of ABC.
So its severity will be dependent on how far A goes down
The depth of B correction
as C will be around the length of A.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

We are likely to see 3 waves in this down move this is A of ABC.
So its severity will be dependent on how far A goes down
The depth of B correction
as C will be around the length of A.

Is this linked to the last EW W5 projected top?

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

structure developing a little faster than i thought it would , getting into key support levels here . pretty vertical move down , normally expect a pause/ snap back here . the easy money done , little harder from here

got our pause /snapback , retraced 50 of move down , daily trendline support intact . for ongoing bearish bias wouldnt like to see it get above the 61.8 . one things certain volatility is back and as a trader its what i like to see