XAO Technical Analysis

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)

Nah, you need scary looking charts GG.

(click to expand)

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

The recent bullish run appears to be running out of puff. The market is drifting sideways and is in danger of breaking out of the lower channel marker.
Recent activity (attributed to the unrest in Egypt and fears of the closure of the suez canal ?) indicates there is an element in the market looking for any excuse to withdraw their finances at the current level, for fear of being caught in any retrace of substance. Ironicaly it is their approach that could trigger a retrace.
Fortunately, the housing, employment and consumer confidence indicators are showing glimmers of improvement which continues to underpin the djia and hopefully will propel the xao to and above 5000 (just as a precautionary measure, pack a parachute).

 

[starman45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Important are the conquest of 4910 and the consolidation of this area in order to go towards 4950ish.

 

[starman45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Target hit and good close above resistance.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Still pretty un eventful in my view.
Nothing showing.
Weekly Chart

Click to expand or wear Coke Bottle Glasses.

Is your count in jeopardy if 5000 broached?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm just a chartist, but it looks like a downtrend, with no sign of consolidation or absence of sellers.

gg

 

[drsmith]

Re: XAO Analysis

.......it looks like a downtrend.....

Your looking at it upside down.

Still, if China stumbles, it will change direction rather quick.

 

[starman45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hit also 5000 (psychological level).
The momentum is slightly attenuated.
Uptrend.
Chart daily.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

xao

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

xao

Can you do a four yearly with the horizontal as well?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Gets a bit small and hard to see kennas, but I agree there are a few touches on the horizontals of 5000 and 4900. Week periodicity shows it.

weekly.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Gets a bit small and hard to see kennas, but I agree there are a few touches on the horizontals of 5000 and 4900. Week periodicity shows it.

weekly.

On balance of probabilities this zone seems very important to me. If it goes through, then we may have seen the 'bottom' and the EW'ers have been generally wrong. If it fails and starts making some lower lows, then ouch. Still, this could be just another false attack at breaking the sideways zone and we continue in limbo for some time..

So, it could go up, or down, or sideways.

You can quote me on that!

 

[barney]

Re: XAO Analysis

So, it could go up, or down, or sideways.

You can quote me on that!

Lol ..... Way off the mark Kennas.

It can only possibly go sideways, or down, or up! Your analysis is obviously flawed:

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

daily and hourly

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Still going no where until that zone of resistance is broken. Until then, it has potential to break significantly lower as the EW'ers are selling. Until we break up or down it seems that we are just in a holding pattern. If we have hit an EW W4 and go down then it's a very significant move according to the EW'ers. Like, back to the bottom, PLUS! Breaking up doesn't seem to be too bad a thing though.

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

Still going no where until that zone of resistance is broken. Until then, it has potential to break significantly lower as the EW'ers are selling. Until we break up or down it seems that we are just in a holding pattern. If we have hit an EW W4 and go down then it's a very significant move according to the EW'ers. Like, back to the bottom, PLUS! Breaking up doesn't seem to be too bad a thing though.

Interesting that the world markets are in 'dual speed' mode.

China, HK, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Brazil are all in pretty significant downtrends.

US and Europe are going one way North.

Australia's kind of caught in-between... somethings got to give.

Yeah, so I agree with the up, down or sideways analysis.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting that the world markets are in 'dual speed' mode.

China, HK, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Brazil are all in pretty significant downtrends.

US and Europe are going one way North.

Australia's kind of caught in-between... somethings got to give.

Yeah, so I agree with the up, down or sideways analysis.

fence sitting the easy thing , looks overextended to me so i see the risk being long here myself . naturally regardless of probabilities the possibilities need to be managed .

this wont help the bullish bias .... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-puts-australias-big-four-banks-on-review-2011-02-16

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

fence sitting the easy thing

Yep, when it's required.

I don't see any reason to jump on a bull or a bear by the charts.

Very happy on a fence.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very happy on a fence.

while your pulling splinters out ya a$$ others view this level as a bewty for a low % loss area for some long overdue shorts ...... i pointed out an entry on BHP recently in million dollar thread....i also have others
I also hold some longs but have no reason to let them go as yet either.

could be wrong , often am but me personally view this area as a doozy of a low risk area .....

but hey thats just me and i tend to nip things in the bud fairly quick if wrong rather than try and catch a speeding train once its going.( to me it makes stoploss levels a lil more murky.but hey thats just me)

each to there own

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

while your pulling splinters out ya a$$ others view this level as a bewty for a low % loss area for some long overdue shorts

I wouldn't be long right now either, yes.

Depends on your time frame too I suppose.

One man's short is another man's long.

I'm always long compared to you it seems.