XAO Technical Analysis

Gringotts Bank · 7 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

All eyes now starting to turn to that support trendline, begun in March 2009.

It's been respected 4 times already which in my mind is an awful lot. I just can't see it being bounced off a 5th time, not with sentiment the way it is at the moment.

Looks like we are going to creep towards it, rather than drop. If support fails, 4646 is the likely test point.

Amazing the lack of matching between the US markets and ours at the moment.

Broadway · 7 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Gringotts Bank said:
Amazing the lack of matching between the US markets and ours at the moment.

Im stunned by it. (rant coming)
Similar to this happened earlier last year in march, when europe crisis hit the world, ES making new highs around 1220 and spi just running parrallel with the eur straight down, while the ES was going up. Spi totally ignored the ES. In the end the ES came down with the spi and the eur.

But why the spi takes the widening european bond spread so seriously is beyond me.
Its on the other side of the planet, asian markets ignoring it, but we seem so linked to it. I guess its that and the floods that has people spooked, but days where copper and oil both are rising get ignored...
Imo, we should be up near 5500, theres nothing thats seriously wrong with us. I dont get the lack of performance in our markets. Good banks, good miners...whats the problem??

Logique · 7 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Gringotts Bank said:
All eyes now starting to turn to that support trendline, begun in March 2009.
It's been respected 4 times already which in my mind is an awful lot. I just can't see it being bounced off a 5th time, not with sentiment the way it is at the moment.
Looks like we are going to creep towards it, rather than drop. If support fails, 4646 is the likely test point.
Amazing the lack of matching between the US markets and ours at the moment.

Yes can relate to those thoughts GB.

This is a great thread, thanks all contributors. Being honest, and after thinking about it at length, I have no clue about the future of the All Ords.

Ask me to bet the house on it, I'd say a double-dip-ish 4400 range 4500 is entirely possible this year - bearish. But the medium to long term bias being upward - bullish.

2011 a year to stock and sector pick. 2012 probably a better year across the breadth of the Aust market.

ginar · 9 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

interesting juncture here . with negative GDP likely who knows . the fact that last swing high is below previous is meaningful .

Edwood · 10 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
I dont get the lack of performance in our markets. Good banks, good miners...whats the problem??

perhaps the interest rate rises haven taken the wind out of the market for Aus, and added strength to AUD meaning for those offshore, holding the ccy on its own is better (and more liquid) than holding the stock market given potential global risks

Whiskers · 10 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah, I think you're right there Edwood. As I posted earlier I felt the RBA's premptive move to raise rates last November was too premptive.

For the future, given the way those Black Crows on the weekly chart faded and the ensuring Engulfing Bull that set up for another Three Black Crows, but they faded into what looks like a pretty good 'Cup' (shown here on the daily) with the current little decline looking like a good handle, I suspect we might bust through 5,000 before the next significant correction.

The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.

Whiskers · 10 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Yeah, I think you're right there Edwood. As I posted earlier I felt the RBA's premptive move to raise rates last November was too premptive.

For the future, given the way those Black Crows on the weekly chart faded and the ensuring Engulfing Bull that set up for another Three Black Crows, but they faded into what looks like a pretty good 'Cup' (shown here on the daily) with the current little decline looking like a good handle, I suspect we might bust through 5,000 before the next significant correction.

The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.

Ooops, of course that should have been Three White Soldiers.

Nobody spotted it yet!... well I suppose that goes to show nobody understands my musings

ginar · 11 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Yeah, I think you're right there Edwood. As I posted earlier I felt the RBA's premptive move to raise rates last November was too premptive.

For the future, given the way those Black Crows on the weekly chart faded and the ensuring Engulfing Bull that set up for another Three Black Crows, but they faded into what looks like a pretty good 'Cup' (shown here on the daily) with the current little decline looking like a good handle, I suspect we might bust through 5,000 before the next significant correction.

The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.

Hindsite is a 20/20 thing . the RBA are likely to keep rates on hold now as circumstances have changed . This flood disaster is going to have a huge affect on GDP . The reality is in the long term the RBA really have no choice but to keep raising rates imo . RBA owes money to fed , rates are rising for RBA . they lent the banks many billions . these rate rises will/ must be passed onto banks . its just a natural progression that these rates are passed onto consumer . Some of my friends in the bond market tell me we are far from the top of the interest rate cycle , what this means to the market really is of no major concern to me as my horizon is 6 weeks in the future at most but one thing i'll say is id be trying to minimize debt as much as possible if i had any . whilst many australians took advantage of the low rates on offer as consequence of GFC i immediately took strong actions to pay of any debt , the sad thing is this govt influenced push to more debt in a time of crisis caused by excessive debt is ironic in the extreme , they inflated the bubble further rather than letting some out . it will be clear to all in hindsite the follies of these actions but at the moment mainstream australia is blind to the dangers at hand . there is a reason the banks are holding the market back , it will be clear in time . this is probably the wrong place for this but i dont know where else this fits on ASF . whilst i do follow fundementals and economics my primary decisions are based on price action and i suggest everyone does the same for this economic maze we exist in is as clear as mud . spose i better add a chart to justify this posts existance here

the major swing lows and highs are inconslusive atm but the next one likely sets the bias for the next year or so . trendline support still there but those lower swing highs have an ominous look . the primary trend in this time frame is murky at best

Gringotts Bank · 13 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

+52 Ords makes things a bit confusing.

Chart-wise, there's now a risk of an upside breakout from a large symmetrical triangle. Only needs another +50 tomorrow.

Sentiment-wise, I don't buy it. Micro end of the market is totally unwilling. I'll only flip into buy mode if we see arvo buying in this sector.

My experience of symmetrical triangles is that the longer the market waits to decide a breakout (up or down), the less powerful the move. What's that mean - more sideways action? A "nothing" breakout?

ginar · 16 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

key juncture here , previous swing highs key . Trendline support and last swing low make up the other reference points short term . break above 4815 sees 5000 being a magnet . range extension from last swing low fits nicely .

tech/a · 18 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Still pretty un eventful in my view.
Nothing showing.
Weekly Chart

Click to expand or wear Coke Bottle Glasses.

Sean K · 18 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Still pretty un eventful in my view.
Nothing showing.
Weekly Chart

Click to expand or wear Coke Bottle Glasses.

Yeah, still in no man's land but I'm more bullish after the 4500-600 region held up recently.

Multiple areas of resistance on the way up within this zone.

Will be hard to break through that.

So, in conclusion, I have no idea...

ginar · 19 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

ginar said:
key juncture here , previous swing highs key . Trendline support and last swing low make up the other reference points short term . break above 4815 sees 5000 being a magnet . range extension from last swing low fits nicely .

close above 4815 today so we are looking at a breakout , i like to get a couple closes above key for a confirmation

ginar · 19 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

ginar said:
close above 4815 today so we are looking at a breakout , i like to get a couple closes above key for a confirmation

Just zooming out a little to see the next dynamic just above 5200

nomore4s · 19 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Just a gentle reminder to keep this thread about analysis of the XAO, general discussion about the XAO can go in the XAO banter thread.

Thank you

starman45 · 24 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

still rebound from 4860

Boggo · 29 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

A follow up to my post on 4th Dec...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=595604&viewfull=1#post595604

It hit the first W.5 target and stopped in in its tracks, a return to sub 4800 (4770) is now likely.

Just my

(click to expand)

Whiskers · 29 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
A follow up to my post on 4th Dec...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=595604&viewfull=1#post595604

It hit the first W.5 target and stopped in in its tracks, a return to sub 4800 (4770) is now likely.

Just my

(click to expand)

Although my cup (post #8546) is only modestly full, I'll drink to that.

Whiskers said:
The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.

But, I suspect this correction will bring on a more substantial wave 3 for us to catch up with the more heavily artificially stimulated US gains. This depends on my premise that the USD will appreciate quite a bit in the short to medium term now that their domestic economy is looking better and need to get some purchasing power back.

Chart period - 2 years (from bottom of GFC).

Garpal Gumnut · 29 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)

ginar · 29 January 2011

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)

Over 20 years i dont see much relevance in a linear chart and i on the time frame most here look at markets from i see zero relevance but thanks anyway

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