XAO Technical Analysis

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

More Doldrums.

DOW should restest recent highs, which are about 100 points above current levels. So we may piggy back our way up a little further.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, it looks like we're set to tag along for a bit longer.

The US has been busy on the domestic front making hay while the sun shines... pumping and dumping, err that is profiting by selling their bailout share holdings. The latest being their Citigroup stake for a $12B profit.

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

Where'd all the bears go?

Just waiting for New Moon week to end Broadway. Referring to the first post in thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18301 Lunar cycles and market moves.
Yes it all seems a bit New Age, even flakey, but I don't discount anything that might give me an edge.

And the DJIA finished slightly down overnight, looking a little double-toppy to me on daily.

(BTW I'm naturally a Bull, but have been hoping for an XAO retracement leg).

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Critical support is still holding.

This hasn't changed.
Market churning.
Boring

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Things went bullish yesterday evening because of the Obama tax announcement, but i think this was an aboration, sentiment might have turned south.

This was seen in the xao/spi today.

I still think the bad US job numbers I mentioned yesterday are going to have an ongoing effect.

Gold, silver, euro, oil and commodity currencies certainly had a steep fall last night, inverted to the usd rise, ofcourse.

We'll see if the bulls fight back.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Things went bullish yesterday evening because of the Obama tax announcement, but i think this was an aboration, sentiment might have turned south.

This was seen in the xao/spi today.

I still think the bad US job numbers I mentioned yesterday are going to have an ongoing effect.

Gold, silver, euro, oil and commodity currencies certainly had a steep fall last night, inverted to the usd rise, ofcourse.
We'll see if the bulls fight back.

Yeah, I'm with you there.

I think the USDX will define the markets for awhile, primiarily because I think the pressure is getting too great for it to remain too artifically low.

On the TA front that Engulfing Bull Candle did complete last week, albeit off a short down leg, it may be enough of a sign to get us past Xmas without any major drama... or until the US dispose of all their GFC stock holdings. Does anyone know how much they still hold?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the USDX will define the markets for awhile, primiarily because I think the pressure is getting too great for it to remain too artifically low.

LOL Whiskers. You're now a fully fledged risk trade proponent. I guess better late than never.


Yes yes that was then this is now. !! context context.

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like the bulls did fight back off the US 3am lod.
Bulls are a confident bunch lately.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

5000 looks MASSIVE on this chart.

If it goes, have to really question the Mar 09 'not the bottom' low.

Present economic fundamentals have us turning to toast in the next few years I think, so quite the conundrum.

 

[Julia]

Re: XAO Analysis

Present economic fundamentals have us turning to toast in the next few years I think, so quite the conundrum.

In saying this, are you meaning global or Australian fundamentals, Kennas?
The problems in Europe and the US are just being papered over imo.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Although the XAO is currently bouyant and appears to be testing the 5000 level, I believe we are developing a two tiered system, Resources and Non Resources and it is the Resources that are making the xao look better than it really is.
It may not be the best examples but a comparison of RIO and WBC shows the different directions the two tiers are trading atm, particularly since May this year.

 

[malachii]

Re: XAO Analysis

Although I think your point is valid -using WBC is a little false as it is just coming out of it's ex div phase. Not saying your wrong - but maybe just that it is a little "over emphasized" with WBC.

malachii

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Although I think your point is valid -using WBC is a little false as it is just coming out of it's ex div phase. Not saying your wrong - but maybe just that it is a little "over emphasized" with WBC.

malachii

If you compare from May though, WBC is trending sideways/down whereas RIO is trending up...maybe worth putting resources index against financials index?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

If you compare from May though, WBC is trending sideways/down whereas RIO is trending up...maybe worth putting resources index against financials index?

Yeah I agree, I think that's the main struggle that will shape the XAO.

LOL Whiskers. You're now a fully fledged risk trade proponent. I guess better late than never.


Yes yes that was then this is now. !! context context.

Oh and :thankyou: TH.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah I agree, I think that's the main struggle that will shape the XAO.

And while this thread may not be for FA discussion, I think the financials will continue to suffer from wariness of a housing correction given the increasing amount of coverage this possibility is getting in mainstream media...as well as Euro debt concerns

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Isn't the xao/spi always a struggle between banks and miners. I mean, thats all we have really. Nothing else weighs in with any gravity.

Which is good in a way, because I only have to monitor volume on 6 stocks to get hints for spi entries.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Although I think your point is valid -using WBC is a little false as it is just coming out of it's ex div phase. Not saying your wrong - but maybe just that it is a little "over emphasized" with WBC.

malachii

I chose wbc as it is reported to have the highest proportion of it's income derived from mortgages. Which makes it the bank with the highest exposure to the cost of financing those mortgages (using funds raised offshore) and the bank with the highest exposure to the downside effect of any property value corrections.
I could probably have posted a chart based on the overall movement of the finance sector to provide a more general comparison. Unfortunately there isn't an indice for "non-resources". If there were I suspect this would show the same gap as the rio v's wbc, as it would include the retailers which are currently in the doldrums.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Another aspect that we should be wary of over the next month is the "santa claus" rally. I have noticed in the past that the xao tends to go up on lower volumes of turnover in the last few weeks of December and the first 1-2 weeks of January, to be followed by a correction in mid January.

I used to put this down to the possibility the proffesional traders were on holidays at this time of the year and that the share prices snuck up on small retail turnover, end of year xmas optimisum, only to get corrected to market value when the proffesionals came back from holiday.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Crossroads. Yellow line now the dominant factor. Blue parallels still being respected. Lead up only moderately strong, but I favour it to break out upwards.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally I changed into shorts as of yesterday on the SPI and Today on DAX and FTSE.
Still running fairly tight stops though.

As T/H pointed out HSI tanked in arvo session and Gold getting a belt.