I'm wondering what will get hit tomorrow because I had the feeling that the financial slump was mostly priced in but I guess I'm wrong! We don't really have any multinationals as diversified as GE, but oh well, we'll just go down anyway hey.
do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.
looking at the relative price movement on the Oz market it is hard not to see a continuance down to firmer support at the 50% level - over the next six weeks or next six months? sorry don't know.
US PE's are bad (20) and getting worse so a lot of pressure still emerging
Take 2.And what of the increased debt driving profits arguement?
Recession Has Bernanke, Greenspan Agreeing Companies Have Cash
By Rich Miller
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has what Alan Greenspan calls one ``major advantage'' as it falls into a recession: Businesses are in far better financial shape than they were entering the past two contractions.
Corporations outside of financial services -- from Cisco Systems Inc. to Coca-Cola Co. -- have collectively socked away more than half a trillion dollars in cash. They have also reduced short-term debt and cut inventories to record-low levels in relation to sales, leaving them better prepared than in the past to weather a contraction.
``We still have what, at the moment at least, appears to be a reasonably good real economy, as distinct from finance,'' the former Federal Reserve chairman said at an April 8 conference...
Debt as a percentage of net worth for non-financial companies outside of farming was 61.3 in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 68 at the start of the 2001 recession and 93.6 in the 1990- 91 contraction, Fed figures show.
``Cash flows are more than adequate, and the amounts of monies that they need are very readily financed in the weakened credit markets,'' Greenspan said at the April 8 conference.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUv3WCFs__qw&refer=exclusive
But the underlying quality of our banks compared to the US is robust, no bank has reported a net LOSS for as long as the eye can see.I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that anything has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.
I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that anything has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.
Aren't they the fools who forecast such bullish world growth last year?and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.
Aren't they the fools who forecast such bullish world growth last year?
If they say more losses are to come then the sub-prime mess is probably over lol
Babcock and Brown - $22.50 BNB has very little exposure to the sub-prime, and sub-prime was a balloney excuse to dump financial stocks which have done very well anyway. I bought into it as it kept falling. BNB profit surged by 65% as well as giving an improved outlook, if it falls more I'll simply buy, and same if it rises past key resistance levels.
3 big days coming up on the US economic calender:
- Tues = Housing Market Index
- Weds = Consumer Price Index + Industrial Production
- Thurs = Jobless claims
Whats the possible bearing of all these...hmmm
Bearing... probably North... maybe NE.
Blame kauri for keeping me up for that one.:
Have a look at VIX, it's just a tad complacent next to the price action, there is not a lot of fear, just basically reflecting realized volatility... bullish at this point of proceedings.
You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
LOL(g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
Im going to be brave and publicly call a short term bottom.
You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
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