XAO Technical Analysis

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Cant be much more room to move upwards, without positive news, especially in relation to company profits.

People are naturally optimistic, MRC. A lack of unexpected bad news for a reasonable time will allow oportunistic buying to develop.

Love to see around 5,720/30 or so today or tomorow before running out of steam this time to improve probability of a shot well over 6,000 next run up.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is looking a hell of a lot like a crash cycle to me. 5 or so consecutive lower highs now. Momentum slowing at the moment, big sign to take those profits for all those who werent left holding their ballz after the last IR cut.

Cannot see how this could break 6000 without some profitable news or something big!

At best, I think we could see a consolidation or a run to about 5800, assuming most bad news is behind. However, cannot see that. Subprime time lags mean this crisis is nowhere near ending. Jobless rates sure to remain high and with commodities appearing to still have some strength, inflation is sure to be high (especially in relation to oil). Not to mention, flooding the money supply never bodes well for inflation. Unless news on these economic indicators are better than expected (who knows, could be with the way they manipulate their statistics).

However, I sure know which way my money will be as this momentum changes. Either on the short side, in gold or in the bank! Probably all of the above.

Good luck!

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

These are the ultimate questions. What determines a top or bottom before they happen? How do you enter or exit into strength, before the corner happens?

Would it be possible for you to share some of your secrets, Tech/a?

What did you use to determine the middle of March as the right time to buy?

Was it financials hitting a low with volume, or other factors like gold or USD?

SPI and other futures' volume confused me because of expiry/changeover. And then the Easter gap up meant entering longs after easter felt like coming late to the party.

cheers.

No secrets just analysis.

All analysis including mine will ultimately be proven correct or in correct.
People often think technical analysis is meant to be predictive.
Its not its anticipatory. If you look back at the first chart I posted around the 18th I think it was my conclusion that this was nearing a bottom in the current move.I didnt catagorically know but analysis pointed to a possiblility and I was anticipating a bullish move into further analysis,which is yet to be proven.

The trick is what you or any of us do with our analysis.For me it is concerntration on long trades until this move is proven to be over,wether that is where my analysis has anticipated or not is yet to be proven.

As for the type of analysis for me its (longerterm) Elliott. Yes some fundamentals helped falling oil/gold. But not one governing form.
Shorter term its a combination of Elliott,VSA and conventional analysis.

When it comes to application well thats 14 yrs of learning/testing/and applying,hardly practical to write up in a paragraph.

Sorry I cant be of more help.

MRC
Dont know about a crash cycle but definately a longer term corrective move.
Some expect this to last for up to 7 yrs ( before a new high 6880+).

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC
Some expect this to last for up to 7 yrs ( before a new high 6880+).

Where did you read that Tech?

I cannot say I am bullish, however 7 years before a new high. Now that would be a depression!

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Where did you read that Tech?

I cannot say I am bullish, however 7 years before a new high. Now that would be a depression!

It was an Elliott count I saw from a few scources based upon a long term chart (Not sure the timeframe but may have been yearly) that showed a wave 4 corrective move lasting 7 yrs before moving to a new wave 5 which in itself had a projection longer than the wave 3 on that chart (Which is common on indexes).
I didnt keep a copy---should have as it would have generated discussion.
If I come across it I will post it here.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

a wave 4 corrective move lasting 7 yrs before moving to a new wave 5 which in itself had a projection longer than the wave 3 on that chart (Which is common on indexes).

I didnt keep a copy---should have as it would have generated discussion.
If I come across it I will post it here.

Ive never seen an EW chart over nearly that longer timeframe!

Interesting to hear wave 5 in indices is commonly longer than a wave 3.

Sure would generate discussion!

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Advanced Gets Monthly count.



Sorry about the size.
This link migh be better to view.

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c68/sceptik/ASXwave4monthly.gif

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ive never seen an EW chart over nearly that longer timeframe!

FWIW, I think that's where EW works best as a prediction tool, though a blunt instrument to be sure. The Keynesian rabble in charge take the edge off of it with intervention. IMHO.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Keynesian rabble, ha ha, you sure hate those economists eh Wayne!

Tech, cheers for the chart.

Just to confirm, this analysis states wave 4 will end anywhere from where it is currently, to the yellow/red elipse? Isn't wave 4 generally shallow (a retracement of between 30-50%) and forms some kind of a triangle?

Also shouldn't impulse wave 3 be smoother, instead of having a dip of multiple years? Also, in the guidelines, wave 1 & 5 are generally the same length, is this different with indices? And corrective wave 4 retracement hasn't been annotated with any of ABC yet as its still a work in process right?

Cheers

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

2014 lol.

Can we even predict what the market will do tomorrow? :

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Keynesian rabble, ha ha, you sure hate those economists eh Wayne!

Tech, cheers for the chart.

Just to confirm, this analysis states wave 4 will end anywhere from where it is currently, to the yellow/red elipse? Isn't wave 4 generally shallow (a retracement of between 30-50%) and forms some kind of a triangle?

Also shouldn't impulse wave 3 be smoother, instead of having a dip of multiple years? Also, in the guidelines, wave 1 & 5 are generally the same length, is this different with indices? And corrective wave 4 retracement hasn't been annotated with any of ABC yet as its still a work in process right?

Cheers

The elipse is dynamic it will move around with price.
Elliott is a dynamic analysis and this is why so many have a problem with its application. Its far easier for people to deal with finite points and hard and fast rules than it is to deal with fluid ones.

So currently this is what Elliott analysis is telling us.
There are general rules and yes the patterns are still in progress.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

2014 lol.

Can we even predict what the market will do tomorrow? :

Yes.
Up
Down
Or
Neutral

 

[dutchie]

Re: XAO Analysis

Love your analysis there Tech/a.

The one direction we can confidently say that the market can't go is left.

Cheers

dutchie

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliott is a dynamic analysis and this is why so many have a problem with its application. Its far easier for people to deal with finite points and hard and fast rules than it is to deal with fluid ones.

Tell me about it, of all the methods I have studied (though only looked at EW briefly), its probably the hardest. I just find so much creativity goes into EW, when my brain prefers as you say, finite points and hard and fast rules.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Speaking about finite points and something easier to understand, it's probably time I explained one of my key concepts that I was going to explain some time ago, for the market not falling below 5,000 or 4,000 or even below 3,000 as some 'bad' scenerios indicate... the (or at least my) concept of proportion.

The market rose about 520% into the 87 crash.

The 07 bull market rose about 260% to November.

Just looking at the chart I can see that the proportions of 87 and 07 peak markets are so different, so for me, just a fib retracement on this scale isn't enough.

The 87 market gave up about 50% from it's peak.

But, since the 07 peak only rose 1/2 as much in (roughly) the same time period as 87... 260/520 = 1/2, and given the 87 crash was about as bad as it gets, then I would expect the 07 correction to be not worse than about 1/2 of the 87 crash, ie 25%.

So 6873 - 25% = 5155.

That is what I saw and still see as the worst case scenerio... about 5155.

The yellow lines are the long term standard deviation channel... which also played a supporting role.

I'd hate to think I'm backing the wrong horse, so any comment on the logic or maths?... supported by evidence of course. :

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

I have said it a number of times eg below ( underline added )

87 was a bubble



and remember the long term P&F chart I posted a few times ..

enough work is enough work

classic action atm on a small scale

motorway

Why should we be ?

The move since 2003....

Has it been the increase in stock prices that has led people to believe there is a commodity boom ( and hence the move is a bubble that will burst and take prices back down to "where we should be" eg like the tech bubble)

Or has there been a "real fundamental" shift , a real commodity boom that is underpinning the positive sentiment
and so the price rises since 2003 have been warranted .



true .. But what is the real action and what is the (over ) reaction..

Depends on time scale.... ... But I think on time Scales that matter to investors ..

It is the current reaction that is the over reaction...........

This is esp the case with the XAO. I think other markets are differently placed.


bubble dynamics are often in play when prices grow greater than at an exponential rate ( so you see log charts that look like arithmetic charts usually do )................

I think our market is naturally caught up in a bit of contagion ..
It stopped going up and that always catches people out so a bit of unwinding..

But there is no bubble to burst..only some resting and a bit of a step back ( Which is not good if you have very large margin loan etc )

No Bubble is an important point..




Thoughts for discussion

motorway

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Rather than a crash analysis suggests that overtime the 50% retracement (Of the main wave 5 move) could occur.

There could be a prolonged period of lack luster price action.

Even so moves in the index of 1000+ points again overtime will provide opportunity for those working in shorter timeframes.

However those who hold longterm or those who are investors---I believe will be frustrated no end by the whipsawing of their capital bases with no appreciable growth.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Rather than a crash analysis suggests that overtime the 50% retracement (Of the main wave 5 move) could occur.

There could be a prolonged period of lack luster price action.

Even so moves in the index of 1000+ points again overtime will provide opportunity for those working in shorter timeframes.

However those who hold longterm or those who are investors---I believe will be frustrated no end by the whipsawing of their capital bases with no appreciable growth.

I think at these junctures

( emerging ) relative strength analysis will be important

Not based on points in time ( wrong ) .
But points of interest..

motorway

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I have said it a number of times eg below ( underline added )

87 was a bubble



and remember the long term P&F chart I posted a few times ..

enough work is enough work

classic action atm on a small scale

motorway

Yes, I remember, motorway.

Seems nothing has happened to change your position either eh!

I'm being a bit provocative picking a bottom, but I'm curious about what people think about the market holding above 5,000 closer to 6,000 in the short to medium term, say to the end of the year... a bit of a mid term review if you like, such as tech/a and motorways thoughts.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Halted at long term resistance.

But still potential break from the downtrend.

Might look a little different on a semilog, but not too much.

Was that a bottom?

hmmmmmm