Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis

Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value. I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down. If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's. ColB
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's.
Click to expand...

All just personal opinions/guesses i.e. not investment advice. for all you know we haven't even $50,ooo between us. :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
My Crystal ball is saying UP. Some particular aggressive buying today on the SPI. Not your usual local swingers playing the game today. Would not be surprised to see the highest weekly close in 10 Weeks come Friday.
How's that for a prediction?
Click to expand...

I agree TH.

Todays bar looks quite promising, strong up day, close at the high, increasing volume after Fridays low vol down day.

In an earlier post I wanted to see some support around the 5350-5400 area for an on going bullish view, we seem to have got that.

Now need to overcome the resistance at 5700, but atm it looks promising, but as we all know that could change tomorrow.

PS - Would still expect 5200 to be tested at some stage, but bullish for the moment.
 

Attachments

  • xao_ax20jul07_to_02may08.png
    xao_ax20jul07_to_02may08.png
    20.6 KB · Views: 240
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
I agree TH.

Todays bar looks quite promising, strong up day, close at the high, increasing volume after Fridays low vol down day.

In an earlier post I wanted to see some support around the 5350-5400 area for an on going bullish view, we seem to have got that.

Now need to overcome the resistance at 5700, but atm it looks promising, but as we all know that could change tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I concur.

But, these EW's are a concern re medium term outlook. As per a conversation with tech/a earlier in thread, it seems we need to get a bit over 6,000 this leg up to reduce the EW prospect for their low below 5,000.

I'm still thinking up toward 6,000 + for a couple or three weeks and...

PS - Would still expect 5200 to be tested at some stage, but bullish for the moment.
Click to expand...

another low, but not lower low about late May.

I'm still bullish for the rest of this year, but timing of kick is dependent on when the USD strengthens a bit. I'm thinking the USD/EUR may have to pop up to 1.62/3 to precipitate this.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
Click to expand...

I don't know if the bad news is completely priced in or not, but I do know the bad news is not having the same effect it was. So I would have to guess it has been priced in to some extent.

We will need some thing new to get us to a new low I would think, and I'm sure it's not far away (just for all you bears:D).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Not the XAO butt... if you tink the 200 follows the SP... finely balanced.. as opposed to myself who is finely unbalanced.. I am told..

Cheers
............Kauri
 

Attachments

  • s+p.gif
    s+p.gif
    18.5 KB · Views: 212
Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value. I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down. If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's. ColB
Click to expand...

Cannot give advice, I trade on a day to day basis. Price action, so I do not believe in predictions (though like all, I do like to make them :D). But more just for the fun, I never trade them if price does not go according to plan.

4800 is based on one simple premise, company profits. F/A at it's finest and I tend to agree. When this could be hit, no idea.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value. I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down. If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's. ColB
Click to expand...

Perhaps hold on for a little longer because the buyers have seemed to taken back control as of yesterday. Today that 5,600 level was defended quite well... and looking at the US, same story, the buyers have taken control and defended it so far. A good close below the 5,600 level might be a time to cash in (a good close meaning a 50 - 100 point close below, that way you avoid a possible down fake).... :2twocents goodluck:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. ColB
Click to expand...

1. Because the fundamentals depend on company profits. If there is bad news to come, as insiders get it prices will drop.
2. Because the cashflow depends on whether investors as a whole are entering or leaving the market. Cash at 8%+ will keep some people out (including me).
3. Because the charts say the trend is down. There is no bottom (yet); there is resistance overhead around 5700-5900 and support at 5200; and no-one knows which will hold.
4. Because the known bad news is priced in, but the unknown bad news yet to come is not. The US markets are levitating against a general downturn. I believe a major drop in the US would see our 5200 level fail, and 4800 is the next natural target.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
2. Because the cashflow depends on whether investors as a whole are entering or leaving the market. Cash at 8%+ will keep some people out (including me).
Click to expand...

Remember, however, that the cash rate in the US is next to zero, and the XAO is still following the US market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.:D
Click to expand...

One pop coming up, but you will have to wait till monday.... i got to serve the Anzac customers first on Friday, fully booked restaurant so will be closed all day:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ShareIt said:
One pop coming up, but you will have to wait till monday.... i got to serve the Anzac customers first on Friday, fully booked restaurant so will be closed all day:D
Click to expand...

Whoops!! :eek:

OK lets see if I can organize the Big Boyz to make a bang tomorrow. ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.:D
Click to expand...

Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?
 

Attachments

  • dow daily.gif
    dow daily.gif
    16.8 KB · Views: 230
Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?
Click to expand...

Yes its at an important level for sure. Interestingly the open interest on the SPI had a HUGE jump on Friday & Monday to back up my big boyz stepping up theory. Over 22,000 contracts added during that time.

Interesting that the equities vol has dropped off while the Futures has picked up or been constant in the case of the US. Punters been scared off just as we push up? Always hard to figure if a rise on small vol after a big drop is a positive (no more sellers) or a negative (no real conviction from the masses):confused:

In any case I believe that the market has been controlled by the Futures since this meltdown started and for once it looks, just a bit, that the big Futures swingers may have swapped sides.

But you would think the shorts haven't lost control yet. (hows that for a fence sit?)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Always hard to figure if a rise on small vol after a big drop is a positive (no more sellers) or a negative (no real conviction from the masses):confused:
Click to expand...

After a large drop, better to see volume high or pick up on narrow ranges if consolidating or larger upward ranges if pushing higher again (either way, best to see volume I beleive). Indicates accumulation. From what I have read and observed. The ranges and close are key.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
After a large drop, better to see volume high or pick up on narrow ranges if consolidating or larger upward ranges if pushing higher again (either way, best to see volume I beleive). Indicates accumulation. From what I have read and observed. The ranges and close are key.
Click to expand...

Yes BUT,

Has the accumulation happened on the drop? A meltdown like we have been through has shaken the weak and sent them packing. Who is left. The un-leveraged, patient and strong. Have they been on the end of a bargain? Time will tell.

Motorway etc would maybe able to explain things better. But have we had accumulation or capitulation or distribution on this drop. And who has been on the other end. :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Some possible short term weakness for this evening??
Click to expand...

I find myself agreeing with you again, WP.

I've been thinking we won't kick on too hard until next week after the FOMC meet and probably top out this leg up in early May.

I see you have a 5 there, so if this wave is toppy, how many wavelets :eek: (if that is the right term) in a sub wave down can we expect... in a week?
 
Top