XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
- Start date
Whiskers
It's a small world
- Joined
- 21 August 2007
- Posts
- 3,266
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
I think others probably think so too... but, I'm (fairly) confidently calling it.
I'm surprised there hasn't been a crowd climbing all over the rational of my main (worst case scenario) technical calc's.
I think it's hard to fault because as motorway highlights, this time is not a bubble.
The markets had hit the top of their short term cycle and were about due for a sideways spell or a bit of a retrace... as indicated by stockastics.
So for me a little negative news will be amplified because the trend has just turned down as opposed to a few days ago headlines were saying that the market didn't seem to care about bad news, it still went up.
I'm fairly confident we won't see a lower low and I think another small Fed rate cut is still on, and will be the que for the US market to kick up, most likely to a new higher high.
I'm also still confident the USD will recover a bit in the near term (few months) as soon as the credit issues will allow pumping it up a bit and that will be the key to our market kicking on in earnest again.
Was that a bottom?
hmmmmmm
I think others probably think so too... but, I'm (fairly) confidently calling it.
I'm surprised there hasn't been a crowd climbing all over the rational of my main (worst case scenario) technical calc's.
I think it's hard to fault because as motorway highlights, this time is not a bubble.
The markets had hit the top of their short term cycle and were about due for a sideways spell or a bit of a retrace... as indicated by stockastics.
So for me a little negative news will be amplified because the trend has just turned down as opposed to a few days ago headlines were saying that the market didn't seem to care about bad news, it still went up.
I'm fairly confident we won't see a lower low and I think another small Fed rate cut is still on, and will be the que for the US market to kick up, most likely to a new higher high.
I'm also still confident the USD will recover a bit in the near term (few months) as soon as the credit issues will allow pumping it up a bit and that will be the key to our market kicking on in earnest again.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Re: XAO Analysis
And the world will live in peace and famine will be eradicated.
This is for the archives.
Oh and
S-t-o-c-h-a-s-t-i-c-s
And the world will live in peace and famine will be eradicated.
This is for the archives.
Oh and
S-t-o-c-h-a-s-t-i-c-s
Re: XAO Analysis
Hey All,
I know this is for the XAO but considering that we get most of our lead from the US, I think we have a possible bear trap set coming into Monday / Tuesday...
The options exp. is this week and Friday (yesterday) has just seen a big shift in market sentiment to the PUTs, mind you that the volume was reasonably lighter this week on the retracement....
It also looks like we have a possible inverted head and shoulders on the DOW starting from 1st Jan... up until now the market has been shaking off all bad news, so for this sell off to happen seems very much like a trap and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a run to the 13,500 mark...
As for a new low.... I wouldn't rule that out just yet, although I don't think it will come just yet either... just a heads up, anyone else share this view?
Hey All,
I know this is for the XAO but considering that we get most of our lead from the US, I think we have a possible bear trap set coming into Monday / Tuesday...
The options exp. is this week and Friday (yesterday) has just seen a big shift in market sentiment to the PUTs, mind you that the volume was reasonably lighter this week on the retracement....
It also looks like we have a possible inverted head and shoulders on the DOW starting from 1st Jan... up until now the market has been shaking off all bad news, so for this sell off to happen seems very much like a trap and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a run to the 13,500 mark...
As for a new low.... I wouldn't rule that out just yet, although I don't think it will come just yet either... just a heads up, anyone else share this view?
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
Re: XAO Analysis
I thought last week would be a turning point downwards for the US, however was quiet impressed with its resilience.
Fridays low close and weakness all day (Monday generally follows on from Friday), is a worry however. Sentiment poll I last saw indicated bulls above 50%.........
Other than the fact it's April, I don't see much more strong seasonality in place until the end of the month and the Fed decision.
Things look in trouble to me. My long positions were pretty much all liquidated on Friday. Only BHP and EQN remain.
See how we go.
Cheers
I thought last week would be a turning point downwards for the US, however was quiet impressed with its resilience.
Fridays low close and weakness all day (Monday generally follows on from Friday), is a worry however. Sentiment poll I last saw indicated bulls above 50%.........
Other than the fact it's April, I don't see much more strong seasonality in place until the end of the month and the Fed decision.
Things look in trouble to me. My long positions were pretty much all liquidated on Friday. Only BHP and EQN remain.
See how we go.
Cheers
Re: XAO Analysis
Thanks for the input
I think there is some positive bias and that would be that the expectations have just been lowered for this week's reporting... What I mean by this is, with GE off the mark, analysts will likely lower the expectations of reporting for companies this week, and if we get a better than expected results from a few of these companies, that will kick start the rally....
Let's see... either way it will be exciting
Thanks for the input
I think there is some positive bias and that would be that the expectations have just been lowered for this week's reporting... What I mean by this is, with GE off the mark, analysts will likely lower the expectations of reporting for companies this week, and if we get a better than expected results from a few of these companies, that will kick start the rally....
Let's see... either way it will be exciting
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
Re: XAO Analysis
Yeh, at least it will be fun!
I seem to have been in synch with the market lately and picking the turning points pretty well. Though, we all know that can't happen too often, so my good run is probably coming to an end
See how long my sentiments last.....
Let's see... either way it will be exciting
Yeh, at least it will be fun!
I seem to have been in synch with the market lately and picking the turning points pretty well. Though, we all know that can't happen too often, so my good run is probably coming to an end
See how long my sentiments last.....
- Joined
- 24 June 2007
- Posts
- 101
- Reactions
- 0
Re: XAO Analysis
I'm still liquid as well - there may be a few good numbers coming out but i'm worried what the banks are going to say when their numbers are reported. If they are bad could see a wave down. I think friday was a turning point for some more losses IMHO.
Itching to see the bottom though.
From bloomberg:
How much more is going to be written down?
I'm still liquid as well - there may be a few good numbers coming out but i'm worried what the banks are going to say when their numbers are reported. If they are bad could see a wave down. I think friday was a turning point for some more losses IMHO.
Itching to see the bottom though.
From bloomberg:
How much more is going to be written down?
- Joined
- 4 February 2006
- Posts
- 564
- Reactions
- 0
Re: XAO Analysis
agree motorway and whiskers, 4yr rise is not a bubble - at least not a traditional one. Oz economy is good so why the savage correction?
solely US based for mine - their engine room has been stuffed for years but propped by international investment there and ongoing support for that investment - so there is the bubble
problem is how far they unwind and how far we are sucked down with them.
our downer has been an exhaustion break and quite savage.
currently in consolidation with still more downside pressure.
do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.
looking at the relative price movement on the Oz market it is hard not to see a continuance down to firmer support at the 50% level - over the next six weeks or next six months? sorry don't know.
US PE's are bad (20) and getting worse so a lot of pressure still emerging
agree motorway and whiskers, 4yr rise is not a bubble - at least not a traditional one. Oz economy is good so why the savage correction?
solely US based for mine - their engine room has been stuffed for years but propped by international investment there and ongoing support for that investment - so there is the bubble
problem is how far they unwind and how far we are sucked down with them.
our downer has been an exhaustion break and quite savage.
currently in consolidation with still more downside pressure.
do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.
looking at the relative price movement on the Oz market it is hard not to see a continuance down to firmer support at the 50% level - over the next six weeks or next six months? sorry don't know.
US PE's are bad (20) and getting worse so a lot of pressure still emerging
Attachments
Re: XAO Analysis
I think banks might have some ugly figures but I also think they will stress more the fact that this is nearing the end of the crisis as they have already done (Meryl Lynch and JP). I personally believe they are pulling legs or don't really know but want to bring stability. So in the short term, the path of least resistance is up.
To add, GE had some bad results which shouldn't have been a great shock considering it was their financial area that was to blame. If all other financial banks are reporting losses then what makes them immune? but the good to take out of it is that expectations this week will not be as high and this could give the boost
I think banks might have some ugly figures but I also think they will stress more the fact that this is nearing the end of the crisis as they have already done (Meryl Lynch and JP). I personally believe they are pulling legs or don't really know but want to bring stability. So in the short term, the path of least resistance is up.
To add, GE had some bad results which shouldn't have been a great shock considering it was their financial area that was to blame. If all other financial banks are reporting losses then what makes them immune? but the good to take out of it is that expectations this week will not be as high and this could give the boost
Re: XAO Analysis
Hi everyone. My first post on this forum and a fantastic wealth of information and knowledge to be found on here!
For what my opinion may be worth -2twocents!? ) I unfortunately believe that we will see the all ords progress lower from here - IMHO the heavy weighting of financials in our Aussie index is going to make this inevitible... Based on the financial's failure to hold their recent gains and the likelihood of further financial fallout to come.
Hi everyone. My first post on this forum and a fantastic wealth of information and knowledge to be found on here!
For what my opinion may be worth -
2twocents!? ) I unfortunately believe that we will see the all ords progress lower from here - IMHO the heavy weighting of financials in our Aussie index is going to make this inevitible... Based on the financial's failure to hold their recent gains and the likelihood of further financial fallout to come.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
- Joined
- 8 September 2006
- Posts
- 7,471
- Reactions
- 4,467
Re: XAO Analysis
Hi Whiskers the XAO rise is not a bubble (I think) but and its a big but the rise has been driven largely by an expansion of credit both here and obviously globally as the perception of a low risk environment prevailed and there was a large amount of spending on what ever.
The perception of the risk environment now at least to me is that its now high risk and until the credit and credit losses are unwound we head lower with bounces along the way.
I cannot see how we will not break the recent low or at the very best bounce around like a yo yo at that level.
We will need to head into another credit expansion of some sort some where before a serious rise is achieved or sustained.
As always only an opinion I don't really expect any of us to actually get the call right but it is a great puzzle I just love markets..........
I think others probably think so too... but, I'm (fairly) confidently calling it.
I'm surprised there hasn't been a crowd climbing all over the rational of my main (worst case scenario) technical calc's.
I think it's hard to fault because as motorway highlights, this time is not a bubble.
The markets had hit the top of their short term cycle and were about due for a sideways spell or a bit of a retrace... as indicated by stockastics.
So for me a little negative news will be amplified because the trend has just turned down as opposed to a few days ago headlines were saying that the market didn't seem to care about bad news, it still went up.
I'm fairly confident we won't see a lower low and I think another small Fed rate cut is still on, and will be the que for the US market to kick up, most likely to a new higher high.
I'm also still confident the USD will recover a bit in the near term (few months) as soon as the credit issues will allow pumping it up a bit and that will be the key to our market kicking on in earnest again.
Hi Whiskers the XAO rise is not a bubble (I think) but and its a big but the rise has been driven largely by an expansion of credit both here and obviously globally as the perception of a low risk environment prevailed and there was a large amount of spending on what ever.
The perception of the risk environment now at least to me is that its now high risk and until the credit and credit losses are unwound we head lower with bounces along the way.
I cannot see how we will not break the recent low or at the very best bounce around like a yo yo at that level.
We will need to head into another credit expansion of some sort some where before a serious rise is achieved or sustained.
As always only an opinion I don't really expect any of us to actually get the call right but it is a great puzzle I just love markets..........
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,006
Re: XAO Analysis
This isn't semi log, but there seems to be a little risk in a H&S setting up here, with a target around the 4500 mark, on a break down.
Having said that, I also think there's a chance that 5150 ish support was a bottom as posted earlier.
Will just depend on how it responds to the S&R lines clearly in the chart.
My natural instincts are expecting support to hold and a break to the upside but that's just hope probably.
Perhaps WPs key time line point around 11 and 21 March was a bottom, and not the top anticipated..
I'm still unsure, but hope the world has woken up to the systemic problems and systems, and things are being put in place to turn things around. Since there's so many bears about, it'll be a time to be bullish again shortly!Hi everyone. My first post on this forum and a fantastic wealth of information and knowledge to be found on here!
For what my opinion may be worth -
This isn't semi log, but there seems to be a little risk in a H&S setting up here, with a target around the 4500 mark, on a break down.
Having said that, I also think there's a chance that 5150 ish support was a bottom as posted earlier.
Will just depend on how it responds to the S&R lines clearly in the chart.
My natural instincts are expecting support to hold and a break to the upside but that's just hope probably.
Perhaps WPs key time line point around 11 and 21 March was a bottom, and not the top anticipated..
Attachments
Re: XAO Analysis
That's the key point, the comparison is of little value and therefore the analysis. The bubble that those can't see or choose not to acknowledge is the massive bubble in credit that has underpinned an increasing dependency on debt to fuel consumption and investment that in turn has driven record high and unsustainable profit margins for corporations. Australians and the Australian economy have been eager participants and thus will not be immune from reversion to the mean.
That's the key point, the comparison is of little value and therefore the analysis. The bubble that those can't see or choose not to acknowledge is the massive bubble in credit that has underpinned an increasing dependency on debt to fuel consumption and investment that in turn has driven record high and unsustainable profit margins for corporations. Australians and the Australian economy have been eager participants and thus will not be immune from reversion to the mean.
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
Re: XAO Analysis
Yeh, agree, this is what will ultimately drive any move in the long-run and its not looking promising for investors at the moment. Only more chop!
That being said, I am glad we have the strong commodity sector here!
Yeh, agree, this is what will ultimately drive any move in the long-run and its not looking promising for investors at the moment. Only more chop!
That being said, I am glad we have the strong commodity sector here!
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,581
- Reactions
- 12,707
Re: XAO Analysis
Guys, this is the point that is continually overlooked by "the all is well" brigade.
When economists (and muppets at trading home in their pajamas, scratching their balls in front of a screen) consider that growth in the economy this century has been entirely driven by expansion of loose and easy credit, rather than productivity, they get very worried.
I sense that those in high places who overlook this are doing so intentionally. If they are so seriously cognitively biased that they don't actually see it, then we are in deeper doo-doo. That is a big possibilty.
Gu'mints so far have done nothing other than try to prop up the credit status quo, when we really need urgent action on making economies productive again.
We need to get rid of these perverted Keynesian t0ssers rather urgently. The big problem is that universities are churning out more perverted Keynesian t0ssers. The true thinkers that come through the system won't get positions where they count.
Best have @ss covered for future probabilities.
Guys, this is the point that is continually overlooked by "the all is well" brigade.
When economists (and muppets at trading home in their pajamas, scratching their balls in front of a screen) consider that growth in the economy this century has been entirely driven by expansion of loose and easy credit, rather than productivity, they get very worried.
I sense that those in high places who overlook this are doing so intentionally. If they are so seriously cognitively biased that they don't actually see it, then we are in deeper doo-doo. That is a big possibilty.
Gu'mints so far have done nothing other than try to prop up the credit status quo, when we really need urgent action on making economies productive again.
We need to get rid of these perverted Keynesian t0ssers rather urgently. The big problem is that universities are churning out more perverted Keynesian t0ssers. The true thinkers that come through the system won't get positions where they count.
Best have @ss covered for future probabilities.
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 1,368
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
Off topic, but this has probably been the 4th+ time you've made that descriptive portrayal of home traders Is that all you do today? Invest in a scratching device, & a set of clothes! : Many of our female traders will be quite upset about your anatomical assumptions as well
Oh, right; should add some analysis. Err, umm - US markets were slaughtered on Friday, expect the same for us tomorrow ... futures point to it as well. I believe that the recent push-up in commodity stocks will also come down very quickly throughout this week ... just a theory. As it was more based on sentiment / confidence returning (of the bottom perhaps being reached) ... than actual fundamentals.
Off topic, but this has probably been the 4th+ time you've made that descriptive portrayal of home traders
Is that all you do today? Invest in a scratching device, & a set of clothes! : Many of our female traders will be quite upset about your anatomical assumptions as well Oh, right; should add some analysis. Err, umm - US markets were slaughtered on Friday, expect the same for us tomorrow ... futures point to it as well. I believe that the recent push-up in commodity stocks will also come down very quickly throughout this week ... just a theory. As it was more based on sentiment / confidence returning (of the bottom perhaps being reached) ... than actual fundamentals.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,581
- Reactions
- 12,707
Re: XAO Analysis
Yeah I suppose that's getting a bit tired. But, it's bad form to add to self deprecation... and you miss the point of the portrayal.
I'll be sure to highlight one of your many foibles in the near future.
At least I've balls to scratch... have you?
Off topic, but this has probably been the 4th+ time you've made that descriptive portrayal of home traders
Yeah I suppose that's getting a bit tired. But, it's bad form to add to self deprecation... and you miss the point of the portrayal.
I'll be sure to highlight one of your many foibles in the near future.
At least I've balls to scratch... have you?
- Joined
- 3 March 2007
- Posts
- 574
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
Soo futures are pointing down 83 points to the 5400 level, -1.5%.
Unsurprisingly, since we love to suck fine American parts (either that or our market is owned by offshore money), we'll go down an easy 2.2% just like the Dow has IMO.
I'm wondering what will get hit tomorrow because I had the feeling that the financial slump was mostly priced in but I guess I'm wrong! We don't really have any multinationals as diversified as GE, but oh well, we'll just go down anyway hey.
Soo futures are pointing down 83 points to the 5400 level, -1.5%.
Unsurprisingly, since we love to suck fine American parts (either that or our market is owned by offshore money), we'll go down an easy 2.2% just like the Dow has IMO.
I'm wondering what will get hit tomorrow because I had the feeling that the financial slump was mostly priced in but I guess I'm wrong! We don't really have any multinationals as diversified as GE, but oh well, we'll just go down anyway hey.