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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
davo8 said:
You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.

Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?

Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
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LOLOL

Davo,

You've obviously not read the great bulk of my posts. Understandable as you don't seem to have been around long.... but I 1,000,000% agree with you. My view for trading is short term, I don't argue with the tape.

But long term, the Anglo economies are rogered. My point is that the "majority" are currently hypnotized by "the all is well", bobblehead propaganda. There are not enough new sellers at the moment to take this lower.

Meanwhile, the pollyannas are grinding it higher. Earnings reality will eventually sink in, but not yet.
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More short term analysis :

Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.

Equity Put/Call is in still in a medium term buy signal and US investor dudes and dudesses are putting a hell of a lot more weight on good news than bad news.

The punters still don't believe the real economy is in trouble.

We goin' higher.

Caveat: Unless the sky starts falling very soon. :p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
More short term analysis :

Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.

Equity Put/Call is in still in a medium term buy signal and US investor dudes and dudesses are putting a hell of a lot more weight on good news than bad news.

The punters still don't believe the real economy is in trouble.

We goin' higher.

Caveat: Unless the sky starts falling very soon. :p:
Click to expand...

Was speaking to MRC about this specific thing just a few seconds ago, before you posted this.

Major major breakdown on the VIX tonight.

Time for some hail mary plays? Thinking about it seriously...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I was thinking something more secular and hedonistic. :D:D

craps-1.jpg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
More short term analysis :

Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.

Equity Put/Call is in still in a medium term buy signal and US investor dudes and dudesses are putting a hell of a lot more weight on good news than bad news.

The punters still don't believe the real economy is in trouble.

We goin' higher.

Caveat: Unless the sky starts falling very soon. :p:
Click to expand...

Aahh., but they depend on those outstanding pillars of financial turpitude, the anylists... the trick is to call for earnings to be around say 60c... but they surprise to the upside and come in at 64c... great news, lets rally hard on that, things are not as bad as they seem.. ooops, yes the earnings in the corresponding period were 140c and yes they have more than halved, but shhh, thats not the way we look at things.. :rolleyes:
Cheers
.........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If you have a look on the DOW, we are coming very close to an inverted head and sholders neckline... if that breaks, hello XAO!:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9985.htm

credit crises over then? looks like its all been a big wave 4...
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Back in NZ there seems to have been a lot of small waves... building up to a biggie???
Here's another to add to the list..
NZ... Investors in an AMP Capital Investor fund have foregone their quarterly payment as the global credit crisis fallout continues.

AMP Capital's Strategy Income Partnership fund posted a slightly negative 0.08 per cent return for the March quarter.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/dominionpost/4483355a6034.html

Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
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How do you know when its a Bear market? we get no good news.

How do you know when its Turned to a Bull market? we get no good news and rally.

Whats the diff?? Its what the punters are doing not what the fools are writing about. (don't flame me for calling Bull I'm talking the swings not the long trend. OK flame me is you would like)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
~~
Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
Click to expand...

That is the question, has everything your refer to been built into the price already? I do not see anything in the rest of this post or subsequent posts that detracts from wayneL's view that it has.

A stock does not always fall on the release of bad news, especially if the news is already know to those who do most of the buying and selling volumes. As Kauri said if a figure of 60c return has been factored in and the result turns out to be 64c why would the price go down, notwithstanding it's a poor result compared to the return of a year ago. It's not that unusual for a company to announce a record profit result only to see the share price go down (usually makes for a good divi play) presumably because better results had already been factored in.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
Back in NZ there seems to have been a lot of small waves... building up to a biggie???
Here's another to add to the list..
NZ... Investors in an AMP Capital Investor fund have foregone their quarterly payment as the global credit crisis fallout continues.

AMP Capital's Strategy Income Partnership fund posted a slightly negative 0.08 per cent return for the March quarter.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/dominionpost/4483355a6034.html

Cheers
..........Kauri
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cheers Kauri - I think the biggest worry here has to be the property market. Stats came out a while ago showing that the biggest sector here in terms of numbers employed is 'property' - not just builders & estate agents but when you include the associated services such as legal, planning, mortgage broking, cleaning, lawn mowing, letting agents etc etc etc we're talking more than agriculture & manufacturing. Immigration is down, rates are up & holding - the property slump is well under way...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
LOLOL
You've obviously not read the great bulk of my posts. ...
always nice to have another bear around. :)
PSLOL
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Oops. Sorry. You're right. Mea culpa. I read your latest as eager to dive back in as if nothing had happened.

Regardless of the US gloom & doom, my reading is mostly bear here too. The XAO, XJO, XFJ etc all making lower lows and well below the MA x-over. Only energy, health and materials relatively unscathed.

Even if this was normal cyclical, bear markets last say 10-14 months (and 1987 didn't hit bottom for 5 years) so we couldn't expect to avoid losing money with buy and hold until late this year and can't expect too many trends to follow either.

So what do you trade if you're not into short runs against the trend? Small miners? Penny dreadfuls?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Santob said:
What just happened to the XAO ?? a 100pt spike?
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I think it's because miners have been going up and up forever lately (25% in a month for bhp), and finally broke their trend today. The RIO/BHP takeover was sweetened and made public yesterday, which is always a good idea to sell news that becomes public.

But im just guessing.

Aussie banks and miners started declining yesterday in fact. Which is a little odd because the US is sailing up just fine. Especially their banks were up 2-3% last night.

There was heavy selling of the spi right from the minute it opened, so it must have been some influence that started before the day began.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think predictions are fun!:D

That last one week rally will end tonight. South for a few days now.

Vix/Trin/put-call ratio and bonds all suggest a turnaround imo.

Plus for the fundy's - bad B of A news.

Anyone else got an opinion on where the XAO will finish at the end of this week?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My Crystal ball is saying UP. Some particular aggressive buying today on the SPI. Not your usual local swingers playing the game today. Would not be surprised to see the highest weekly close in 10 Weeks come Friday.
How's that for a prediction?
 
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