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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

The "Aussie 200" is going horizontal and its Bolinger has narrowed right down, It is going to do something exciting its just a matter of whether it has got tired of hitting resistance and is going up or whether it is going to break through. You pays your money and you takes your choice.

Happyjack
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
I'm wondering what will get hit tomorrow because I had the feeling that the financial slump was mostly priced in but I guess I'm wrong! We don't really have any multinationals as diversified as GE, but oh well, we'll just go down anyway hey.
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I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that anything has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary. :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.
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Yes, agree the (economic) fundamentals are always different.

looking at the relative price movement on the Oz market it is hard not to see a continuance down to firmer support at the 50% level - over the next six weeks or next six months? sorry don't know.
US PE's are bad (20) and getting worse so a lot of pressure still emerging
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But how many of us have looked at markets and perceived things like this. I know I have.

And what of the increased debt driving profits arguement?
In the 87 crash PE ratios were very high... based on nothing more than hot air from entrenpeneurs. At least this time there is something behind the PE's albeit debt based assets that have fallen in value... but will eventually go up again.

There is much more that could be said about that, but for me it's just how modern capitalist society is going :sheep: (not me though)...
the changing dynamics of what most people want and the lengths they are prepared to go to to keep up with the jones's. :sword:


For me the bottom line for the movement in markets is not so much the fundamental economic analysis/outlook, but more pier pressure perception.

Most people don't want to get left behind in social or technological trends or material possessions and conversely most don't want to be the last holding the parcel of falling income/assets when the music finally stops.

The yanks won't tollerate a falling USD forever, importing inflation, making overseas travel/holidays more expensive :twak: and eroding their economic status on a PPP basis. :viking:

Then the AUD will ease a bit and our market will :jump:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
And what of the increased debt driving profits arguement?
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Take 2. ;) (Just because we tend to take a lead from the US)

Thats mainly confined to the financials... and probably many consumers.

An observation I made a while ago and reiterated below by a couple of leading intellectuals :eek: ... is that many businesses are not burdened with debt, nor is the ability to raise debt a problem for them.

But as these fine gentlemen point out it's a bit of a see-saw battle to see who is winning, ie how much damage the financials will do in the meantime.

I think once people see that the US isn't going to evaporate away and China and India etc continue growth, the XAO will outshine the US markets again.

Recession Has Bernanke, Greenspan Agreeing Companies Have Cash

By Rich Miller

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has what Alan Greenspan calls one ``major advantage'' as it falls into a recession: Businesses are in far better financial shape than they were entering the past two contractions.

Corporations outside of financial services -- from Cisco Systems Inc. to Coca-Cola Co. -- have collectively socked away more than half a trillion dollars in cash. They have also reduced short-term debt and cut inventories to record-low levels in relation to sales, leaving them better prepared than in the past to weather a contraction.

``We still have what, at the moment at least, appears to be a reasonably good real economy, as distinct from finance,'' the former Federal Reserve chairman said at an April 8 conference...


Debt as a percentage of net worth for non-financial companies outside of farming was 61.3 in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 68 at the start of the 2001 recession and 93.6 in the 1990- 91 contraction, Fed figures show.

``Cash flows are more than adequate, and the amounts of monies that they need are very readily financed in the weakened credit markets,'' Greenspan said at the April 8 conference.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUv3WCFs__qw&refer=exclusive
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Re: XAO Analysis

prescient said:
I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that anything has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary. :eek:
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But the underlying quality of our banks compared to the US is robust, no bank has reported a net LOSS for as long as the eye can see.

No Aussie bank has had a $24 billion sub-prime writedown whereas all the US majors have and they have fallen less than our banks which is disturbing.

And either way, for a bank, no matter inflation/recession/stagflation - banking and groceries are the 2 things we will always need.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

prescient said:
I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that anything has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary. :eek:
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I agree. The losses worldwide will certainly be higher than that, and who knows where they will land?

Avoid financials & discretionary (recession possibilty) and anything where the business model depends on debt (eg infrastructure). Choose from energy, health, tech & materials. Or stick to cash.:(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

While I sit at home in my pyjamas scratching my balls, Im going to be brave and publicly call a short term bottom.

The last 2 days reminded me alot of March 17,18 with the weekend panic and the flat accumulating Monday.

Possibly all the future bad company reports are baked in from Friday nights hammering.

Just wondering if anyone else agreed or disagreed?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I will throw my :2twocents in.

I said yesterday in the SPI thread I'm was looking for up afternoons this week. So I'm with you.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Disagree.

So far been copy book. 3 waves up in the last up move.
Completing a Wave B in an A,B,C correction.
This could now quite possibly be wave 1 in the 5 wave wave C.

While 5657 (XJO) remains intact then so does this analysis.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'll throw my :2twocents in with Broadway and TH.

Looking at option data, my conclusion is that the US (and hence the XAO) has run out of fair dinkum sellers.

Have a look at VIX, it's just a tad complacent next to the price action, there is not a lot of fear, just basically reflecting realized volatility... bullish at this point of proceedings.

PUT/CALL index, while picking up the swing sell, is still in buy mode.

Something unexpected will need to happen to take out the low, and unless there are more "big" surprises, it will be the numbers next and subsequent quarters that will take out this market.

Meanwhile, US investors are falling for the spin from Wall St.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

prescient said:
and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary. :eek:
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Aren't they the fools who forecast such bullish world growth last year?

If they say more losses are to come then the sub-prime mess is probably over lol
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
Aren't they the fools who forecast such bullish world growth last year?

If they say more losses are to come then the sub-prime mess is probably over lol
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Yep!!! It was all polony anyways... ;)

Babcock and Brown - $22.50 BNB has very little exposure to the sub-prime, and sub-prime was a balloney excuse to dump financial stocks which have done very well anyway. I bought into it as it kept falling. BNB profit surged by 65% as well as giving an improved outlook, if it falls more I'll simply buy, and same if it rises past key resistance levels.
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Re: XAO Analysis

3 big days coming up on the US economic calender:

- Tues = Housing Market Index
- Weds = Consumer Price Index + Industrial Production
- Thurs = Jobless claims

Whats the possible bearing of all these...hmmm:cautious:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

JTLP said:
3 big days coming up on the US economic calender:

- Tues = Housing Market Index
- Weds = Consumer Price Index + Industrial Production
- Thurs = Jobless claims

Whats the possible bearing of all these...hmmm:cautious:
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Bearing... probably North... maybe NE. :D

Blame kauri for keeping me up for that one. :p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Have a look at VIX, it's just a tad complacent next to the price action, there is not a lot of fear, just basically reflecting realized volatility... bullish at this point of proceedings.
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You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.

Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?

Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.

Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?

Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
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LOLOL

Davo,

You've obviously not read the great bulk of my posts. Understandable as you don't seem to have been around long.... but I 1,000,000% agree with you. My view for trading is short term, I don't argue with the tape.

But long term, the Anglo economies are rogered. My point is that the "majority" are currently hypnotized by "the all is well", bobblehead propaganda. There are not enough new sellers at the moment to take this lower.

Meanwhile, the pollyannas are grinding it higher. Earnings reality will eventually sink in, but not yet.

Cheers,
always nice to have another bear around. :)

PS
davo8 said:
(g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
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LOL
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Im going to be brave and publicly call a short term bottom.
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My original post did mention short term, I should have quantified that by saying that I was thinking in the next week or two.

We all expect the sky to fall later this year.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.

Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?

Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
Click to expand...

The pitfall of following the wall street hype, a road that often leads to losses... you are right, it is all negative, but the charts points up in the short term, so trade up:2twocents
 
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