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Re: XAO Analysis
Yes, I beleive its called the four pillars policy or something. Backed by the RBA.
I was an investor, but cut my losses and started learning everything I could about trading as soon as the bull-market ended. Unfortunately, I didnt set stops and ended up having a lot (about half) of my capital gains wiped out!
I agree, anybody investing on a fundamental basis (investors) should wait for a turnaround in the trend (which is in essence, using TA).
The basis of this debate was where are "people" (global population of investors), going to put their money? Some makets have to go up, surely? They are not going to stash notes under the matress. If you are happy with a small return, then you can put your money in the bank in Australia and still generate real returns. But that is only a FRACTION of the global invesment community. The rest have to invest somewhere and the key I beleive, is to figure out where...........
Hence, my basis for rising commodities. Perhaps far beyong their supply/demand derived price. I didnt see the investors pulling out when speculation was driving their value stocks in the bull market (WOW, JBH etc), some of the best returns can be made with speculation, note better to use trailing stops in these instances in preference to stops at a support/pivot point IMO. Either way, I will be stopped out if this materials downtrend continues and will wait for a reversal of the downtrend. If this was a whipsaw, I will remain in my positions and hope for the bull to continue to run!
Enjoy those bank returns while they last, because at least I beleive this is probably the largest real return you will make on them for a while. Stagflation is a very true reality and even Australia is not immune. How much more is there to run in the legs of the AUD? Perhaps a little more interest rate and purchasing power parity.....?
Just updated the post so may want to re-read.
I do of course appreciate that, but, here in Australia, we do have the exposure to a strong dollar, & an acceptable rate of interest; in short, we're fortunately not the US, or Japan.
Are you a trader, or an investor? If you're a trader, granted - this might be a great time for you. However, an investor might not be having such a great time: I understand that in the long-term the market will most likely bounce back; but, is this going to happen in 1 or 2 days? Most likely not.
All I'm saying, is that the markets aren't going to make up a years worth of profits in a matter of days (& stay there) ... & as an investor, there's really no need to remain in the markets until a new positive trend is established (this, perhaps, especially relates best to less-seasoned investors), which imo is quite a ways off.
& Chops, well - I tend to believe that our banks are very safe. In fact, I read in another thread; something about our top-4 banks being covered by the government? Although, I'm not too sure on how accurate that is.
Yes, I beleive its called the four pillars policy or something. Backed by the RBA.
I was an investor, but cut my losses and started learning everything I could about trading as soon as the bull-market ended. Unfortunately, I didnt set stops and ended up having a lot (about half) of my capital gains wiped out!
I agree, anybody investing on a fundamental basis (investors) should wait for a turnaround in the trend (which is in essence, using TA).
The basis of this debate was where are "people" (global population of investors), going to put their money? Some makets have to go up, surely? They are not going to stash notes under the matress. If you are happy with a small return, then you can put your money in the bank in Australia and still generate real returns. But that is only a FRACTION of the global invesment community. The rest have to invest somewhere and the key I beleive, is to figure out where...........
Hence, my basis for rising commodities. Perhaps far beyong their supply/demand derived price. I didnt see the investors pulling out when speculation was driving their value stocks in the bull market (WOW, JBH etc), some of the best returns can be made with speculation, note better to use trailing stops in these instances in preference to stops at a support/pivot point IMO. Either way, I will be stopped out if this materials downtrend continues and will wait for a reversal of the downtrend. If this was a whipsaw, I will remain in my positions and hope for the bull to continue to run!
Enjoy those bank returns while they last, because at least I beleive this is probably the largest real return you will make on them for a while. Stagflation is a very true reality and even Australia is not immune. How much more is there to run in the legs of the AUD? Perhaps a little more interest rate and purchasing power parity.....?
Just updated the post so may want to re-read.
