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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

well folks, as this is the XAO analysis thread, here's some breakup of the XAO into it's sectors with composite sector performance forecasts courtesy westpac
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

hi guys, my speculation last night of the spi failing 5220 (xjo) will see more downward movement came true. fib line, base line of the h&s pattern and a lower low all indicated lower levels was imminent.

first target was 5170. that support held for a single bounce before failing. next target is 5080. failing that, I agree with mrc & co's sub 5000 might be a real possibility.

however, with rate cuts, wavepicker's 21st EW date for a peak & options expiry next week we could be near the bottom of this rotation... as long as 5080 holds, I still hold hopes for a good rally still.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A daily chart for 2008,
is finally showing some bullish divergence in the price compared to various technical indicators, whether you look at our market, the US or the UK. I can post charts if Mods wish, but there are plenty of charts already in this thread. Factor in talk of this possible 0.75% rate cut in the US. If we can get some relief from the the seemingly endless stream of negative announcements, who knows, we may just claw back some lost ground over coming weeks.

Fundamental value out there? A couple that I follow,
PTN annual divid forecast 8.5c / share price 55c = 15.4% unfr. tax deferred. AGF final div announced 0.14 / share price 0.99 (net asset value 1.75 per share) = 14.1% unfr., just for the final divid. Obviously there is much more to look into before buying into these or any other stocks. I'm just making the point that there are lots of stocks out there that will reward the investor once the market turns.

But please, proceed with extreme caution in such a volatile environment.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Not much happening today... the volume must be really low? Can someone confirm volume if they have that data? No buyers, no sellers... atleast it's a break from all this whipsawing... probably more action towards EOD.

Been looking at fib lines between the 5460 (XJO) resistance and the tripple bottom low of 5080. Seems like we're currently at another important fib line. I'd speculate that if at the close of the cash market and it has broken 5230, I'm thinking we're heading to atleast 5270 or even higher.

Again, if the bulls cant break through 5230, I'm guessing we're going down again to maybe around 5170.... where fingers cross (if you are bull) support will hold and a bounce occurs... I'm wondering if a spec long at 5170 is a good R:R setup with targets to 5300's and stops down at around 5080.

Anyway too many uncertains and its friday and its a meltdown in adelaide atm... might just go have a cold beer and call it done for this week.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Say we are running around / about 900mil volume daily average currently 533,000,000
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Potential double bottom. Maybe.
Click to expand...

Looks like it well could be.

With this IR cut coming, could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals pushing equities up for its next little bounce in its crash cycle!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Looks like it well could be.

With this IR cut coming, could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals pushing equities up for its next little bounce in its crash cycle!
Click to expand...

Oh goody, the bottom callers are back. Of course this must be the bottom, those rate cuts are so effective and all, one more ought to do it.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

US CPI data came in unchanged allowing the Feds to continue more aggressive rate cutting. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avLckFjXrWEE&refer=home)

SPI has rallied some 100pts from the bottom of SYCOM trading in about 90 minutes.

5170 (XJO) has been a very good spring board so far... amazingly (or not) it has now stalled at the 5270 level (the 50% fib line on my chart above)... Expecting it to rotate lower as profit taking kicks in... if it can hold above 5230 all night and into the morning, I'm still bullish that higher levels to around 5450's is still possible by sometime next week. If it can crack 5270 tonight, 5315 is in sight.

Ahh.. but we're in a confirmed bear market and hedge fund managers know to short all rallies, and so it's possible that we may not see the likes of higher levels anytime soon...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OMG !!! Complete madness.. from 5200 to 5300 in 1hr, then tanked from 5300 to 5100 in 45minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats a 300pts round trip in just under 2 hrs...

I'm stunned and shell shocked!!! !@#$%^&*(&^$#%#@ ^ :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

All technicals are OUT THE DOOR!!!

Here's a theory: Smells like someone in the US had to liqudate urgently and desperately at any price!!!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Financials up Wednesday,down Thursday,up Friday.One would expect down Monday on the Bear Stearns' trouble and further down with the reporting of the big 4 in America next week with analysts(God love 'em) predicting 3 to have eps less than half predicted at the beginning of the Q and the other down a further third.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

All technicals are OUT THE DOOR!!!
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How do you come to that conclusion?
There are many technically analysed calls on this thread way below 5000.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
How do you come to that conclusion?
There are many technically analysed calls on this thread way below 5000.
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I couldn't agree more. Fundamentalists are the only ones calling a bottom at present. See already many posters charts going back to 90's. Until this market goes sideways for a good number of months it is in the hands of the gods.

gg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I am a complete beginner about the futures market. I understand the academic stuff about futures.
Does the futures market opperate outside of ASX trading hours?
If so how can i see the updated information? The figure on bloomberg doesnt seem to be changing?
Help appreciated
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chilliaa said:
I am a complete beginner about the futures market. I understand the academic stuff about futures.
Does the futures market opperate outside of ASX trading hours?
If so how can i see the updated information? The figure on bloomberg doesnt seem to be changing?
Help appreciated
Click to expand...

Because its the weekend.

spi is trading from 9:50am to 4:30pm then from 5:10pm to 7 am.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chilliaa said:
I am a complete beginner about the futures market. I understand the academic stuff about futures.
Does the futures market opperate outside of ASX trading hours?
If so how can i see the updated information? The figure on bloomberg doesnt seem to be changing?
Help appreciated
Click to expand...

If you can't work out for yourself what hours the futures market trades and where to see updated information, i would suggest you are not ready to be trading in the futures market.

IF you do decide to trade futures, the broker you decide to use should give you a platform that will provide you with real time data.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
If you can't work out for yourself what hours the futures market trades and where to see updated information, i would suggest you are not ready to be trading in the futures market.

IF you do decide to trade futures, the broker you decide to use should give you a platform that will provide you with real time data.
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A bit harsh man, what u were never a beginner? Why don't u help the guy out with information so he does not have to learn the hard way.

Last time I checked this was a place were people came to share and learn about trading.

Che Che cheers ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
A bit harsh man, what u were never a beginner? Why don't u help the guy out with information so he does not have to learn the hard way.

Last time I checked this was a place were people came to share and learn about trading.

Che Che cheers ;)
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Its ok i dont mind the critiscm, actually i have no intention of trading futures. I was just curious because it may give an indication of the next days ASX opening. Especially if it could reflect the information from the prior nights trading in the USA.
But from what i am being told here, the ASX futures do not trade overnight?
 
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