XAO Technical Analysis

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Kauri
I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?Or is there something more to it?

I think I can interpret, Kauri is saying if you are a duck laying on your back on the road you are "A dead duck"

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

US EOD S&P500 from last night last candle is telling, note the move down from the circle area.

 

[panikhide]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think I can interpret, Kauri is saying if you are a duck laying on your back on the road you are "A dead duck"

Really? I thought the attention might be on the mother duck and that the message was stay off the road, even if there is something on the road that you really want. Alternatively, maybe there is a right time to get what you want from the road and it's just a question of knowing when it safe to step out there.

Or maybe we shouldn't be using analogies to try to predict the market's direction.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

sorry.. this should clear it up a tad...

Hi Kauri

I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?

Or is there something more to it?

a chart I posted a couple of months back.. (note that the levels are not important.. it is the psychology that is the point....)
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Really? I thought the attention might be on the mother duck and that the message was stay off the road, even if there is something on the road that you really want. Alternatively, maybe there is a right time to get what you want from the road and it's just a question of knowing when it safe to step out there.
Or maybe we shouldn't be using analogies to try to predict the market's direction.

Hi Panikhide
Please ignore my flippant comments just trying to engage Kauri's excellent humor

 

[panikhide]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Panikhide
Please ignore my flippant comments just trying to engage Kauri's excellent humor

It's okay. I'm not taking it that seriously - just trying to (a) understand where he thinks the market is going and (b) have some fun with the duck logic (although I must point out that I do like my analysis about picking the right time to step onto the road).

Apologies to those who just want to focus on the XAO.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

This afternoon will be interesting to see if we get a kick up late from the shorts who don't want to hold over the weekend (Nick Radges point).
---
Whiskers I think for any move up we have to smash through the 5578 area (over head resistance) which would then provide the rallies to be shorted again, in the mean time I expect more churn, primary trend is down.
---
Lets see what happens this afternoon.

Hang on for the whiplash this arvo!

Anyone notice the US futures, fwiw this far out!

smash through the 5578... sounds good to me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hang on for the whiplash this arvo!

Anyone notice the US futures, fwiw this far out!

What about them?? They are flat.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's okay. I'm not taking it that seriously - just trying to (a) understand where he thinks the market is going and (b) have some fun with the duck logic (although I must point out that I do like my analysis about picking the right time to step onto the road).

Apologies to those who just want to focus on the XAO.

I don't usually go the prediction route, and actually don't trade the SPI... often... but for what it is worth I have been following this track for a whiles now....
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

What about them?? They are flat.

Exactly, as I say fwiw... it's not a foregone conclusion that the route will continue tonight.

Yesterday there also seemed to be wide spread profit taking across precious and particularly base metals.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Would have to assume Wavepickers 11 March decision point will be a LOW.

2 trading days. Wonder if 4800 is possible?

 

[tex.willer]

Re: XAO Analysis

The laws of gravity applies even to the stock market ... With the fuel gone (cheap debt), so has the bull run.

Has anyone actually had a look at a weekly or monthly chart of XJO?

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Would have to assume Wavepickers 11 March decision point will be a LOW.

2 trading days. Wonder if 4800 is possible?

Could well be, or perhaps by the 22nd or there abouts...........?

Either way, I was only JUST in the red today, after being green for nearly two weeks.

So I will continue to hold tight and hope!

These next couple weeks are really going to be crucial with all the important data coming out. Its make or break time, but if its bad, we may go down past 4800!

Anyone still shorting the financial sector? It just continues to implode and generate cash for all riding this short trend all the way to the bottom!

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

The laws of gravity applies even to the stock market ... With the fuel gone (cheap debt), so has the bull run.

Has anyone actually had a look at a weekly or monthly chart of XJO?

I would say its gone past that point, its like a black hole at the moment, nothing is escaping, defying the laws of gravity! If you cant escape its gravitational pull, might as well ride it all the way to the end!

 

[tex.willer]

Re: XAO Analysis

When ( not if ) the commodities bubble bursts, we will find out the true low of the market ...

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone still shorting the financial sector? It just continues to implode and generate cash for all riding this short trend all the way to the bottom!

I missed getting on board SUN.......one of the better banking shorts.

When ( not if ) the commodities bubble bursts, we will find out the true low of the market ...

Good point! Have been listening to Kauri's rumours where there is smoke......

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

Too low to short... conditions are slightly oversold...
Too uncertain to long... medium trend is still down...

Tonight could be just as volatile as last night with the US Emplyoment report out 830am NY Time

http://www.econoday.com/clients/bas...ment_situation/year/2008/yearly/03/index.html

It's gonna either be: , or

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Todays bar was a real crusher on a slight fall in volume, I have taken the buy zone box off the chart.......on to Waynes technical indicator

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Too low to short... conditions are slightly oversold...
Too uncertain to long... medium trend is still down...

And that makes us... sitting ducks?

 

[sam76]

Re: XAO Analysis