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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
I am net long as well chops, have been so since early this week. I know it's quite frustrating at present but have to hang in there. In actual fact it's actually quite good RR setup, with a stop marginally below the previous low of the sideways move. The XAO pattern is actaully quite skewed at this juncture due in part from the bank weakness. The US Indices give a much clearer picture IMO with some good EW contracting triangles in the cash market data see below both in the DJIA and SP500. They look like they will resolve within the next 2 sessions. Triangles form because the market is waiting for something to give it direction, usually associated with news. Perhaps as josjes mentioned, the fed may come out with something to give the markets some stimulus coming into the next meeting. Not sure could be anything!! That's why the best things to work with are the patterns.

Still favour the a move north to complete the pattern before heading south again. This is a classic countertrend move and positioning correctly in the countertrend move completion is the best place to make $$. (assuming I am right about the wavecount that is!!)To me the termination of the countertrend for a position on the short side is more important than the upward "thrust" that precedes it, even though that in itself will be quite tradeable
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The symmetrical triangle has been broken to the downside, this violates one of the 3 assumptions you have for this hypothesis of a strong bounce at 11 March. I think an update is called for.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

josjes said:
The symmetrical triangle has been broken to the downside, this violates one of the 3 assumptions you have for this hypothesis of a strong bounce at 11 March. I think an update is called for.
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I think you have just provided it!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

some talk of "it's the seventies again "

one thing seems certain , cycles are speeding up..
But apart from that they are always the same ( only different :D )..
And it is not just about the USA anymore...

B% increased again today

So ( If it is all about the USA ) here is the S&P then and now

or whenever ;)......



motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
B% increased again today

So ( If it is all about the USA )
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I'm also betting more bullish... beginning to think I'll not join the bears for a long while yet, mainly cos I'm not exposed to the financials.

I'm smelling another decent up-kick. Today in particular was oversold again with buyers standing back waiting for news.

The US ISM Factory Index just came in marginally better than forecast. While production and inventories were down a bit, new orders were only marginally down.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Todays XAO
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Ifocus,

You missed a very important technical point:

:p::D

6ixvdc.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Whiskers, you turned into a fundamentals trader? ;)
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Always been basically fundamental, TH. Just turn more to tech stuff when things get more choppy. :cool:

Starting to worry or wonder about wavepickers EW preferred march 11 high though. If that is going to be a high, the following down leg is likely to shoot the bottom out of wayne's 'Oh **** zone' if we don't get a hell of an upleg asap.

Unless they are only teeny weeny little waves! :rolleyes:

My thinking was and basically still is more of an 06 style sideways motion for a few months until we cleared out the financials worries, probably until after some march reports come out and or the $A eases back a bit. I'm thinking the strong $A is probably hurting our market more than all the internal US stuff.

As I mentioned earlier I get the same sense of growing bullishness about the Aus market as motorway and for me with pretty good commodity prices holding up and expected to for the near future, I'm finding it harder to rationalise our market being held back for too long. I reckon our market is just waiting for something to 'click', to get us going again. Probably something like, so what if the financials are giving us the sk!ts atm, the resource boom will make that look like a blip on the past horizon. I wish I could put my finger on it.

Any chance the current EW count may extent much further, months, years maybe, before a major down leg?

PS: Wall street just about to close and done a lazerous again in the last hour. Maybe the problem is the size of the funds and PPT buggerising around the market and just confussing the life out of everyone.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

First level for the Bears to defend today looks like 5460-5500 on the XJO.
Looks like a close over there could lead to a reflex rally back to highs of recent consolidation, yet the Bears will probably still control the market. We really need a higher high. Something that the market just hasn't been able to achieve recently.

Would not be surprised to see today as an inside day(SPI high was 5463 yesterday) with a big move to come in a day or two. If I had to put 2 bob on it I would guess down. If we go up the bears will just dump on the rally and probably cause another lower high. Either way we have a high of 5750 from Feb 27th and a low from yesterday 5350 on the XJO as important points to watch for breaks.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Up dated chart for Wayne :D:D

Looks like the sellers finished off the day....


.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

josjes said:
The symmetrical triangle has been broken to the downside, this violates one of the 3 assumptions you have for this hypothesis of a strong bounce at 11 March. I think an update is called for.
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Sorry to let you down with the late reply, but I aint running a forecasting service here with a paid subscription. I offer only my opinion with some probabilities of what the market might do, just like everyone else. There are no certainties, my views are NOT trading advice, sometimes they turn out OK and sometimes they don't.

With that aside, my EW count has NOT been invalidated YET, only the type of pattern I was expecting for blue wave b within major green wave b has been violated. That is why I have not updated yet. Refer may last post:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=265536&postcount=2967

"In that post I had as the preferred blue wave b pattern as a 'contracting triangle". Instead it appears we have a zigzag pattern in progress, and in the US Indices we might have flat corrections in progress. I can only try and call patterns based on the data available up to that time, once more data points are added and the patterns start to take a more recognizable shape, then better judgements and probabilities can be made.


My primary date for a peak plus or minus a few days of 11th March to complete major green wave b seems highly unlikely at this point.(Them's the breaks unfortunately) BUT, the date of 11th March still appears it may be significant for something, the question is will it be a high or low or will it only be a minor wavelet?? That I can't answer at the moment.
I must say here that a forecaster you follow and made mention of to me had a date of 3rd March and he has had to change his outlook.

So at this point the alternate date(mentioned in my last post) of 21st March plus or minus a few days(which was my least preferred option) for a high in green wave b might be a better chance for a termination.
Unless of course I have it completely wrong and the market continues bearishly to new lows as anything can happen.

Trembling Hand said:
I think you have just provided it!!
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TH, that is typical of you to start sharpening the knives this early. You did the same in July of 2007 when I stated it was a high probability we were coming into a significant top, and a few days later the market had it's biggest correction for the year to your complete and utter surprise. Then you come up with your solution as to how easy it would have been to pick the market was about to tank with your homemade advance/decline chart (Hindsight is wonderful thing)

Since you are such an authority with your brillant track record over the last 7 years of your experience in markets, perhaps you can share some of your knowledge and trading prowess with the community of this forum instead of nit picking what others are trying to share.


All the best

Wavepicker
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
TH, that is typical of you to start sharpening the knives this early. You did the same in July of 2007 when I stated it was a high probability we were coming into a significant top, and a few days later the market had it's biggest correction for the year to your complete and utter surprise. Then you come up with your solution as to how easy it would have been to pick the market was about to tank with your homemade advance/decline chart (Hindsight is wonderful thing)

Since you are such an authority with your brillant track record over the last 7 years of your experience in markets, perhaps you can share some of your knowledge and trading prowess with the community of this forum instead of nit picking what others are trying to share.
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Bloody hell. wavepicker you seem to be jumping at shadows yet again. I was not having a go at you, your methods, EW or your interpretation of EW. I was simply stating that josjes had answered his own question that the the triangle had broken to the down side.

As for the rest of the comments I can hardly be botherd with a response.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Bloody hell. wavepicker you seem to be jumping at shadows yet again. I was not having a go at you, your methods, EW or your interpretation of EW. I was simply stating that josjes had answered his own question that the the triangle had broken to the down side.

As for the rest of the comments I can hardly be botherd with a response.
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Fair enough apologize for the misunderstanding in this instance, but you have referred to Elliott Wave as "Idiot wave" in the past so please understand my "jumping at the shadows".
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Sorry to let you down with the late reply, but I aint running a forecasting service here with a paid subscription. I offer only my opinion with some probabilities of what the market might do, just like everyone else. There are no certainties, my views are NOT trading advice, sometimes they turn out OK and sometimes they don't.
Click to expand...
No offense WP, I was just stating that perhaps change of analysis or forecast is due now since we have a broken support. Your view on the EW analysis is appreciated in this forum, well for me anyway, I am here to learn from other people experience.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
My primary date for a peak plus or minus a few days of 11th March to complete major green wave b seems highly unlikely at this point.(Them's the breaks unfortunately) BUT, the date of 11th March still appears it may be significant for something, the question is will it be a high or low or will it only be a minor wavelet?? That I can't answer at the moment.
I must say here that a forecaster you follow and made mention of to me had a date of 3rd March and he has had to change his outlook.

So at this point the alternate date(mentioned in my last post) of 21st March plus or minus a few days(which was my least preferred option) for a high in green wave b might be a better chance for a termination.
Click to expand...

Wavepicker, Just noticed 21st March is Good Friday and the 20th is the Autumn equinox (where are you trader paul) and of couse the US Fed is meeting between the 11th and 21st.

I certainly go with the significent period before easter, on current information a little high. That being anticipated, then some cooling off until after some local March qtr reports surface seems quite reasonable to me.

The issue then becomes where art thou green wave c... so a flatter green wave c is possible?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Wavepicker, Just noticed 21st March is Good Friday and the 20th is the Autumn equinox (where are you trader paul) and of couse the US Fed is meeting between the 11th and 21st.

I certainly go with the significent period before easter, on current information a little high. That being anticipated, then some cooling off until after some local March qtr reports surface seems quite reasonable to me.

The issue then becomes where art thou green wave c... so a flatter green wave c is possible?
Click to expand...

Also Whiskers,

- from the low 22/1/08 to the high 4/2/08 was 8 fibonacci trading days

- the zigzag decline we had from 4/2/08 to today(5/3/08) was fibonacci 21 trading days

-from 5/3/08 to 21/3/08 will be another 13 fibonacci trading days

20-25th March period also coincides with another approximate medium term fixed cycle point.

Remembering also I had 11/03/08 as another significant date if we rally into this date it could mean a short pullback before perhaps heading to 21/3/08??

Makes for some interesting trading
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Not gonna stay in that buy zone for long I don't think, ifocus.

Since being oversold for a couple of days, it looks like we should get clear of the intermediate down trend line (bold black) again and I think for good this time.

The post Nov high down trend (red) is blending into the post Aug low sideways/uptrend channel very nicely.

Also I can see plenty of room for wavepickers EW to trend in the blue channel for the time being.

Just like to mention also that yellow long term trend line has proved to be good support for the june 06 'waver' and the the 87 crash. That being said I'm not suggesting it's a universal support area... just when the circumstances are relevant.

PS: When I did my 'proportion' analysis, thats just the area where it calculated out.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
.... the 20th is the Autumn equinox ...
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Also, 20th is Options Expiry... Have noticed on Options Expiry days, sometimes prices get bumped around quite a bit - especially during the cross trade between 4-430pm.


TremblingHands: I have checked my dates on options expiry. In regards to this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=265174&postcount=2966

That call on the target of 5800 by an option trader was a total mistake in regards to dates... i've explained to you in the PM and would like to clarify in this forum that sometimes mistakes happen... my credentials maybe questionable now, but hey... as they say, DYOR and 'hot tips' are what they are and needs to be suspicous of...

For the record, It seems that my source passed on information from someone else who had made 2 mistakes... 1) information was already 1 week old and 2) a mix up on Options expiry dates for index and single stocks are different. Honest mistakes happens... Such mistake should not have happened and if you DYOR like TH did, you'll pick it up... TH, If you want a pat on the back... you can have one...

I promise I wont post anymore 'hot tips'... i'll just keep them for myself next time.
 
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