Trembling Hand
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Dont worry Korrupt, you made a mistake and learnt from it! Your credibility is still fine with me!
I think Whiskers may be right at least in the short-term.
Dont worry Korrupt, you made a mistake and learnt from it! Your credibility is still fine with me!
I think Whiskers may be right at least in the short-term.
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Re: XAO Analysis
thanks mrc & co
I count 4 attempts to crack 5460 (XJO) in the past few trading session... what a stubborn line to breakout of... the bulls needs to muster the heard to get past that.
Anyway... the lows are getting higher, so it's a good sign. Ascending triangle formation taking shape... I think it's possible we may test the lower 5400's before this happens (as those long for the day cover back???)... but who knows... it may take a short cut and power past 5460 before EOD today...
My trading plan: go long on the break of 5460 - maybe wait for a pull back after the initial break. Look for a bounce off 5460 to confirm that it has now become a support level - and then enter the trade. Target would be 100pts.
thanks mrc & co
I count 4 attempts to crack 5460 (XJO) in the past few trading session... what a stubborn line to breakout of... the bulls needs to muster the heard to get past that.
Anyway... the lows are getting higher, so it's a good sign. Ascending triangle formation taking shape... I think it's possible we may test the lower 5400's before this happens (as those long for the day cover back???)... but who knows... it may take a short cut and power past 5460 before EOD today...
My trading plan: go long on the break of 5460 - maybe wait for a pull back after the initial break. Look for a bounce off 5460 to confirm that it has now become a support level - and then enter the trade. Target would be 100pts.
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
was so hoping that the ascending triangle pattern would hold for the short term and a breakout higher would occur... looking very bleak atm... SPI -70pts & DJI -200pts
EOD could indeed be eve-of-destruction
was so hoping that the ascending triangle pattern would hold for the short term and a breakout higher would occur... looking very bleak atm... SPI -70pts & DJI -200pts
EOD could indeed be eve-of-destruction
Re: XAO Analysis
I believe so... The US has their key employment report coming out tommorrow Friday and anything bad (which I believe will be) is gonna see a major down globally.
I believe so... The US has their key employment report coming out tommorrow Friday and anything bad (which I believe will be) is gonna see a major down globally.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yup. Unless the PPT announce a shocking and surprising 0.5 - 1% rate cut in the next 24hrs, the USS "Unca Sam" will likely list a further few degrees to port..... unfortunately, some of the crew who were supposed to be manning the pumps have abandoned ship and were last seen swimming rapidly towards Cuba....
Tis such a shame we can't seem to chop through the cable attaching HMAS "Oz" to the stern of the sinking USS "Unca Sam"....
Ahhh... let the good times roll, eh?
Chiz,
AJ
Yup. Unless the PPT announce a shocking and surprising 0.5 - 1% rate cut in the next 24hrs, the USS "Unca Sam" will likely list a further few degrees to port..... unfortunately, some of the crew who were supposed to be manning the pumps have abandoned ship and were last seen swimming rapidly towards Cuba....
Tis such a shame we can't seem to chop through the cable attaching HMAS "Oz" to the stern of the sinking USS "Unca Sam"....
Ahhh... let the good times roll, eh?
Chiz,
AJ
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
I guess the only thing the longs can hope for here is a higher low. Which as I pointed out two day ago we just haven't been able to achieve. Until such time as a higher high or higher low there is no reason to think the long side is safe.
Something I will be watching for is a hard and fast afternoon recovery. Its in my 'what if play book' at the moment but I gotta say its way down the back of it.
With Monday closed its going to be painful for long punters and the shorts have controlled the SPI for a long time, I'm not expecting them to give up now. Especially since the chances of some real mess occurring around 2 to 3 pm margin call time today.
I guess the only thing the longs can hope for here is a higher low. Which as I pointed out two day ago we just haven't been able to achieve. Until such time as a higher high or higher low there is no reason to think the long side is safe.
Something I will be watching for is a hard and fast afternoon recovery. Its in my 'what if play book' at the moment but I gotta say its way down the back of it.
With Monday closed its going to be painful for long punters and the shorts have controlled the SPI for a long time, I'm not expecting them to give up now. Especially since the chances of some real mess occurring around 2 to 3 pm margin call time today.
Re: XAO Analysis
Just checked http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2008.htm and it seems Monday is open...
Just checked http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2008.htm and it seems Monday is open...
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Re: XAO Analysis
whats the go guys?
Break the lows of around 5300's and we're looking at the next support level of the lows made in late Jan of around 5170's????
whats the go guys?
Break the lows of around 5300's and we're looking at the next support level of the lows made in late Jan of around 5170's????
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Re: XAO Analysis
This afternoon will be interesting to see if we get a kick up late from the shorts who don't want to hold over the weekend (Nick Radges point).
If we don't then Waynes technical indicator on my earlier chart will come into play sooner rather than later.
Whiskers I think for any move up we have to smash through the 5578 area (over head resistance) which would then provide the rallies to be shorted again, in the mean time I expect more churn, primary trend is down.
The current little consolidation is likely to be a continuation point to move further down IMHO.
Lets see what happens this afternoon.
This afternoon will be interesting to see if we get a kick up late from the shorts who don't want to hold over the weekend (Nick Radges point).
If we don't then Waynes technical indicator on my earlier chart will come into play sooner rather than later.
Whiskers I think for any move up we have to smash through the 5578 area (over head resistance) which would then provide the rallies to be shorted again, in the mean time I expect more churn, primary trend is down.
The current little consolidation is likely to be a continuation point to move further down IMHO.
Lets see what happens this afternoon.
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Re: XAO Analysis
The news from America was woeful last night-
"Today was the day the roof officially fell in on the US economy. News from Europe involving bank trouble at UBS (NYSE: UBS) and an inadequate rescue of Ambac (NYSE: ABK) helped push at least a half a dozen major financial stocks to 52-week lows.
The Fed then came out with news that is as bad as anything it has passed along this year. Americans' percentage of equity in their homes fell below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945.
According to the AP "Moody's Economy.com estimates that 8.8 million homeowners, or about 10.3 percent of homes, will have zero or negative equity by the end of the month. Even more disturbing, about 13.8 million households, or 15.9 percent, will be "upside down" if prices fall 20 percent from their peak."
On the heels of that news The Mortgage Bankers Association said that "proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure shot up to a record high of 0.83 percent in the October-to-December quarter." The delinquency rate for all mortgages climbed to 5.82 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from the 5.59 percent in the third quarter and was the highest since 1985.
Due to the price of oil staying over $100, gas prices are also moving up. The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.7 cent overnight to $3.185, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.
For people who don't know what a recession looks like, this is it."
Douglas A. McIntyre
http://www.247wallst.com/
-and doesn't look like it will be much better tonight.Pessimistic Whiskers?Sure am.With credit markets tight and slowing worldwide spending,I am again out of the market and into fixed interest to recoup some losses.
The buyers to take a backseat today and wait for the news from the good old U.S. of A tonight?Iwould think so.
The news from America was woeful last night-
"Today was the day the roof officially fell in on the US economy. News from Europe involving bank trouble at UBS (NYSE: UBS) and an inadequate rescue of Ambac (NYSE: ABK) helped push at least a half a dozen major financial stocks to 52-week lows.
The Fed then came out with news that is as bad as anything it has passed along this year. Americans' percentage of equity in their homes fell below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945.
According to the AP "Moody's Economy.com estimates that 8.8 million homeowners, or about 10.3 percent of homes, will have zero or negative equity by the end of the month. Even more disturbing, about 13.8 million households, or 15.9 percent, will be "upside down" if prices fall 20 percent from their peak."
On the heels of that news The Mortgage Bankers Association said that "proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure shot up to a record high of 0.83 percent in the October-to-December quarter." The delinquency rate for all mortgages climbed to 5.82 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from the 5.59 percent in the third quarter and was the highest since 1985.
Due to the price of oil staying over $100, gas prices are also moving up. The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.7 cent overnight to $3.185, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.
For people who don't know what a recession looks like, this is it."
Douglas A. McIntyre
http://www.247wallst.com/
-and doesn't look like it will be much better tonight.Pessimistic Whiskers?Sure am.With credit markets tight and slowing worldwide spending,I am again out of the market and into fixed interest to recoup some losses.
The buyers to take a backseat today and wait for the news from the good old U.S. of A tonight?Iwould think so.
Trembling Hand
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Kauri
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Re: XAO Analysis
Kauri I sort of understand Galah psychology but duck psychology I admit is beyond me.......
Kauri I sort of understand Galah psychology but duck psychology I admit is beyond me.......
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Re: XAO Analysis
i'm betting 5180 (XJO) will be the do or die line... (Jan 22 low's)
Indicators are moderately oversold and a technical bounce cannot be rulled out...
Watch out for the 2pm and 3pm movement... could either a) continue this downward spiral or b) a counter rally... if the counter rally gets momentum... there would be plenty of punters short covering lifting the SPI higher and away from doom and gloom...
Feel sorry for those sorry buggers who are either margin called or are forced to liquidate... that reminds me.... if by 3pm, a trader who can't meet their margin calls... their positions gets liqudated right? That would put more pressure on the SPI yeh?
i'm betting 5180 (XJO) will be the do or die line... (Jan 22 low's)
Indicators are moderately oversold and a technical bounce cannot be rulled out...
Watch out for the 2pm and 3pm movement... could either a) continue this downward spiral or b) a counter rally... if the counter rally gets momentum... there would be plenty of punters short covering lifting the SPI higher and away from doom and gloom...
Feel sorry for those sorry buggers who are either margin called or are forced to liquidate... that reminds me.... if by 3pm, a trader who can't meet their margin calls... their positions gets liqudated right? That would put more pressure on the SPI yeh?
Re: XAO Analysis
Hi Kauri
I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?
Or is there something more to it?
Hi Kauri
I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?
Or is there something more to it?