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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Following on from the analysis of the XAO was posted -090208

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843

The following EW chart was shown with the expected pattern of trend shown by the arrows. The target was 6244pts and the date 11th March as the preferred time cycle count and 21st march as the alternate.

So far the pattern of trend has traced out as expected and pink wave b of the contracting triangle has completed and pink wave c is currently in progress. These usually retrace 50-61% of wave c. Not much else has changed, this is a countertrend rally and should be fully retraced when it is complete and I expect market to continue on to fresh lows.

The SP500 has also a similar pattern of trend

Cheers
Click to expand...

We are obviously going to get a retest of that breakout point. Any thoughts or targets if it doesn't bounce off?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dirty, Dirty day! :( :(

Just no love for the banks, SPI bids are melting away. Looks like the melt down we had to have isn't over just yet.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yes expanding volatility as we head south time to see if buyers step up this arvo or tomorrow as we head in to the buy zone again......
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This market is really testing the steeliest of nerves. You need to be half-brained impaired to be sticking with your conviction/plan. The EW chart in theory looks good, but I have doubts to see how this market can jump from 5620 to 6200 (10%) in the next 2-3 weeks. In a bull market yeah that's easily done, but we are in midst of bear market. For this to happen, there must be string of good news from financial sector to jump start this bounce. At the moment all I can hear and see are gloom and doom coming from the financials.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

josjes said:
You need to be half-brained impaired to be sticking with your conviction/plan. The EW chart in theory looks good, but I have doubts to see how this market can jump from 5620 to 6200 (10%) in the next 2-3 weeks. In a bull market yeah that's easily done, but we are in midst of bear market.
Click to expand...

Weird enough the steepest rallies happen in bear markets. When it gets going there is no supply from above as most have been washed out. Nothing for the shorts to cover into and punters have a stack of cash to add more fuel to the fire.

With that said today the Bulls have a bit of work to do or its going to look like a failure.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Yes expanding volatility as we head south time to see if buyers step up this arvo or tomorrow as we head in to the buy zone again......
Click to expand...

Monday, I think you mean eh.

Yeah, it was getting into the over bought area a bit on Wed.

Travelling in a bit narrower band than I thought it would, but I'm still expecting it to kick higher as you say late today or monday.

Thinking, a bit further down the track with the next EW wave down, we'll probably get a bit of end of quarter jitters but I don't see or anticipate anything yet that will cause a severe downleg.

josjes, as I got plenty of crititism for on the immement and severe market correction thread, I don't think it will be as bad as some fear, mainly because Ambec and MBIA didn't get down graded as some expected. Also China's economic iniatives look like lifting their local consumption to turnaround their reliance on exports and Indian demand for our resources still look good.

As TH pointed out earlier the financial sector is what's holding the XAO back and I think that is out of distrust for what they are telling us. Once the March qtr reports are out there I think people will start to get a bit more confidence overall.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Monday, I think you mean eh.
Click to expand...

:D:D:D


josjes, as I got plenty of crititism for on the immement and severe market correction thread, I don't think it will be as bad as some fear, mainly because Ambec and MBIA didn't get down graded as some expected. Also China's economic iniatives look like lifting their local consumption to turnaround their reliance on exports and Indian demand for our resources still look good.
Click to expand...


I think until all the bad news is out its just going to be chop plenty of cockroaches to come out yet I suspect, domestic= rising interest rates, rising inflation, add global financial chaos all I keep seeing is risk and rising gold prices!

Still the market will keep doing what it likes.......
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
:D

So buy gold! Seems the most obvious investment out there ATM! Though, I have been known to be wrong (but who hasnt)!
Click to expand...

Buy butter... cheese... milk... never forget the dream...
Cheers
............ miraka ma miere..
 
Re: XAO Analysis

For those interested

B% is now at 40.4%... ( remember it has come up from 6.6% )

The number of stocks rising above their last point of supply continues to increase quite steadily ( next week will provide very good test )

The last Bar sometimes I see Wyckoff Traders sometimes

refer to as a resurrection bar...

price did move down but then demand moved up...
A number of other stocks ( eg BHP ) have signs of "absorption" at resistance
and look to be close to adding to the B% reading..

Constructing the Technical Position Barometer is a quick task requiring no more than a day-by-day
plotting of the total number of stocks in each position. ..........the barometer shows at a glance whether the number of stocks in certain positions are gradually
increasing or decreasing. This becomes a significant clue to the growing strength or weakness of the
market's technical position.
Click to expand...

As a double check of your conclusion about the market's position from the Position Sheet, compare it to
an independent conclusion drawn from the trend chart of averages------------------
contradiction between the Position Sheet and trend chart ---- if it
shows up, it's time to re-think some deductions.

Selecting the best individual stocks Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 9 by Jack K. Hutson
Click to expand...


motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Here is an example of a stock in that 40.4%
and one that is not..


ABS gave a no vote in Aug 2007 near $7
and has never voted yes since

WPL gave a yes vote in Feb 2008 ( stocks "vote" only once when the switches occur )

motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
For those interested

B% is now at 40.4%... ( remember it has come up from 6.6% )

The number of stocks rising above their last point of supply continues to increase quite steadily ( next week will provide very good test )

The last Bar sometimes I see Wyckoff Traders sometimes

refer to as a resurrection bar...

price did move down but then demand moved up...
A number of other stocks ( eg BHP ) have signs of "absorption" at resistance
and look to be close to adding to the B% reading..






motorway
Click to expand...

Good stuff motorway.

I was noticing something similar. The stockastic sometimes turning down a little with the market but the Williams% staying up.

price did move down but then demand moved up...
Click to expand...

Not an easy concept to comprehend let alone pick. Causes me a few late nights, when when the market is uneasy, sorting throught stocks.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just looking over DOW / S&P500 / XAO EOD charts, polishing the crystal ball, reading candles etc

Currently XAO being affected by US sentiment.....

Trend is down over all (deep that one I know) but the DOW and more so S$P threatening lower moves but both will be entering so called value areas.

All three show weakness on the 2nd minor peak after Jan low and the XAO will confirm this on a close below 5507 barring short covering / rally this arvo this could be today.

Trembling are we going for a rally today on the SPI?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

the dow looks suspiciously like a W4 to me... at the moment that is.. :)
Cheeers
..........Kauri
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Drop in volume? buyers stayed out, shorts didn't cover, now we wait for the US
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Drop in volume? buyers stayed out, shorts didn't cover, now we wait for the US
Click to expand...

Yeh, I was hoping we would see a rally into the close.

Time to wait for the US as you say, which I think is odds on to see some kind of a fall (though I beleive not too dramatic).

Only time will tell!
 
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