XAO Banter Thread

[Triathlete]

Like yesterday?

Not yet....probably just a bounce still in a downtrend to me...weekly and monthly swing are still down!!

 

[Triathlete]

I've been through it all many times before, been investing in stocks for nearly 30 years. I am quite well cashed up and a 60 to 70% crash won't make any difference to my lifestyle. If that scenario unfolded I would unlock more cash and deploy it in the market just like I did in 2008 and 2009. There is a thread called something like "The good news thread", back in 2009 I clearly outlined 4 buys that I did when the markets crashed 55%, just one off the top of my head was buying CBA at $26. man that was good. Big crashes = big opportunities. Yes we are all different, as I said it is for my super, it is for ever, I do not need the capital, I need the long term returns.

I see your point Bill....as you mentioned you are after long term returns and surely after making such great returns with your CBA purchase at $26 and growing dividends along the way you surely would not let them drop 60% to 70% if that scenario was to unfold before locking in the profits as you said before..... never to sell...?

 

[rimtas]

Today was the last day to sell, especialy banks. Black Friday follows tomorrow. Goodbye 5000, will see you in the next decade.

 

[CanOz]

Today was the last day to sell, especialy banks. Black Friday follows tomorrow. Goodbye 5000, will see you in the next decade.

ooooohhhh, BIG CALL!!!

Got yer moola where your pie hole is?

 

[shouldaindex]

The problem with getting out during drawdowns, is that you are more likely to miss out on money than save it.

Let's say you get out when the market has dropped 20% and get back in 6 months later:

Market went up:
1990 +10%
1992 +23%
1994 +6%
1997 +24%
2003 +18%
2011 +7%

Market went down:
2008 -36%

So net result over a 25 year period, is staying in has been significantly better.

(Similar results after 3 / 6 / 12 month periods after a 20% decline, take into account this period was largely a secular bull)

 

[Bill M]

I see your point Bill....as you mentioned you are after long term returns and surely after making such great returns with your CBA purchase at $26 and growing dividends along the way you surely would not let them drop 60% to 70% if that scenario was to unfold before locking in the profits as you said before..... never to sell...?

I mentioned before that when the DOW was above 18,000 and the XAO 5,900 I liquidated all but one small parcel of NAB. Everything else went to cash as I was restructuring my super fund. I sold CBA and the others a long time ago, some with good profits and others breaking even. Since then all I have been doing is waiting for a decent correction, and I think that correction is here now.

But is it? I don't know and neither does anyone else and you technical guys are way ahead of me and still have widely differing view points. That is why I like reading all your stuff and then the disagreements that follow. I hang off all the posts a good half a dozen of you make and they are very interesting. But with all the wide and different views, in the end no one really knows anything so I revert to doing what I have been doing all my life. That is buying as cheap as I can for the long term.

To me the XAO is cheap right now, it may get cheaper or it may head north. I am trying to get the best prices I can buy staggering my buys. I am still largely in cash so a drop to 4930 or lower will produce even better prices/dividends. I am drip feeding small amounts in at a time.

People should not underestimate the power of the dividends. In 2 weeks 5 of my ETF's that I hold go ex dividend and they pay well. Those dividends then become another buy parcel for the future, again when I find the market good value.

You mentioned dividends being chopped during a down turn. During the GFC the dividends were chopped across my portfolio by about 25%, I can handle that as it will still be twice as much as the cash rate.

Maybe I'm coming across as a silly old fool rambling, sorry if I am. I just reckon the XAO is very good value right now and I will continue to drip feed in. The lower it goes the better it is for me to get set.

I am not going to mention any names but during the GFC there were a couple of people who are much smarter than me on this forum who were calling the XAO dropping to 2100 and lower. THEY WERE ALL WRONG, it never happened then and I doubt it will happen now either.

 

[Triathlete]

The problem with getting out during drawdowns, is that you are more likely to miss out on money than save it.

Let's say you get out when the market has dropped 20% and get back in 6 months later:

Market went up:
1990 +10%
1992 +23%
1994 +6%
1997 +24%
2003 +18%
2011 +7%

Market went down:
2008 -36%

So net result over a 25 year period, is staying in has been significantly better.

(Similar results after 3 / 6 / 12 month periods after a 20% decline, take into account this period was largely a secular bull)

That may be correct if you are following the index.....but tell that to WOW shareholders or CBA at the moment who knows when they recover to there highs again.

For me it is all about the timing....always has been always will be....!!

 

[CanOz]

The problem with getting out during drawdowns, is that you are more likely to miss out on money than save it.

Let's say you get out when the market has dropped 20% and get back in 6 months later:

Market went up:
1990 +10%
1992 +23%
1994 +6%
1997 +24%
2003 +18%
2011 +7%

Market went down:
2008 -36%

So net result over a 25 year period, is staying in has been significantly better.

(Similar results after 3 / 6 / 12 month periods after a 20% decline, take into account this period was largely a secular bull)

This is flawed logic and sounds like survivor-ship bias. The index you are referring to is constantly reweighed. What do you mean by "stay in", stay in an index ETF?

 

[Triathlete]

I mentioned before that when the DOW was above 18,000 and the XAO 5,900 I liquidated all but one small parcel of NAB. Everything else went to cash as I was restructuring my super fund. I sold CBA and the others a long time ago, some with good profits and others breaking even. Since then all I have been doing is waiting for a decent correction, and I think that correction is here now.

But is it? I don't know and neither does anyone else and you technical guys are way ahead of me and still have widely differing view points. That is why I like reading all your stuff and then the disagreements that follow. I hang off all the posts a good half a dozen of you make and they are very interesting. But with all the wide and different views, in the end no one really knows anything so I revert to doing what I have been doing all my life. That is buying as cheap as I can for the long term.

To me the XAO is cheap right now, it may get cheaper or it may head north. I am trying to get the best prices I can buy staggering my buys. I am still largely in cash so a drop to 4930 or lower will produce even better prices/dividends. I am drip feeding small amounts in at a time.

People should not underestimate the power of the dividends. In 2 weeks 5 of my ETF's that I hold go ex dividend and they pay well. Those dividends then become another buy parcel for the future, again when I find the market good value.

You mentioned dividends being chopped during a down turn. During the GFC the dividends were chopped across my portfolio by about 25%, I can handle that as it will still be twice as much as the cash rate.

Maybe I'm coming across as a silly old fool rambling, sorry if I am. I just reckon the XAO is very good value right now and I will continue to drip feed in. The lower it goes the better it is for me to get set.

I am not going to mention any names but during the GFC there were a couple of people who are much smarter than me on this forum who were calling the XAO dropping to 2100 and lower. THEY WERE ALL WRONG, it never happened then and I doubt it will happen now either.

Hi Bill,
If you are happy with your strategy and it is working for you then keep on going with it no one is criticizing you at all, it is all about what works for you the best.

My point was more about how far do you let your stocks decrease in value before liquidating and keeping those gains of previous years.

In my own situation I make it a rule to get out after a 15% drop in any stock I may own. I do this because obviously there must be something wrong with the way I have analysed the stock or there may be further concerns within the company that I am not aware of that has caused the drop in share price.

To me it is a red flag so better that I am out protect my capital and ready to fight another day...but that is just how I do it...everyone to there own.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Falling off a cliff again. Idiots.

 

[MrBurns]

Hi Bill,
If you are happy with your strategy and it is working for you then keep on going with it no one is criticizing you at all, it is all about what works for you the best.

My point was more about how far do you let your stocks decrease in value before liquidating and keeping those gains of previous years.

In my own situation I make it a rule to get out after a 15% drop in any stock I may own. I do this because obviously there must be something wrong with the way I have analysed the stock or there may be further concerns within the company that I am not aware of that has caused the drop in share price.

To me it is a red flag so better that I am out protect my capital and ready to fight another day...but that is just how I do it...everyone to there own.

I used to do that and it always resulted in losses as the stocks always bounced back so I'm not selling this time no matter how long it takes to recover though this looks bad and it might be years.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Today was the last day to sell, especialy banks. Black Friday follows tomorrow. Goodbye 5000, will see you in the next decade.

Where is rimtas when there is blood in the streets?

 

[shouldaindex]

China PMI out 11.45AM tomorrow. Probably swings the market 1-2% depending on result.

Interesting sign was one of the China futures markets lost 3% in 4 hours starting from an hour before close. Wonder if they know something, or it was just taking risk off the table overnight.

 

[Porper]

Where is rimtas when there is blood in the streets?

View attachment 64408

If he could he'd be spouting from the rooftops I am sure. Not to say a crash is underway but a deeper correction for XJO looking more likely. Support under pressure now though...or it will be today.

 

[Triathlete]

I used to do that and it always resulted in losses as the stocks always bounced back so I'm not selling this time no matter how long it takes to recover though this looks bad and it might be years.

I take your point,but I have managed to stay on the right side of the ledger for now...

The problem I have with holding on to stocks that say lose 20-30% of there value is we may wait as you mentioned many years to recover...which then means we also lose opportunity cost with that money that is still tied up waiting for the recover...but that is just my opinion.

 

[MrBurns]

I take your point,but I have managed to stay on the right side of the ledger for now...

The problem I have with holding on to stocks that say lose 20-30% of there value is we may wait as you mentioned many years to recover...which then means we also lose opportunity cost with that money that is still tied up waiting for the recover...but that is just my opinion.

I've got plenty of cash but not keen to gamble much more on the ASX Casino just yet

 

[notting]

Pigging out.
It's a sweet spot.

No inflation, no interest on loans, no profits in cash, oil in the gutter, money everywhere.
Half wits are forking out $1400 for Iphones.
What more do you want!

 

[Bill M]

It seems to me that everytime we hit that 5,000 area on the XAO it just won't break down below and stay there. Like today it starts moving north again. I have not deployed my 4 remaining buy parcels yet, still waiting for lower numbers but they may never come.

I see Rimtas has not been online since the 17th. is he on a forced holiday? I'm missing the banter on the thread.

 

[cynic]

...
I see Rimtas has not been online since the 17th. is he on a forced holiday? I'm missing the banter on the thread.

I'd been wondering about this myself but wasn't game to ask as I feared I might inadvertently rub salt into wounds.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Weekly period XAO.