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Hey cynic!
XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
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Hey GB !
It's great to see you posting regularly again.
My past 12 months were my worst performance ever and my confidence has been reduced to an all time low, so it's great to have the confidence magician back on deck!
So do your thing GB! Work your magic!!
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I hung out on HC for a while. Something drew me back to look at speccies again, and HC is the place to be for that sort of thing. I spent ages trying to create a system for trading the sub 20c companies and came up empty. Actually, there was one system which looked ok, but it was hard to implement.
Then I looked at trading sentiment on HC as a contrarian indicator. I started scraping data and graphing it, but that was useless. What I really needed to do was scrape key words (pos vs neg). There's definitely some money to be made there, but sophisticated sentiment analysis software costs big $$$$. Mostly it's used by corporations.
In the end I came to the conclusion that the only way I could profit in that end of the market is by using FA, spreading bets across a big range of stocks and holding long term. Then you just need one huge winner. Maybe there's another way, but that was my conclusion. I didn't want to do that.
So I just went back to my old systems.
Re: confidence, I wrote something on another thread which might be of interest, possibly. It was a reply to the guy who seemed to be sabotaging himself. I've done that myself.
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Hey Gringotts,
Give me a random day between 2 - 5 years ago, and I'll show you the first 50 of something.
Give me a random day between 2 - 5 years ago, and I'll show you the first 50 of something.
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10-10-2013
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I just went through the search results for that day for the first 50 posts and there were 29 different stocks, these are their returns since:
19 stocks lower
1 stock same
9 stocks higher
16 stocks 40%+ lower
3 stocks 100%+ higher.
So as your own research suggested, from this data set you need at least a double bagger (11% chance) to cancel out the majority (55%) that lose over 40%.
19 stocks lower
1 stock same
9 stocks higher
16 stocks 40%+ lower
3 stocks 100%+ higher.
So as your own research suggested, from this data set you need at least a double bagger (11% chance) to cancel out the majority (55%) that lose over 40%.
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What about if you do the same for Fibo's stocks?
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In XAO observations:
You can see the bottoms marked with black dots.
The following day the XAO made 129 points, 82 points, 77 points, 69 points (today)
So not a surprise, even though no real reason to do so fundamentally.
These rallies each lasted 3 or 4 days.
Trend is your friend I guess.
I've been reading TA people say the triangle breakout is due soon though.
You can see the bottoms marked with black dots.
The following day the XAO made 129 points, 82 points, 77 points, 69 points (today)
So not a surprise, even though no real reason to do so fundamentally.
These rallies each lasted 3 or 4 days.
Trend is your friend I guess.
I've been reading TA people say the triangle breakout is due soon though.
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Nah you are thinking wrong. Sometime in the last bull phase I went through every Stock thread and ranked the amount of post to the prices in the next 3 and 6 months.
What I found was once the stock became known and popular, even loved, it was too late. The returns were negative from there. Unfortunately I cannot find the spreadsheet as it was a heap of manual work (which I despise) but the more post the worst the price got.
You need to trade stuff no one talks about and short stuff everyone knows about.
Yep, Joe Blow did a blow job and blowed me out the crowd. His statement was, quote: " I do not want you to scare people, you are too pessimistic, people don't like you". God bless Joe.
Looks like the Crash that is just around the corner will be promoted as "not posible scenario" untill it finaly ends. And brainwashing from permabulls will keep people in stocks untill they are broke.
Everyone must now be shorting stocks to their eyeballs as the strongest part of the crash is on the horizon, which brings XAO down 30% in a matter of weeks. I like December for this...And as Porper changed his count again to bearish, I must add that short term a rebound is quite a possible scenario-last time to snap shorts at sky high prices.
Che che
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No, I told you to stop insulting others and attacking them personally. If you are going to quote me then at least be honest about it.
No Joe, you must be honest and declare about the scheme how you sort out people who must be banned from social interaction. You must not be a moderator as you are one sided. I put my vote to blow you out from this role. Step aside, you are not doing your job you are paid for.
Insulting and attacking...you must be joking. If the world contained just these kind of "insults and attacks", it would be a paradise. I am sure that the "victims" will survive. If you can't just die or do not cry like babies.
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I'm not going to sidetrack this thread any further. However, I will say this: I issue warnings or infractions solely on the basis of behaviour. This is why you received a temporary account suspension, and if you can't get past it and move on, and you persist in insulting and attacking others here at ASF then it will happen again. So, you decide.
Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Attacking moderators now. Actually you are quite a comedian Rimtas. That made me laugh. Best post you've made.
I thought you were attacked and insulted. This just proves my point in re to Joe as he banned me just on this basis.
Joe, it is time to put post rating system in this forum. You know-plus/minus, thumbs up/down or whatever you can think of. It works quite well on other forums, leaving the author of the post knowing what posts community thinks are good and which one not. If I see no one likes me writing, I just disappear in shame.
skc
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That's a no brainer. Too bad you can't always find borrow for them.
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I see that whilst the lows have all been similar, each high has been a bit lower than the previous high as shown on your chart.
As to the issues raised by others about moderation on ASF, I've been on this forum for quite a long time now, made plenty of posts and learned quite a bit from others. In all that time I haven't found Joe to be in any way problematic as either a moderator or owner of this forum.
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So, through whatever short term events I'm still keen on 4700s end of October.
What is interesting is that early November has a few key events. 3 of the Big Banks report yearly earnings in the first 9 days (with Q4 taking in all the China volatility) and some discussion of a Melbourne Cup day RBA move.
Also the past few years have seen bottoms in December before a Santa Rally, this is a bit later than typically where October or November have been more common.
What is interesting is that early November has a few key events. 3 of the Big Banks report yearly earnings in the first 9 days (with Q4 taking in all the China volatility) and some discussion of a Melbourne Cup day RBA move.
Also the past few years have seen bottoms in December before a Santa Rally, this is a bit later than typically where October or November have been more common.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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There is also the pattern of an upside down pennant which is a continuation pattern. Good case for lower following the U.S.
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Still not breaking the lows. It might today or tonight but it's held up incredibly well around here.
Accumulation?
Accumulation?
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