XAO Banter Thread

[Gringotts Bank]

Ohhh boy...It's happening again. Breakout from the triangle could see a measured move. Long term trendline with multiple touches in green also sitting there. Overall, not good.

 

[Trembling Hand]

So we are down 2.5% today. For all the huff and puff of September we are still only down 4% more than half of that is today's move. Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%. Looks like the selling this month may have slowed down...........? :run:

 

[Gringotts Bank]

So we are down 2.5% today. For all the huff and puff of September we are still only down 4% more than half of that is today's move. Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%. Looks like the selling this month may have slowed down...........? :run:

Yeh it's been choppy. I feel like the market is keen to see what a close sub-5000 feels like at some point this week or next. Even if it's just a taster.

 

[sinner]

So we are down 2.5% today. For all the huff and puff of September we are still only down 4% more than half of that is today's move. Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%. Looks like the selling this month may have slowed down...........? :run:

The chart is very weak on a relative basis to other currency adjusted (e.g. US) indices though.

We didn't really bounce and bear momentum is significantly stronger.

 

[Porper]

Yeh it's been choppy. I feel like the market is keen to see what a close sub-5000 feels like at some point this week or next. Even if it's just a taster.

I am not sure our market is capable of bucking the trend if the U.S indices continue to retrace. On past performance you'd have to say not anyway.

What will be the significant pattern here though? The triangle or the massive stopping volume seen at the 25th of August lows. We'll soon know. A break lower offers 4527 - 4188.

 

[skc]

An interesting article comparing the current state of play with 2011.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/greg_tolpigin.asp?a=AV&ai=36709

To me it doesn't necessarily mean that this guy is right... it just means one need to be open to all possibilities.

 

[CanOz]

An interesting article comparing the current state of play with 2011.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/greg_tolpigin.asp?a=AV&ai=36709

To me it doesn't necessarily mean that this guy is right... it just means one need to be open to all possibilities.

I agree this looks like a good possibility, I've seen some thing very similar from twitter...

The SPI seems reluctant to fall impulsively and seems to want to grind lower. This seems to me to be a situation where the market is too short already...

I can't help but wonder if the SPI is being led more by China mainland, as the charts look more similar than any overseas charts or the HSI ... We all know that there has been massive intervention in the mainland markets, but how long can they put off the inevitable....

 

[CanOz]

Ohhh boy...It's happening again. Breakout from the triangle could see a measured move. Long term trendline with multiple touches in green also sitting there. Overall, not good.

FWIW, my target is 4700 based on the consolidation pattern and the low volume area.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

FWIW, my target is 4700 based on the consolidation pattern and the low volume area.

I'm at 4600 (using Bulkowski's measurement).

Sitting right on the line at the close - now 5 touches, so it seems to be on everyone's radar.

Weekly period chart.

 

[shouldaindex]

I was expecting a quiet period, so today caught me off guard.

My main fundamental indicators suggest -20% from peak (4770) is a high probability and this trend line is on target for later October.

The -20% to -25% range is a popular one when a recession or financial crisis isn't happening (yet) but a bear market has been reached.

From there it's mainly about assessing data to play the probabilities of that occurring as the historical swing on that outcome can be huge (EG. GFC vs no GFC 12 months later -50% vs +20%)

 

[Wysiwyg]

Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.

Why would it matter? A dollar lost on your account is still a dollar lost no matter what anyone else has achieved. Why wouldn't you just concentrate on keeping/making your own money/gains?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%.

Anyone want to toss the coin and see which way the 2% move will be tomorrow? :

 

[DeepState]

Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.

Yes. I am long biased. Equity positions have been a maximum of 75% of target exposure over the last year as valuations in the US looked rich. Positions in Australia were cut by 2/3rds in July and by half in Europe/UK at about the same time. Currency exposure to the USD buffered the pain, as have bond positions. Still, there is pain.

Have recently rebuilt the international equity positions to full weight and remixed currency exposures (less USD and more EUR and JPY..thankfully). Overall, this move has been pretty flat. Will be re-hedging extreme events tonight to ensure my buttocks aren't handed to me in the coming period.

All within tolerances. I pursue heavily risk managed approaches so the losses can be absorbed.

Risk assessment:
Hours of sleep lost: 2. Blood lost: None. Cold sweat perspired: 1/4 tea spoon. Tears shed: None.
Outcome: Within tolerances.

Where are the balls of steel buyers??? 15%+ Peak to trough. Big statements when markets are up. Silence now.

 

[sinner]

Anyone want to toss the coin and see which way the 2% move will be tomorrow? :

I'll put a dollar on panic selling from Asian accounts all day.

 

[skc]

Anyone want to toss the coin and see which way the 2% move will be tomorrow? :

How much of this was real bounce and how much was quarter end window dressing?

The mainstream media however has changed recently from "just a correction" to "worse to come". Lines up with the false break view pretty well.

Still holding very little directionally overnight.

I was expecting a quiet period

In Sept we have average daily change of 67 points on the XJO. Half the days have daily ranges >100 pts. It was one of the more volatile times in a while.

Hardly a time to expect a quiet period.

 

[peter2]

If I tossed the coin it would land on it's edge. The market (XAO) is right on the edge now. Which way will it fall? Heck who cares, so long as it moves big when it does.

@wysi: For sure we're having "haircuts", but hair grows back (unless you've lost it all). The portfolio's of medium and longer term holders are down for sure, but that doesn't matter if they're keeping their downside exposure within their personal risk tolerances. My medium term portfolio has been transferred to weekly charts. That means, my exit stops are now based on weekly charts not daily charts due to the increase in volatility.

Small traders (like us) recognise the trend is down and have done something about it. We've recognised the increase in the daily volatility and have done something about it. A haircut is much better than hair removal.

 

[sinner]

Where are the balls of steel buyers??? 15%+ Peak to trough. Big statements when markets are up. Silence now.

I buy a little, or take off puts as appropriate, to maintain desired exposure as prices decline. Not sure it qualifies me for balls of steel though

Wasn't Bill M buying a few parcels too?

 

[DeepState]

Why would it matter? A dollar lost on your account is still a dollar lost no matter what anyone else has achieved. Why wouldn't you just concentrate on keeping/making your own money/gains?

Because misery loves company.

 

[DeepState]

I buy a little, or take off puts as appropriate, to maintain desired exposure as prices decline. Not sure it qualifies me for balls of steel though

Wasn't Bill M buying a few parcels too?

Strategic rebalancing. Always suspected you had good discipline.

Bill M has not yet deployed from what has been disclosed. Still, a good call to have exited some positions at better levels. Not sure how he liquidates everything yet still has a bunch of ETFs going ex-div. Perhaps they are non-equity underlying like some of mine.