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Just a bit of a mischievous comparison to 2011:
XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
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First day I've read bull sentiment on social media.
Just going through the phases now, playing out a bit of time.
Result to me seems inevitable but could be wrong.
Just going through the phases now, playing out a bit of time.
Result to me seems inevitable but could be wrong.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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I reckon this volatility will be wearing traders and investors out. Disappointing to see shares rise sharply and fall back the next day on a regular basis. The consensus being market down.
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Trend lines suggest plenty of time before we hit support or resistance.
I'd say by late October we'll either be testing 4700 (or less likely 5400) as they fit nicely from April.
I'd say by late October we'll either be testing 4700 (or less likely 5400) as they fit nicely from April.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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So everyone ready to dump en masse after Planet America raises interest rates or is a slow release the Australian way? 
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In post #1906 September 7 we looked at the DAX as cycles suggested higher prices to come. We had a big rally on Wednesday and since the index has failed to make new lows and the pattern continues to build.
Nothing has changed (see cycles attached) and the 3 daily cycles have clearly bottomed and are pointed up. As such any further downside should be limited as prices have already reached an extreme relative to the nominal trend. That is not to say that they can't go lower as cycles lows don't always coincide with price lows. However historically on the chart prices nearly always revert back to the nominal level and beyond after reaching an extreme, so it's a higher probability that prices will move to higher levels before the larger trend down starts again.
The same can be said for the SP500. Although we had a big move down in the XAO today I suspect if we use the other indices as guide it should follow, nevertheless taking the cycles analysis at face value the cycles are pointed up.
Nothing has changed (see cycles attached) and the 3 daily cycles have clearly bottomed and are pointed up. As such any further downside should be limited as prices have already reached an extreme relative to the nominal trend. That is not to say that they can't go lower as cycles lows don't always coincide with price lows. However historically on the chart prices nearly always revert back to the nominal level and beyond after reaching an extreme, so it's a higher probability that prices will move to higher levels before the larger trend down starts again.
The same can be said for the SP500. Although we had a big move down in the XAO today I suspect if we use the other indices as guide it should follow, nevertheless taking the cycles analysis at face value the cycles are pointed up.
Your cycles are nothing more than Bolinger Bands. Or just standard deviations.
They do not operate when market is in a third wave, you should know this. You said you are always missing third ones-that is the reason why, you smoke too much cycles..
Try to fit you cycles into this one...
They do not operate when market is in a third wave, you should know this. You said you are always missing third ones-that is the reason why, you smoke too much cycles..
Try to fit you cycles into this one...
Here is a chart with other type of so called "cycles",
Bolinger Bands are neutral, but will shift in any direction depending on price action.
10 period Standart Deviation is pointing for sharp upward move (meaning prices down). Can stay a few days on the line, but volatility is coming for sure from here, and all surprises are in a direction of a trend, not against it, like Prechter anticipated in 2010, and Gartley in 2015.
Bolinger Bands are neutral, but will shift in any direction depending on price action.
10 period Standart Deviation is pointing for sharp upward move (meaning prices down). Can stay a few days on the line, but volatility is coming for sure from here, and all surprises are in a direction of a trend, not against it, like Prechter anticipated in 2010, and Gartley in 2015.
Weekly STD suggest that the upcoming decline in prices will be so devastating, that STD will surpass 2009 high(in yellow). Just look how strong it is right now-market 3weeks is drifting sideways, but is unable to rally. Turnbull will change his name to Turnbear after this crash, I am pretty sure.
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Special note re post #1926.
Trading Bands in upper panes of charts are not Bollinger Bands. Bollinger bands have the following characteristics :
1: They are lagging
2: Bands are price std deviations away from a moving average
3. They appear more effective in sideways markets compared to strongly trending markets. In strongly trending markets price has a tendency to hug the envelope making it less effective.
4. There is no cyclical information in Bollinger bands apart from the moving average line, the period of which represents the sum of all the cycles below the period length.
In comparison what I attached has:
1: No lag and is forward looking. Looking closely you will see pink nominal level is in phase with price. As such it has forward looking capabilities especially when price reaches extremes of outer bands.
2. Trading Bands are not Std deviations of price from a moving average. but they are of something else.
3. There is cyclical information available from the 3 cycle decompositions in the panes below which greatly aid in making forward looking analysis available with high probability as has been the case previously ans given last nights moves in the indices looks like it might work out as expected.
With reference to the criticism of my picture by the earlier poster, it's totally irrelevant to the topic of this thread and I please ask the moderators to step in and put an end to this.
Trading Bands in upper panes of charts are not Bollinger Bands. Bollinger bands have the following characteristics :
1: They are lagging
2: Bands are price std deviations away from a moving average
3. They appear more effective in sideways markets compared to strongly trending markets. In strongly trending markets price has a tendency to hug the envelope making it less effective.
4. There is no cyclical information in Bollinger bands apart from the moving average line, the period of which represents the sum of all the cycles below the period length.
In comparison what I attached has:
1: No lag and is forward looking. Looking closely you will see pink nominal level is in phase with price. As such it has forward looking capabilities especially when price reaches extremes of outer bands.
2. Trading Bands are not Std deviations of price from a moving average. but they are of something else.
3. There is cyclical information available from the 3 cycle decompositions in the panes below which greatly aid in making forward looking analysis available with high probability as has been the case previously ans given last nights moves in the indices looks like it might work out as expected.
With reference to the criticism of my picture by the earlier poster, it's totally irrelevant to the topic of this thread and I please ask the moderators to step in and put an end to this.
Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Agree, getting ridiculous now...not just on this thread either.
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Criticism is acceptable as long as it has some kind of reasonable basis and is intended to be constructive rather than malicious. I agree that in this case it had a more spiteful tone to it, which is unfortunate.
I trust that from this point on any personal animosity can be put to one side for the sake of the discussion and we can move forward in a constructive way.
I trust that from this point on any personal animosity can be put to one side for the sake of the discussion and we can move forward in a constructive way.
This is a key phrase. Just something else.
What is that something else? How it is generated?
Looks clear to me that Joe Blow is the captain of the crew which consists of Porper and the like. Attacks from numerous commentators to my front carry defence only from me alone, but attacks from my guns just shakes everyone. They just fire their small pistols all the time and when the big bullet comes back from me they just go to cry to dady.
Looks like ASF has been in a dream state for a while and I will shake it to the ground. Enough licking each others asses. If one said something the rest just goes like echoes.
A message for mods and site owners:
I made a few other socionomic experiments on other forums like this in other countires. In the end, they all ended up with increased attendance, which turned out to increased asvertisement, and thus for a bigger profits for a site. Just stop and think about this for a moment before judging me.
Cheers.
Looks like ASF has been in a dream state for a while and I will shake it to the ground. Enough licking each others asses. If one said something the rest just goes like echoes.
A message for mods and site owners:
I made a few other socionomic experiments on other forums like this in other countires. In the end, they all ended up with increased attendance, which turned out to increased asvertisement, and thus for a bigger profits for a site. Just stop and think about this for a moment before judging me.
Cheers.
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Rimtas, the same request was made of you that was made of everyone else: no insults, no personal attacks, engage in civil and constructive discussion and debate. It applies universally to all at ASF. Always has and always will.
I do not wish to sidetrack this thread any further, so if everyone could get back to discussing the topic at hand that would be appreciated.
I do not wish to sidetrack this thread any further, so if everyone could get back to discussing the topic at hand that would be appreciated.
Bill M
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As this is the XAO Banter thread I will throw in my plan and 
worth.
Last year when we had higher levels on the XAO I cashed in a lot of my stocks mostly because I was closing down one super fund and going into another. I also took good profits off the table and crystallised them and banked the cash.
Then I established the new super fund and placed all my cash in there. The markets were quite toppy, I thought the DOW in particular was overvalued (over 18,000), low dividends and a lot of hoo ha about it climbing higher, I didn't buy it. The XAO was also up around 5,900 points after a good run. Nothing else but my own observations told me that was not the time to get set in stocks.
Now the XAO has corrected 15% and I have started buying. I buy high dividend ETF's that hold ASX stocks. All of these ETF's are going in my super fund. These ETF's go up and down with the XAO (approximately that is). I do not know when nor where bottom will be but right now at these low levels these ETF's are paying me 6 to 8% partly franked distributions. To me that is extremely good returns.
As I can not know where the market bottoms I have a strategy of straggling my buys. IE. I will buy 6 parcels of stocks over a period of time until I have exhausted the amount that I want to invest. I've bought 2 parcels at 5,100 levels already.
It is important to note, I am buying my stocks for my super fund for the super long term period. Read that as never to sell. It will bought to provide me income for the rest of my life within my super fund.
There is a good chance that the XJO could slip to 4930 or even worse to 4860, or it could just bounce from here too. At 4930 I will buy another parcel, at 4860 I will buy a further parcel, the re-evaluate. If it races north to 6,000 again I will stand by again. I only buy when the value is there and right now it's coming up to distribution time as well so a further drop for me would be a good thing, cheers.
worth.Last year when we had higher levels on the XAO I cashed in a lot of my stocks mostly because I was closing down one super fund and going into another. I also took good profits off the table and crystallised them and banked the cash.
Then I established the new super fund and placed all my cash in there. The markets were quite toppy, I thought the DOW in particular was overvalued (over 18,000), low dividends and a lot of hoo ha about it climbing higher, I didn't buy it. The XAO was also up around 5,900 points after a good run. Nothing else but my own observations told me that was not the time to get set in stocks.
Now the XAO has corrected 15% and I have started buying. I buy high dividend ETF's that hold ASX stocks. All of these ETF's are going in my super fund. These ETF's go up and down with the XAO (approximately that is). I do not know when nor where bottom will be but right now at these low levels these ETF's are paying me 6 to 8% partly franked distributions. To me that is extremely good returns.
As I can not know where the market bottoms I have a strategy of straggling my buys. IE. I will buy 6 parcels of stocks over a period of time until I have exhausted the amount that I want to invest. I've bought 2 parcels at 5,100 levels already.
It is important to note, I am buying my stocks for my super fund for the super long term period. Read that as never to sell. It will bought to provide me income for the rest of my life within my super fund.
There is a good chance that the XJO could slip to 4930 or even worse to 4860, or it could just bounce from here too. At 4930 I will buy another parcel, at 4860 I will buy a further parcel, the re-evaluate. If it races north to 6,000 again I will stand by again. I only buy when the value is there and right now it's coming up to distribution time as well so a further drop for me would be a good thing, cheers.
Triathlete
Keep it Simple..!
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Hi Bill,
Everyone has their own strategy and knowone really knows where the market is headed,but if we had another crash like the GFC would you really be comfortable with watching your capital being eroded 60-70%? and possibly dividends being cut in that situation and then waiting years to recover.It has been 8 years already and the market still below where it was before the GFC.
It would make more sense to me anyway to get out of the market while it is going down and preserve your capital and then get back in when the uptrend starts again.
Bill M
Self Funded Retiree
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Hi Bill,
Everyone has their own strategy and knowone really knows where the market is headed,but if we had another crash like the GFC would you really be comfortable with watching your capital being eroded 60-70%? and possibly dividends being cut in that situation and then waiting years to recover.It has been 8 years already and the market still below where it was before the GFC.
It would make more sense to me anyway to get out of the market while it is going down and preserve your capital and then get back in when the uptrend starts again.
I've been through it all many times before, been investing in stocks for nearly 30 years. I am quite well cashed up and a 60 to 70% crash won't make any difference to my lifestyle. If that scenario unfolded I would unlock more cash and deploy it in the market just like I did in 2008 and 2009. There is a thread called something like "The good news thread", back in 2009 I clearly outlined 4 buys that I did when the markets crashed 55%, just one off the top of my head was buying CBA at $26. man that was good. Big crashes = big opportunities. Yes we are all different, as I said it is for my super, it is for ever, I do not need the capital, I need the long term returns.
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get back in when the uptrend starts again.
Like yesterday?
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A mix sounds pretty good to me.
A portion of your funds to buy dips looking for income generation
A portion of your funds for trend following
A portion in defensive assets
A portion of overseas exposure.
etc.
A portion of your funds to buy dips looking for income generation
A portion of your funds for trend following
A portion in defensive assets
A portion of overseas exposure.
etc.
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