XAO Banter Thread

[shouldaindex]

Interesting to see Shanghai, Hang Seng, Nikkei all up. US, Europe Futures up.

XAO slightly down, does look like the recession narrative in the papers today is keeping a lid on things.

Wonder if there will be a late run.

 

[rimtas]

by the sounds of it nothing works apart from what you do.

The discussion was about Third wave, where everything stops working. At the times where market is not in a Third wave(or C), there appears there are many other methods that looks like they are "working" . You can see gartley, you can see butterfly, you can see elephant or snake(depends on what you smoke), but everyone who has eyes can tell that market moves in waves.

During a crash(up or down, doesn't matter) all butterflies are flying away, gartley disappear, snakes gets underwater and RSI (and the likes) are stabbing their heads in sand. But waves are still present. Whether you understand them or not is the different question.

Elliot was looser, by the way. Like Porper, who is saying prayers every morning by looking at his photo.

 

[gartley]

Firstly let's look at a bit of history Rimtas.

HM Gartley was a floor trader and was in the business a good 20 years before Elliott started looking at the stock market. The pattern Gartley talks about on page 222 of his manual I personally like because it offers good risk/reward characteristics.
The beauty of these patterns is that they are best used as set ups at the peak of counter trend moves within a larger trend. And if you are going to be any good at this business you need to position in the direction of the one larger trend at the end of counter trend moves because it offers the best R/R.

It doesn't work ALL the time but then again nothing else does either.
There are many other variations of this pattern such as crab, butterfly, AB=CD, bat, cypher, 3 drives to a top, shark, 5-0 etc to name a few.

In so far as cycles analysis, Gartley patterns and other analysis being derivatives of EWT that is pure nonsense.
Example: What do Fast Fourier Transforms and cycle decompositions have to do with Elliott Wave???
A big fat ZERO!!!
They are derived from a price series.....
So cycles don't work in a 3rd wave huh??? Multiple cycles coming together ARE the 3rd wave!

Elliott Waves Analysis is ambiguous. If you don't quantify your wave counts and know which is the highest probability wave count then most likely you are guessing and may as well toss a coin...

You may say that you will know by INVALIDATING a wave count because of violation of price structure. GREAT!! But that in itself is lag and you may as well use the same lagging technical indicators you are bagging))))

 

[rimtas]

What do Fast Fourier Transforms and cycle decompositions have to do with Elliott Wave???

And the answer is....

They are derived from a price series.....

Anything that is derived from price and time series basically is derived from Wave Principle, because constantly changing price moving in time creates waves.
You can use those two parameters to create thousands, if not millions of indicators and trading methods, but the underlying principle remains the same. Why bother yourself with anything that is an "outsider", when you can work with main method directly? It is rhetorical, no need to answer.

 

[gartley]

Assuming you are correct Rimtas do you think you have any more of an edge than anybody else using Elliott Wave??

Because from what I have seen of Elliotticians even on this site that is not the case. And if the best Elliott gurus like Prechter have got wrong repeatedly for the last 25 years then what hope do you have?
Why bother with anthing else you say? The best traders at EWI Jim Martens and Jeffrey Kennedy swear by other indicators and analysis to compliment EWT

 

[gartley]

Some weeks ago the cycles projection suggested a rally in the indices that would carry into September. Since then the lows have not been breached in the XAO although have had a very strong re test the last few days.

I am looking at some other indices and in particular the DAX. Attached cycles analysis of 8hr bars suggest another leg up to new recovery highs. This also makes sense with a possible developing elliott wave zig zag pattern with contracting triangle wave b.
If so our index has a good chance of getting a boost for the rest of this week and next week.

IF this does develop, then it may set up nicely for another in some weeks especially if our index can get back above 5400

 

[Porper]

Elliot was looser, by the way. Like Porper, who is saying prayers every morning by looking at his photo.

Rimtas is just playing around i.m.o. He has admitted some of his posts have been for "effect", i.e he is just trying to get a response. Although he tends to use this excuse when one of his many predictions goes wrong.

He claims to be an Elliottician and then posts above that Elliott was a loser...or as he put it "a looser". He doesn't post during the day so obviously has a job...or goes to school; point being he can't be that profitable as he doesn't trade for a living. My last post on the subject, let's just get back onto the XAO.

 

[shouldaindex]

XAO has liked it's 5050 and 5100 for the past week.

Had many reasons to close lower (Shanghai, Hang Seng, Dow Jones, Fed, China, GDP) but didn't.

Just wondering if we need a bit of a bull trap for a while.

 

[gartley]

Agree totally Porper.

I will not involve myself either with it. Unless it’s something new and unique about the application of EW that helps build a case for high probability trading setups then it’s worth looking into it further. There is nothing new here, same old, same old…….

Who cares if something is a derivative or not of EW. The bottom line is how we can best use a method or various methods together to give us an edge and make some bucks…….

 

[rimtas]

Assuming you are correct Rimtas do you think you have any more of an edge than anybody else using Elliott Wave??

No, I didn't said that. If one has been in markets for a long time, even without knowing what EW is they can develop a good sense about market behaviour. Because EW patterns and waves repeat and repeat, are always the same, one develops an instinct to grasp waves and their tendencies.
In regards to your previous comment about gartley being discovered 20 y ahead of EW, I can reply just like this-things that are not yet discovered, still exists. Waves in markets (and overall) existed as long as history extends.

Also, my explanation about Elliott why he was a looser-because he saw things, but never attempted to use them in his own benefit. He died poor and alone. Thus he was a looser.

And of course I can't say anything wrong about Prechter. He predicted sucsessfully many markets to this day(basically all of them-commodities, bonds, metals, curencies), except stock market. But even in stock market he pointed out how extreme bearish underlying things are, that are far away from current market valuation, making this 2009-15 rally a bear wave. While the rest of the world just baited on a new bull, that will last for decades. You need to dig deep to understand relationships between all the groups. This would not be possible without knowledge of Wave Principle and the underlying socionomic factors.



And reply to Porper-I do not see anything wrong with having a full time job. You will live longer compared to the lifestyle if you spend 10h near the screen every day. There is a phase in life where you inevitably go living from your investments, but this can't be reached from a daytrading perspective. First you need to aquire enough capital, and sure way to do this is not to day trade. Everyone who thinks that he can live from daytrading is living in a dream.

 

[gartley]

Everyone who thinks that he can live from daytrading is living in a dream.

Well myself and others here must be living a dream then........ and also proof that you are wrong.

Actually I liked my job of 30 years in the auto industry until Mr Abbott hammered the final nails of it's coffin.
I have traded profitably every year since 2004. The only reason I trade full time now is because I am 50 and it's harder to find work.
Since starting this, I set a realistic goal with the funds at my disposal to replace my income which was done.
In my opinion in order to make it work, perserverance and treating it like a business is imperative. Even if one is a break even trader for a long time, the best they can do is "keep going" because they are most likely nearly there with some fine tuning of their strategies.

On the plus side if one is able to derive an income from this business it does give you one important benefit and that is "freedom of time" compared to the average worker.

 

[rimtas]

Yea, sounds like a true story, grabing everyone to the heart... Sometimes what is not achievable in life can be achievable in a virtual reality, facebook, ASF-everyone is now up to the life that is imaginary, but when repeated for a long time and got aproved from other people, it sounds like real reality. Everyone thinks that making money in markets is easy, and almost everyone is "trading for a living". Quit your job, take your savings to the market and the future is bright.

Well, my brother was a CEO of a big Scandinavian investment bank in Europe, so I got a chance to see clients trading statistics. There were none trading constantly profitable, no matter where markets were heading. And the broker who takes on the calls for orders described most of the traders like this: " Near the tops, they are all investors, Near the bottoms, they are all traders".
Happy dreaming.

 

[cynic]

Re: XAO Banter Threa

FTSE I'm good. I am just so FTSEing good that anything anyone else can do, I can do FTSEing better!

Whenever I find myself incapable, it simply means that the task must be impossible, because nobody could possibly do anything better than I, because I know that I am so FTSEing good!

Anybody claiming otherwise must be FTSEing dreaming!!

 

[rimtas]

I still remember one trader, who constantly was showing his statements over the 5 years, and he was profitable. He was posting his trades even during night time(he traded FX), and he said that the first thing when he gets up in the morning is not to go to the toilet, but to the laptop to check quotes. He was overhauled my market.

But one day there was a massive movement against him and somehow he was caught, geting an MC. He tried to recover later from -90% drop, but admitted that his 5 year work was busted. Sleepless nights, family life, health, everything was ruined due to the confidence he developed and allowed himself to take bigger risks in his MM. Since then he disappeared from the forums.
Overconfident day traders always ends up like this-one day will be crucial. You can go on for years, but just start to relax and market will kick your ass.

 

[cynic]

I still remember one trader, who constantly was showing his statements over the 5 years, and he was profitable. He was posting his trades even during night time(he traded FX), and he said that the first thing when he gets up in the morning is not to go to the toilet, but to the laptop to check quotes. He was overhauled my market.

But one day there was a massive movement against him and somehow he was caught, geting an MC. He tried to recover later from -90% drop, but admitted that his 5 year work was busted. Sleepless nights, family life, health, everything was ruined due to the confidence he developed and allowed himself to take bigger risks in his MM. Since then he disappeared from the forums.
Overconfident day traders always ends up like this-one day will be crucial. You can go on for years, but just start to relax and market will kick your ass.

From what you're describing, the failure resulted from loss of discipline and was otherwise unrelated to the trader's choice of timeframe.

 

[shouldaindex]

Be interest to know if anyone thinks 5050 will support for the rest of year?

 

[cynic]

Be interest to know if anyone thinks 5050 will support for the rest of year?

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'm fifty fifty on this one at the moment but would rather view it with twenty twenty hindsight.

 

[Tightwad]

5150.. OU812...1984..

 

[Logique]

Textbook setup for short term trading - in a Bull market you'd be loading up on the long side.

Interesting pattern development too, is it a flag, is it a down sloping wedge, or neither...

My hat's off to anyone with the bravura to to trade this, but plenty are, up above 5200 this morning.

 

[PennD]

I still remember one trader, who constantly was showing his statements over the 5 years, and he was profitable. He was posting his trades even during night time(he traded FX), and he said that the first thing when he gets up in the morning is not to go to the toilet, but to the laptop to check quotes. He was overhauled my market.

But one day there was a massive movement against him and somehow he was caught, geting an MC. He tried to recover later from -90% drop, but admitted that his 5 year work was busted. Sleepless nights, family life, health, everything was ruined due to the confidence he developed and allowed himself to take bigger risks in his MM. Since then he disappeared from the forums.
Overconfident day traders always ends up like this-one day will be crucial. You can go on for years, but just start to relax and market will kick your ass.

Dood, that could be said for any profession. How many builders have i seen over the years going really well, over extend, then get caught out only to be left bankrupt?
Your fear mungering...